The Los Angeles Rams are 5-4 and still in the NFC playoff picture, but the version of Matthew Stafford they have gotten through nine weeks is not the one that carried them last season.
Stafford currently has 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 90.6 passer rating. That is functional. It’s nowhere near “MVP” level. Last year Stafford was manufacturing big-time throws and taking care of the football. He has always been prone to mistakes. But this year has reached a higher frequency and there
is less of the good to offset.
The gap is evident in the efficiency metrics that separate good from elite. Stafford’s big-time throw rate has cratered from 7.7% to roughly 3% this year. His Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive grade sits in the upper 60’s, good for no better than 20th among qualified quarterbacks. That is not the profile of a player who is elevating the offense around him. It’s the mark of someone who is mostly managing a system, if not part of the problem.
The distinction matters because the supporting cast has not been built to absorb a decline in quarterback play. The Rams spent all offseason retooling their defense. The tradeoff brought minimal reinforcements on offense. Puka Nacua, who will now miss at least the next four games, has been asked to handle an outsized share of targets and production. Even when Nacua is available, the rest of the skill players have failed to consistently generate explosive plays. The run game has taken a step forward in stretches. The offense overall has no chance without it.
The defense is better. The offense is far from it. On a net basis, the Rams are a worse team.
The Rams need Stafford to be the engine in life without Nacua.
The last two games against poor competition demonstrate this offense’s current struggles. In two wins, Stafford combined for 385 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Rams won both games. It did so without Stafford producing at the level that turns close battles into comfortable victories. That’s good enough against the lowly Chargers and Commanders. It won’t get the job done in a few weeks against the Green Bay Packers.
It’s worth noting that Stafford is also managing an elbow issue that has required regular icing and maintenance. The Rams have downplayed the issue, but it landed the quarterback on the injury report last week. Stafford’s decline, although evident, does not require a dramatic injury narrative in order to explain. What is more concerning is the combination of workload, age, and a lesser supporting cast. The margin for error is gone because a lot of the high-end outcomes have disappeared.
Last year’s version of Stafford was capable of overcoming some of these constraints. The 2026 quarterback has not shown the same capacity at any point.
The Rams do not need Stafford to replicate his MVP stat line. They do need him to reclaim enough of his efficiency and decision-making that defined last season in order to raise the offense’s floor.
Doing so requires fewer mistakes, more big-time throws, and production in the deep area of the field.
We’ve seen Stafford carry the Rams against all odds before. He pushed young and unproven rosters to the playoffs in 2023 and 2024. The 2026 defense is better than those iterations. Even if the offensive talent is lesser, the team can likely get by scoring fewer points.
If Matthew Stafford is truly the MVP, he will rise beyond the injury adversity to help the Rams reach the playoffs and keep their Super Bowl hopes alive. His team needs him more than ever.
