With their dominant win over Arizona State on Wednesday, Iowa State looked like their former selves Addy Brown is back in the lineup. While I would argue that they are back to playing like a Big 12 contender and a team that could’ve hosted games in the NCAA tournament had the injuries not happened, it may take a while for general audiences to agree. That could change with a huge opportunity on Sunday against TCU.
Addy Brown returns in a dominant win
In her 20 minutes of action, Addy Brown boasted a 6/7/6
in her return to play after missing eleven games. While that is officially her lowest minutes total for the season, it makes sense to ease her back into the lineup after not playing for a month and a half along with Iowa State holding a comfortable lead for a large portion of the game. Audi Crooks and Jada Williams continue to lead the way for the top ranked offense in Big 12 play, scoring 28 and 26 respectively. The Cyclones also shot a blazing 50% from deep, paced by Jada Williams at 4-7.
This was a statement win over an Arizona State squad that is currently in a bubble race for the big dance, but a 26 point victory likely surpassed what anyone was expecting. A 27-13 third quarter in the Cyclones favor is what ultimately propelled them to a large margin of victory. The 26 point margin of victory is the largest in conference play so far for Iowa State, even though Arizona is still in the top half of the conference. Now is a great time to be finding their stride.
TCU is the biggest test of the season
Currently atop the Big 12 standings, a road game against TCU will likely be seen as the toughest test for Iowa State’s resume, but it also represents the biggest opportunity to put themselves back into the national attention. That will of course be a tall task against the best defense in conference play.
TCU currently ranks first in conference play in points allowed at just 59.3 points per game. They allow just 36% from the field and 28% from three, first and second in the conference. Don’t worry, they are also high ranking on the offensive side, currently fifth in overall scoring and is second in shooting percentage. This is what you would expect from the 12th ranked team in the nation, but that doesn’t mean that they are unbeatable.
They do have three conference losses, and they aren’t necessarily at the top of the conference. The tough part is that all of those were on the road, so expecting their perfect home record to fall would certainly be a strong prediction to make.
Olivia Miles leads the way for the Horned Frogs, averaging 20.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. The points and assists lead the team with the rebounds being just second, so her play has been a large factor for the success of the team. Scoring 40 points against Baylor, she absolutely has the ability to put herself firmly in the driver’s seat and win the game herself.
Audi Crooks will have one of her toughest foes as she will share a lot of minutes with Mara Suarez, a fifth year senior from Spain who is averaging 16.3 points and 6.4 rebounds. With 30 minutes per game, it will be a battle in the paint and one of the best opportunities for both players to play against high level post players before the NCAA tournament.
So with ESPN currently favoring TCU with a 78% chance, that does leave a plausible window for Iowa State to steal a win and plant themselves back into the Big 12 tournament conversation. What is the path to victory?
- Score 74 points or more. This isn’t specific to TCU, but Iowa State has found a weird trend where, with one exception, 74 points represents the bar for Iowa State to win. If they score above that, they win, if they score below, they lose. Is this a good metric? No, but I think it’s fun to think about.
- Audi wins the battle against Mara Suarez. Those two will receive plenty of attention as they likely will play a lot of one on one down on the post, so if Audi can win more of those battles, that will set up the opportunity for the Cyclone guards to finish off the game as one of the best three point shooting teams in the country.
- Slow down rush chances. Even in the blowout win against Arizona State, the one nitpick I will give them is that there were still a couple of instances where the Sun Devils moved quickly down the court and would find a mismatch or a missed assignment for an easy bucket. That has been the Achilles heel for this squad defensively, and will likely be at the forefront of every opposing defensive plan for the rest of the season. Even just a second or two of tight guarding off the rebound can do wonders to get the defense reset and create better matchups.
Prediction: 76 – 68 TCU
