As October draws near for teams in playoff contention, they are starting to use this time to put their bullpen in a pecking order. They have had a season’s worth of data and observation to determine which of the players in the bullpen are worthy of logging those high stress innings that come with pitching in the postseason. Maybe there were some recent callups that they would like to see in bigger spots to check for resiliency, to check to see how the nerves will hold up when the lights get a little
brighter. Nothing can replicated the pressures of playoff baseball until the situation actually comes up, but in some games, there are ways to get players as close as possible, so that’s what teams try to do.
The Phillies are no strangers to this. Recently, they have begun trying things out with Alex McFarlane, putting him into spots that are at least close to mirroring those that he could be used in in October. At times, he has responded with aplomb:
Other times, he has not succeeded:
What has become more obvious is that the coaching staff has preferred that McFarlane come up in those spots instead of another young right hander that has good stuff.
The Phillies did not lose Friday night’s game against the Braves thanks to Orion Kerkering. When he came into the game that night, the team was already down a run, so his job was simply to hold the fort. The offense was stifled for most of the evening, even though they had a few chances to do damage against Braves starter Chris Sale. Yet when the team was in a higher leverage spot, it was McFarlane that called upon to get the more difficult part of the Braves’ order (Michael Harris, Ronald Acuna, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies), making Kerkering’s job of simply holding down the fort a bit easier. He wasn’t facing slouches that would slot into the order against him, but it’s not the same quintet that McFarlane faced.
And yet, once again, Kerkering came up short, allowing a two run home run to Mauricio Dubon that essentially salted the game away for Atlanta and gave them a series opening win.
This has become something of a regular pattern for Kerkering of late. He has struggled when put into games late, positing a 4.50 ERA in innings seven through nine. That’s 23rd among pitchers that have between 35 and 50 innings pitched in those final three frames, but they are skewed slightly by his only throwing four innings in the ninth inning. For his season, Kerkering has allowed:
- 4.70 ERA in 15 1/3 innings pitched in the seventh inning
- 4.72 ERA in 26 2/3 innings pitched in the eighth inning
He has not pitched well when called on late in games. The trust that he will be able to right the ship in time for more meaningful games has dwindled to the point where one should openly wonder the coaching staff would trust him.
They should not. Orion Kerkering should not be put in high leverage situations any longer.
The problem is that there are issues the Phillies are having in those spots. Prior to the season, Brad Keller was signed following a highly successful 2025 season in which he was one of the best relievers in the game in those same innings with the Cubs. Giving Keller those big spots in front of Duran gave the Phillies, at least on paper, an edge when it came to closing down games. Once Keller got off to a slow start then eventually succumbed to injury, the Phillies were forced into plan B. Luckily for them, Jonathan Bowlan has had a very good season in a trade with the Royals, becoming Don Mattingly’s preferred option in the eighth when the team has a lead.
However, Bowlan cannot pitch every game and has himself shown signs of weariness of late, giving up home runs in three of his last four outings. That’s why the team has been looking elsewhere for someone to start handling those high leverage spots. At first it was Kerkering, but he has not demonstrated with any kind of consistency that he is an answer in those situations. Does that put the Phillies in a sizeable disadvantage? Of course it does. Going to October thinking that only a few options currently sitting in the bullpen can handle any kind of leverage situation has to be frustrating. They will continue to try out McFarlane thanks to his superior stuff and the fact that many teams probably haven’t seen much of him yet thanks to his newness to the league.
One thing that they can’t do is put Kerkering in those spots. Handling the fifth, sixth innings, when there is still time to make things change in the game? Those are the places where he needs to live for the forseeable future.
So long as it’s not a high leverage spot, that’ll do just fine.
