Heading into the National League Championship Series, the Dodgers have their work cut out for them against the 97-win Brewers, who had the best record in baseball this season, and not just because Milwaukee won all six games between the two teams over a two-week span in July.
Those games did, however, provide a glimpse of things for the Dodgers to watch out for over the next week-plus.
Starting pitching
The Dodgers scored only four runs in their first four games against the Brewers this season, July 7-9 in Milwaukee
and the July 18 opener of a three-game set in Los Angeles. Only two of those runs were scored off Brewers starting pitchers — in order, Freddy Peralta, Jacob Misiorowski, Jose Quintana, and Quinn Priester combined for 33 strikeouts in 24 innings, with all four lasting exactly six innings.
On the flip side, the Dodgers this postseason are 5-0 when their own starting pitcher lasts at least six innings, a total that has already surpassed the team’s total (four such starts) over the last four postseasons (35 games) combined.
The Dodgers lost their last two games to the Brewers as well, on July 19-20, but they at least scored 12 total runs in those games. That included four runs each off Peralta and Quintana the second time they faced them.
Milwaukee’s pitching has been more of a group effort of late. Brandon Woodruff has a lat injury and is not active. Quintana missed the last two weeks of the regular season with a calf injury and pitched three innings in bulk relief in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Cubs, last Wednesday. Priester started that NLDS Game 3 but couldn’t get out of the first inning, and allowed four runs.
One or both of Quintana and Priester are available in some capacity in Game 1 of the NLCS, but will follow an opener, Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Sunday. Peralta will start Game 2.
Misiorowski was similarly moved to relief though is reasonably stretched out, having pitched three innings in Game 2 of the NLDS and four innings in Game 5 on Saturday, combining to allow only one run on four hits and two walks in his seven innings. He’ll be available for one of the games in Los Angeles.
Milwaukee’s bullpen is much deeper than the Dodgers, led by Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill with plenty of others. The Dodgers offense needs to make some noise against Quintana, Peralta, Priester, and Misiorowski to ease the burden both for their own bullpen and facing the Brewers’ relievers.
Left, behind?
Shohei Ohtani struggled offensively in the NLDS against the Phillies, thanks in large part to facing excellent Phillies starting pitchers Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, and Ranger Suárez, all of whom are left-handed. Sixteen of Ohtani’s 20 NLDS plate appearances were against southpaws, but that percentage will greatly lessen in the NLCS.
Quintana is the only lefty starter (or starter-adjacent) on the Brewers roster, which also includes southpaw relievers Aaron Ashby, Jared Koenig, and Robert Gasser.
Facing more right-handed pitching will also provide more opportunities for Max Muncy, who batted only 10 times and started just once in four games in the NLDS. He made the most of his chances, with four hits, including a double, and a walk.
Muncy missed time in the second half of the season with a bone bruise in his knee and a strained oblique. He returned with three weeks to go in the regular season but missed time in the final week of the season after getting hit by a pitch on his leg.
“With everything that was happening towards the end of the season — a big part of baseball is just having rhythm, especially in the batter’s box,” Muncy said last week. “Mechanics can be whatever you want them to be, but if you don’t have the rhythm in the batter’s box, sometimes it’s tough to compete. So for me it’s still trying to find that rhythm.”
Extra, extra
The Brewers are a team with very few holes, and one that does so many things well. Of the 11 position players who got the most playing time in the NLDS, nine of them were above average offensively with a wRC+ of over 100.
Shortstop Joey Ortiz and center fielder Blake Perkins are the only regular hitters who were below average offensively, but both play premium defensive positions. The Brewers are good defensively just about everywhere. By Outs Above Average, their outfield is plus-17, ranked third in MLB, and the infield is 11th in baseball at plus-12.
As a team, Milwaukee led the National League in on-base percentage (.332) and stolen bases (164). They ranked ninth in MLB with a 107 wRC+, but were third in runs scored (4.98 per game), right behind the Dodgers (5.09 runs per game) at No. 2.
The Brewers make the most of their opportunities with excellence on the bases, and not just with the steals. They ranked first in MLB in baserunning runs above average at both FanGraphs (15.0) and Baseball Savant (15). What’s notable is that nearly all of their baserunning value at Baseball Savant is by extra bases taken at 14 runs above average, which equals the total combined runs by the second (Tigers) and third (Reds) teams.
