Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Strawweight rivals Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba will rematch this weekend (Sat., Oct. 25, 2025) inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates for UFC 321.
For those that don’t remember, Dern and Jandiroba faced off five years ago at UFC 256. As is so often the case when high-level jiu-jitsu black belts collide, the duo engaged in a pretty fun kickboxing match! It was competitive the whole time, but a heavy Dern right hand stole the third
round and swayed the decision in her favor.
Since then, Dern’s career has ricocheted up-and-down with the velocity of a bouncy ball fired from a hunting rifle. She’s 5-4 in the half decade since but does ride a two-fight win streak into her first title shot. Jandiroba, conversely, has been more inactive but more consistent, winning her last five bouts. Both women have improved but in rather different ways, which should make for an intriguing second dance on Saturday night.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Dern vs. Jandiroba Betting Odds
- Mackenzie Dern victory: -148
- Mackenzie Dern via TKO/KO/DQ: +750
- Mackenzie Dern via submission: +250
- Mackenzie Dern via decision: +250
- Virna Jandiroba victory: +124
- Virna Jandiroba via TKO/KO/DQ: +4000
- Virna Jandiroba via submission: +450
- Virna Jandiroba via decision: +250
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Dern Wins
Dern is a flawed but exceptionally dangerous fighter. One of the most accomplished jiu-jitsu fighters to ever step into the Octagon, Dern’s wrestling is still inconsistent and — at times — outright impractical. However, she’s positively lethal from top or bottom position, and her right hand packs a surprising wallop. Her career has been a roller coaster, but Dern has gradually improved throughout the chaos.
A focus on tight boxing will make a massive difference here, and fortunately, Dern IS working with Jason Parillo ahead of her title fight. In the first fight, Dern was able to win the standup war primarily by being younger and more athletic. Imagine if she takes those same gifts — which obviously still exist — and applies a little more form to her swings!
At her best with Parillo, Dern has showed a stiff jab, clubbing right hand, and more responsible defense. If she can bring those same tools to this fight, she should be able to hurt Jandiroba again with strikes. At that point, whether she shoots or is defending Jandiroba’s takedowns, her odds of winning the ensuing scrambles skyrocket.
How Jandiroba Wins
Jandiroba deserves a ton of credit for turning her career around. At 37 years of age, she’s never looked better, putting in the time to improve her transitional wrestling and become a much more dominant ground fighter. The jiu-jitsu prowess was always there, but the Brazilian’s takedowns have grown much more difficult to stop.
To win this bout, Jandiroba must play a dangerous game either way. She has the wrestling to choose whether to deal with Dern’s powerful right hand or take the bout to the canvas. In the first fight, she largely opted to strike, and it didn’t quite pay off.
This time around, she has to play with fire and engage on the canvas. As we just saw with Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen, MMA is different than BJJ competition. A strong grappler can defeat an elite one if they gain top position, because ground striking changes the game. Plus, it’s exhausting to play bottom position. Jandiroba has the skills to brave Dern’s guard, and each second that goes by with her on top increases the odds of Dern fatiguing and growing less dangerous.
So far, Dern has never bothered to defend takedowns because of her jiu-jitsu excellence, but Jandiroba might be the perfect fighter to make her pay for that tactic.
Dern vs. Jandiroba Prediction
This feels like a bad style match up for Virna Jandiroba … provided Dern has her head on straight, which is no guarantee. Were we to match both athletes up against all of their Top 10-ranked peers, I expect Jandiroba would walk away with the better win percentage. In that actual fight, however, it feels like Jandiroba has no choice but to play into Dern’s hands.
Sadly, Jandiroba’s significant improvements aren’t likely to matter here. Her big jump in skill since 202o has been in offensive wrestling, but she never looked particularly willing to grapple with Dern in the first fight. In fact, she was the one defending takedowns and trying to strike. Dern, conversely, has refined her boxing to a more significant degree and was already the heavier hitter five years ago.
I’m expecting another scrappy fight, but Dern’s right hand will hurt Jandiroba again at some point. This time, she finds her way into top position and locks up the fight-ending armbar on a wounded foe.
