Game Information
When: Wednesday, January 7th
Where: Littlejohn Coliseum
What Time? 9 PM (past my bedtime on a weekday)
2025-26 Season
Record: 12-2
ACC Record: 1-0
Previous 3 Games
1/3: W – 97-83 vs North Carolina @ Home
12/28: W – 110 – 63 vs Cal State Fullerton @ Home
12/21: W – 99-82 vs Central Arkansas @ Home
SMU Personnel
Starters
Bench
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 31
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 123.1 (15)
Adjusted Tempo: 69.8 (114)
Average Possession Length: 15.4 (29)
Effective Field Goal%: 56.8 (32)
Offensive Rebound%: 36.3 (49)
Three Point%: 35.9 (83)
Two Point %: 58.3 (37)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 103.3 (77)
Adjusted Tempo: 69.8 (114)
Average Possession Length: 17.1 (160)
Effective Field Goal%: 48.9 (100)
Offensive Rebound%: 31.6 (198)
Three Point%: 31.1 (73)
Two Point %: 50.7 (8)
SMU Advantages
Adjusted Efficiency
SMU Offense: 123.1 (15)
Clemson Defense: 98.2 (26)
Notes
It’s interesting, I’m having to stretch for some SMU advantages because Clemson’s defense matches up well with their offense. SMU has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, but Clemson has one of the most efficient defenses. The gap between the fifteenth-ranked offense and the twenty-sixth-rated defense is negligible, but this is the story of the game. If Clemson’s defense can cut into SMU’s offensive efficiency, the Tigers should win. If SMU can maintain its offensive efficiency against Clemson’s smothering defense, they win.
Two Point Field Goal %
SMU Offense: 58.3 (37)
Clemson Defense: 48.7 (88)
Notes
Again, this isn’t a huge advantage for SMU, but it’s where the game will be won or lost for both teams. SMU isn’t a prolific 3-point shooting team. They score 54.2% of their points from inside the arc and 19.4% of their points from the foul line. Clemson’s interior defense is going to have to contend with massive center Samet Yigitoglu down low and a bunch of bouncy wings attacking the paint.
Clemson Advantages
Turnover %
Clemson Offense: 14.4 (29)
SMU Defense: 19.3 (77)
This is another spot where the difference between the two teams isn’t vast, but the outcome will be key to the game. SMU wants to play fast and in transition. Remember SMY head coach Andy Enfield from Florida Gulf Coast’s “Dunk City” run a few years ago. He’s added some half-court stuff to his coaching repertoire from his time at USC in the Big 10, but all things being equal, he’d rather create turnovers and play in transition. It’s going to be hard for them to beat Clemson playing a 1/2 court at a time.
Adjusted Efficiency
Clemson Offense: 117.4 (60)
SMU Defense: 103.3 (77)
Notes
Once again, these teams are essentially mirror images of each other. Clemson needs to maintain its offensive efficiency to keep SMU’s offense out of transition. It’s hard to run when you’re taking the ball out of the net or standing around the free-throw line. Clemson has to score to protect its defense. SMU needs stops to play in transition. Sometimes this is an easy game to analyze.
Brief Thoughts
An old adage in boxing is “styles make fights.”
This is a classic matchup between an aggressive offensive team (SMU) and a buttoned-up defensive team (Clemson). The Tigers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and SMU plays at one of the fastest. For my money, nothing else in this game particularly matters. It’s all about pace and style of play.
If SMU can open the game up and play in the open court, Clemson can’t score with them. If Clemson can slow the game down and play in the half-court, the Tigers win. Everything else is semantics.
Whoever inflicts their style on the game wins.
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Predictions
KenPom
Clemson: 77
SMU: 74
Drew
Clemson: 72
SMU: 67
In a battle of wills, no one is more stubborn than Brad Brownell. He’s going to take the air out of the ball and see if SMU can out-execute his team in the half-court. I don’t think they can. I anticipate this to be a low-scoring, ugly affair, and that’s exactly the game Clemson wants to play. The Tigers pull away late and pick a huge resume win.
