Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, October 3 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
- Spread: South Florida (-26.5)
- Over/under: 55.5
- All-time series: South Florida leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: South Florida 59, Charlotte 24 — November 16, 2024
- Current streak: South Florida, 2 (2023-24)
Setting the scene
One of the five Friday night matchups in Week 6 is courtesy of the American Conference.
The two teams experienced varying starts to their season as South Florida briefly entered the rankings for the first time since 2018 after a pair of notable non-conference victories, while Charlotte eyes its first FBS win under head coach Tim Albin.
Friday’s trip to Tampa presents a change marks the first time the 49ers leave the confines of Charlotte this season. South Florida hasn’t traveled far either, and this will
be the Bulls’ fifth-straight contest in their state of residence.
Charlotte 49ers outlook
Charlotte (1-3, 0-1 American) is limping out of the gate, figuratively and literally. The 49ers are struggling on the field, notching one victory over an FCS program by seven points and dropping games to Appalachian State, North Carolina, and Rice by double-digits.
To make matters worse, Charlotte is now down its starting quarterback and starting running back for the season. Conner Harrell suffered a leg injury in the second quarter vs. Rice and will not return in 2025. Harrell was one of the bright spots in the 49ers’ lone win, firing for 382 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for 47 yards and two additional scores. The offense is also down Henry Rutledge who only appeared in the Week 2 game vs. North Carolina.
Charlotte already has its replacements ready for these key offensive players. Duke transfer Grayson Loftis will provide relief duties for Harrell. The redshirt sophomore amassed 186 passing yards and a touchdown vs. Rice and is no stranger to a starting role. He served as QB1 for five games during the Blue Devils’ 2023 campaign, notably leading a Birmingham Bowl victory over Troy. Loftis contrasts to Harrell as more of a traditional pocket passer, so Charlotte will see a shift in offensive play-calling after the quarterback change.
Rutledge has already been largely unavailable this year, and Charlotte is spearheading the run game with Rod Gainey Jr. and C.J. Stokes. The 49ers’ rushing attack is in significant need of a boost and currently ranks 131st in the country in production. Sacks are somewhat contributing to this factor. After allowing two in their first three games, the 49ers surrendered six sacks once Loftis took over for Harrell in the middle of the second quarter in Week 4, and pass protection is one area they’ll need to shore up.
The main source of offensive production should come from the passing game. The 49ers field impressive wide receiver talent in E. Jai Mason and Javen Nicholas, who combine for 578 yards on the season. Mason exploded 228 yards and two touchdowns in Charlotte’s lone win, while Nicholas has been a more steady producer with two games over 90 yards in 2025.
Another factor limiting Charlotte’s scoring output is the turnover battle. The 49ers wield the second-worst turnover margin in the country at -7, coughing up the ball eight times and only scooping up one fumble recovery in return — an impressive touchdown-saving strip at the 1-yard line by strong safety Ja’Qurious Conley in Week 1. Thus, the defense eyes increased turnover opportunities in this showdown in Tampa.
Charlotte’s defense is headlined by linebackers Shay Taylor and Reid Williford. Taylor, a transfer from reigning MAC champion Ohio, leads the team with 26 tackles in addition to two tackles for loss. Williford is serving as the chief backfield invader on the team with a 49er-best two sacks — already matching his total from a strong 2024 campaign.
South Florida Bulls outlook
South Florida (3-1, 0-0 American) was college football’s flavor of the week for a timeframe spanning from late August to early September. The Bulls handled Boise State and Florida as the underdog, earning back-to-back ranked victories for the first time in school history, earning a ranking itself. However, South Florida’s gauntlet wasn’t quite finished as Miami (FL) awaited as the third opponent, and the Hurricanes abruptly concluded the Bulls’ time in the limelight in 49-12 fashion.
But one lopsided defeat doesn’t destroy a season. South Florida is just getting started with a quest for its first American title, and the Bulls already know they’re a contender. The offense has never been an issue in the Alex Golesh era, but what’s different is USF fields its highest caliber defense in years.
South Florida limited Boise State to 7 and Florida to 16 points during a 2-0, stifling the run game and winning the turnover battle 4-0 over that stretch. Todd Orlando’s defense features one of the top linebacker tandems in the country in Mac Harris and Jhalyn Shuler. Harris has a loaded résumé of 36 tackles, four sacks, two forced fumbles, and a 93-yard pick-six on the year, while Shuler matches his partner-in-crime with 36 tackles in addition to two pass breakups and a fumble recovery.
The defensive talent extends to the secondary where one of the top corners in the American resides in De’Shawn Rucker. However, USF as a whole looks to make significant strides in the passing defense. The Bulls currently rank 123rd nationally in passing yards allowed per game, and this was the primary struggle in the 37-point loss to Miami (FL).
Offensively, the Bulls operate under one of the faster tempos in the FBS, oftentimes sprinting to the line of scrimmage after completing an explosive play. Explosive plays have been a specialty thus far, and that’s evident in the wide receiver room. Leading receiver Chas Nimrod averages 26.2 yards per reception, ranking second in the country among receivers with 14+ catches. His running mate Keshaun Singleton is also a supreme downfield playmaker with 18.1 yards per catch on 13 receptions. They’ll serve as the primary targets for quarterback Byrum Brown — the only 3,000-yard passer in program history.
Brown’s passing numbers have been sharp to start the season, but the quarterback looks to make a greater impact in the run game moving forward. Mobility previously was one of his top assets, but Miami’s top-end defensive line bottled him up to two rushing yards two games ago. Brown owns five career 100-yard rushing games and remains capable of extending broken plays into electrifying first down runs.
Supporting the third-year starting quarterback in the run game is a trio of backs essentially splitting the No. 1 role. Alvon Isaac, Sam Franklin, and Cartevious Norton all lie within the 97-121 yard range on the year, and Friday will be especially notable for Norton — a Charlotte transfer pitted against his former school.
Prediction
All signs point to a comfortable South Florida victory Friday night at Raymond James Stadium. After a letdown vs. Miami (FL), the Bulls unleashed all their frustration on FCS program South Carolina State with a 63-point barrage. USF went through the gauntlet of ranked opponents to start the season, but Charlotte presents a nice change of pace for the Bulls — which can finally operate with some margin for error against an FBS opponent.
South Florida’s linebacking group sniffed out Boise State’s vaunted run game and it should have no problem doing the same against Charlotte. Offensively, the Bulls are equipped for a well-balanced effort against the 49ers which are 119th in total defense.
The 49ers are struggling and marred by injury, so this is shaping up to be a long year in Charlotte. South Florida rolls to improve to 1-0 in the American.
Prediction: South Florida 48, Charlotte 10
