We did this with the starters on Wednesday. We looked at six key numbers that can help us both explain why some pitchers succeed and some fail and hopefully help us predict progression or regression. Reliever numbers in particular are ver volatile. When you condense 180 innings into 50 or 60, you are going to have some pretty wild swings back and forth in certain numbers.
Last time, we noted that BABIP, left on base percentage, and home runs per fly ball tend to be a little more volatile than the
other numbers. So, we key in on chase rate, hard hit rate, and contact rate as generally more stable and maybe more predictive in whether a pitcher will be good, average, or bad. As I have each and every time, I am listing our numbers below and their league averages for your perusal.
- Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.
- Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.
- BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.
- Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.
- HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.
- LOB%: It is pretty self-explanatory. It is the number of runners that get stranded on base. The league average tends to be around 70 percent. Of course, there is some debate as to whether pitchers control that or not.
Bryan Abreu
Abreu raises some questions that need answering from those of us that crunch numbers. Can pitchers control how many runners they strand? Abreu has consistently stranded well above the league average, so maybe he is just more adept at doing it. Maybe it has something to do with low contact rates. Maybe there is a clutch gene that these numbers just can’t touch. Still, if we remove that number entirely we see what Abreu’s superpower is. He misses bats and does so at a very high rate.
The difficulty with Abreu is that some of the other numbers point to regression. Hard hit rates have steadily gotten higher and BABIP has gotten higher with it. He also might have lucked out a little with home runs last season. Add that all up and he probably regresses some this season. The contact rates will step keep him effective overall though.
Enyel de los Santos
de los Santos is the definition of an average pitcher. He is also a perfect example of how an average pitcher can look really good in short bursts. That was the case in 2023 when he was with Cleveland. de los Santos will start on the injured list, but I am guessing he will figure into the bullpen somehow. Like with most middle relievers, you are praying to the baseball gods for good batted ball luck.
Josh Hader
The main difference between Hader and Abreu is the chase rate. Hader gets guys to chase that slider more often than Abreu gets chase on his. Otherwise, they are similar pitchers. They limit contact and depend on high stranded rates and low BABIP rates to thrive. Hader will begin the season on the injured list, but hopefully should miss the minimum amount of time and resume his role as the team’s closer. There is little reason to expect anything other than what he has done in recent seasons.
Bryan King
Monty Python did “Life of Brian” where an ordinary guy was mistaken for the savior. King has the look of an ordinary guy that did extraordinary things last season largely due to an astronomically high left on base rate. Add in a little lower BABIP than normal and you can see where this is going. Predicting more of the same from King would be tantamount to “magical thinking.” He has fairly average rates otherwise, so expecting average is probably in the cards. Average relievers have value, but they probably shouldn’t be pitching after the seventh inning in close games.
Peter Lambert
Lambert pitched overseas last season, so some of the numbers are missing and some of these are minor league numbers. He is a high octane arm that might provide some quality innings if given the opportunity. He has been sparkling so far in camp, so he has a decent chance to make the team. If you think in terms of Kaleb Ort then you are probably on the right wavelength. The Astros have made a living off of these guys and he might be another that serves them well until he reverts back into a pumpkin.
Roddery Munoz
Munoz’s spring has been a fascinating microcosm in the life of a relief pitcher. His first few outings were rocky and so his overall numbers probably don’t look great. Still, they don’t reflect how well he has pitched and given that he is a Rule V pick, he probably still has a leg up on a bullpen slot. How good can he be? Like most of these other guys, he will be a slave to batted ball luck. The results show he missed more bats last season. Maybe he found something and if so then he could be a good one.
Steven Okert
The Astros rely more heavily on these BABIP warriors than most other teams and therefore their season to season results are more volatile. That can partially explain why they seem to get off to slow starts. It takes Joe Espada (or Dusty Baker before him) several weeks to figure out who the hot hand will be. Last season it was Okert, King, and Bennett Sousa. This year it will likely be some other guys. Okert looks okay according to the numbers, but he’s not special and likely will revert back to average.
Bennett Sousa
Depending on health, Sousa mght have been more of a find than King and Okert. He gets much higher chase rates and has a lot more swing and miss from opposing batters. That is generally more sustainable than what King and Okert are doing. So, getting him back could be a key to making the bullpen a little longer. The danger here is that the track record is obviously shorter which leaves you to wonder if hitters will figure him out eventually.
Kai-Wei Teng
In the movie “Major League” manager Lou Brown utters, “I know he hasn’t done much against this guy, but I got a hunch he’s due.” Sometimes, analysis can be just that simple. Teng has been a victim of bad batted ball luck for three years now. Maybe they have a hunch he is due. The BABIP is higher than it should be and the left on base is lower than it should be. Put those back at league norms with the lower contact rates and softer contact and you have yourself something. I wouldn’t put together a bullpen this way, but taking an occasional flier on someone like this never hurts.
Naturally, some of the starters we saw last time will find their way in the pen. I did leave out one or two names that we might see just based on space. However, these nine guys should be the bulk of their bullpen for the coming season. What do you think? Who are you high on?
