I love bye weeks and I’m not afraid to say it. Saturdays are just a little bit easier on the mental health when Iowa State is not involved. Going to games is great, don’t get me wrong. This year’s Iowa State team has been a joy to watch both in person and on TV. But there is just something about waking up on a Saturday with no obligations other than to sit on the couch and watch college football for 14 straight hours uninterrupted. Those couple of times each year are something to savor and enjoy.
Gambling only helps that case. Especially right now, because I am feeling very good about how I am reading these Big 12 teams. The column is fresh off a 6-2 week and now we are starting to ease into conference play. This is a great time on the calendar, and a great slate of Big 12 football ahead of us. I hope you all have a great Saturday off, whether it be spent watching games or doing other early fall activities. Let’s get into it!
THE GAMES
Tulsa (1-2) at Oklahoma State (1-1)
Kickoff: Friday 6:30pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Oklahoma State -10.5 | O/U: 54.5
Any time you can pick a team that lost 69-3 in their last game, you just have to do it. Tulsa is BAD, so even though OSU is also bad, there’s a lot of motivation here. This is the last time they’ll be favored for a long time, and potentially the last time they’ll win a game this year.
Pick: Oklahoma State -10.5
#17 Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0) at #16 Utah (3-0, 0-0)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FOX | The Line: Utah -3 | O/U: 56.5
I can’t wait to watch this game. There are so many unknowns on both sides. Utah has the best o-line in the conference, but Tech probably has the best d-line. Tech has beat up on three terrible opponents. Utah’s win over UCLA has aged terribly. When it comes down to it, and betting this game, I’m going to lean on the biggest strength on the field, Utah’s run game. Devon Dampier is going to show out in this game, and the Utes will protect the home field in a place that is very difficult for opponents.
Pick: Utah -3
SMU (2-1) at TCU (2-0)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: TCU -7 | O/U: 62.5
Something needs to be done about the fact that this is the last scheduled Iron Skillet game for awhile. TCU being in the Big 12 and following this conference has shown me just how much these teams and fans hate each other. 7 is just too many points.
Pick: SMU +7
North Carolina (2-1) at UCF (2-0)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: UCF -7 | O/U: 46.5
What am I missing here? UCF is not good, at all. They should not be favored by a touchdown against any other P4 school. Coach Bill is not going to get a signature win here, because UCF doesn’t qualify for that, but I like the Heels outright. Think about the coaching matchup: Belichick vs Scott Frost. Come on now.
Pick: North Carolina +7
West Virginia (2-1, 0-0) at Kansas (2-1, 0-0)
Kickoff: 5:00pm | TV: FS1 | The Line: Kansas -12.5 | O/U: 54.5
Ultimate letdown spot for West Virginia here. Kudos to them for winning last week in the fashion that they did. That’s an awesome one for Rich Rod. Kansas should have no trouble moving the ball here. I just don’t see West Virginia scoring enough to keep up.
Pick: Kansas -12.5
Arizona State (2-1, 0-0) at Baylor (2-1, 0-0)
Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Baylor -2.5 | O/U: 60.5
Oh this game is going to be a blast. I’m just thinking about where these teams are at this point and how the public views them. ASU started the year ranked in the top 15, and having an early loss is bad, but they are still pretty well thought of. Baylor laid a massive egg at home in their opener. I think the public will like the Sun Devils, but I’m fading that and taking Baylor at home by a field goal.
Pick: Baylor -2.5
BYU (2-0) at East Carolina (2-1)
Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: BYU -6.5 | O/U: 49.5
I watched way too much of BYU’s last game against Stanford. It was on really late at night and I had a bet to sweat out. I was not impressed by the freshman QB. Now he’s going on the road against a motivated G5 school that no doubt is excited about having a Big 12 school visit them. I’m thinking the hostile environment gets to Bear and ECU keeps it close.
Pick: East Carolina +6.5
Wyoming (2-1) at Colorado (1-2)
Kickoff: 9:15pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Colorado -13.5 | O/U: 44.5
Similar to Oklahoma State, I just don’t think Colorado will be favored again for awhile after this one, or win many games. Wyoming can’t do anything offensively, so I don’t think we’ll need much from whoever is playing QB at Colorado to bring this home.
Pick: Colorado -13.5
BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY
Iowa/Rutgers Under 46.5
Unfortunately, I have a ton of experience watching Iowa football by now. I know how to bet this school. When they play these schools that can’t play offense or consistently move the ball, they win ugly, low scoring games. I would be stunned if this one gets over 46.5 points, because we all know Iowa isn’t providing more than 20ish themselves.
Enjoy the games!
Season Record: 18-11 (+5.9 units)
