Catch up on previous 2026 opponent previews!
Thirteen weeks ago I began my previews of every regular season opponent on Missouri’s 2026 schedule, and as of last week, I’m done! My hope is that you learned something interesting about the dirty dozen the Tigers will be squaring off against this year and get a better idea of what Mizzou will be facing heading into Eli Drinkwitz’s seventh year at the helm.
With the team-specific previews done,
let’s take a step back and look at the collection of teams as a 12-unit sample size and rank them based on various factors. Say…Bill Connelly’s factors that go into preseason rankings, what do you think?
Missouri’s 2026 Opponents Ranked by 5-Year Recruiting Rankings
In the 13-team sample size of the 2026 opponents (plus Missouri), you can break down the 5-year recruiting rankings into four tiers: Tier 1 has Georgia as far and away the best high school recruiting team, followed closely by Texas and Texas A&M. Tier 2 holds Oklahoma and Florida with Tier 3 containing Ole Miss, Missouri, Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Arkansas, while the dreadful “they’re trying!/G5 teams” are Tier 4 of kansas and Troy. I put Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s recruiting rankings in there but…uh…yeah it’s FCS and they ain’t great so I’m not really putting them in a tier.
Of this list, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, Missouri, Kentucky, and Arkansas all saw their recruiting efforts dip from 2025 to 2026. Georgia’s hammer-lock on top tier recruiting teams stays firm but the gap is closing, as you can see in the composite rankings of recruiting classes by school. Why? Well, for one, you have to pay players on front street now and the lack of shady backroom deals means that players and agents can talk openly about what individual schools are offering. Plus, schools have to spend in the portal AND OH YEAH players can transfer away if you hard sold them a line of BS and didn’t deliver.
Oh, and on the flip side, A&M, Oklahoma, Mississippi State, kansas, and Troy saw either steady recruiting efforts or improvements in their high school recruiting.
And, while this doesn’t directly factor into Bill C’s SP+ factors, just in case you were curious…
Missouri’s Opponents Ranked by 5-Year Transfer Portal Rankings
Since we now have five year’s worth of data on this I thought it would be fun to add it in this year. These rankings feel very close to the general narrative of each team:
- Ole Miss is the portal king of the past five years. I know. Shocker.
- Georgia isn’t great at the portal because it doesn’t need to be.
- Troy isn’t great at the portal because it’s poor.
- kansas isn’t great at the portal because they’re kansas.
- Missouri – as always – is better than most but not in elite territory.
Missouri’s Opponents Ranked by Returning Production
Texas and Georgia are the top two teams that most pundits believe are the real SEC contenders in 2026, as well as Playoff/National Title contenders, and the returning production goes a long way in solidifying that opinion.
In 20205, Missouri returned 44% (101st) of their 2024 offensive production and 72% (10th) of their defensive production, with the defense finishing as a Top 10 defense and the offense ranking in the 40s, and of course that overall returning production number of 58% (56th) led to an 8-win campaign.
In 2026, Missouri has even worse returning production, clocking in at 59% of 2025’s offense (51st), 40% of last year’s defense (107th), and 49% overall (76th). While playing a 9-win SEC schedule.
Make of that what you will, but overall trends would indicate a downturn in win totals for our Tigers.
In addition to the Longhorns and Bulldogs, be wary of Florida with a competent coach (10th overall) and, of course, Texas A&M (14th) and Oklahoma (16th).
Missouri’s Opponents Ranked by 5-Year SP+ Ratings
College football teams are more likely to resemble their quality over a 5-year stretch than what it looked like the previous year so this is a good reference to heat check some hot commodities. And, for the first time in this measurement, we have the Barry Odom/COVID years fully scrubbed out and now it’s only measuring Drinkwitz’s real-season time at the helm. Notice how Mizzou is the 6th best team on its schedule in 5-year SP+! While that might not sound impressive, remember, the schedule has Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, and A&M on it, all teams with Playoff appearances and/or blue-blood status in the sport.
And in case you were wondering…
- Missouri’s 5-Year Record vs. Teams Above Them in 5-Year SP+ Average: 1-7
- Missouri’s 5-Year Record vs. Teams Below Them in 5-Year SP+ Average: 10-4
Missouri Opponents Ranked by Preseason SP+ Ratings
Here is Missouri’s 2025 schedule with the preseason SP+ rankings listed to the left of the team and their postseason rankings listed on the right:
- FCS – Central Arkansas – FCS
- 50th – kansas – 59th
- 74th – Louisiana – 105th
- 17th – South Carolina – 49th
- 135th – Massachusetts – 136th
- 2nd – Alabama – 20th
- 25th – Auburn – 29th
- 55th – Vanderbilt – 11th
- 15th – Texas A&M – 10th
- 71st – Mississippi State – 58th
- 16th – Oklahoma – 14th
- 38th – Arkansas – 54th
Seven of Missouri’s 2025 opponents were worse at the end of the season than they were projected at the beginning, and Missouri went 6-1 against that batch. The other four improved from their preseason rankings and Missouri went 1-3 against that group. Also, they beat FCS Central Arkansas. But, according to SP+, Missouri was slated to play three SP+ Top 20 teams and wound up playing (and losing) four games against SP+ Top 20 teams.
For 2026, Missouri is projected to play six SP+ Top 20 teams, double what they were projected to play last year. Barring some historical collapse by MULTIPLE blue blood programs, this will be one of the toughest schedules the Tigers will have faced in quite some time. Potentially ever.
2025 Projected Opponent Starting Quarterbacks in Scheduling Order
The quarterback position lends itself to starting guys who are either a.) wildly talented, or b.) mega experienced. Last year’s Tigers went up against seven quarterbacks who had at least four years of playing experience and this year features nine. Age and experience do not necessarily equate to “better” but having experience is certainly nice. The breakdown looks like this:
- 6th-year QBs: 0
- 5th-year QBs: 4
- 4th-year QBs: 5
- 3rd-year QBs: 2
- 2nd-year QBs: 0
Keep in mind these are the projected starters: who knows if a freshman, transfer, JUCO, or walk-on somehow wins the starting job for any of these schools in fall camp. But, for what it’s worth, there are three projected-starting quarterbacks that Missouri will face off against in 2026 that they also played against in 2025.
So, with all of the numbers out of the way, let’s revisit the 2026 schedule one more time:
A reminder: the 2026 Missouri football schedule is a doozy. But let’s walk through it.
It’s a “one bye week” season this year so there’s only one check point to rest and refit. It occurs October 24th, after a seven week slog including the easiest portion of the schedule as well as three Top 20 matchups to close out the opening salvo.
The back five games feature the two aforementioned SEC/Playoff/National Championship contenders, plus a rivalry game on the road, the team that always somehow beats Mizzou, and a dark horse Playoff contender.
In order, Missouri’s FBS opponent SP+ rankings go 57th, 90th, 52nd, 19th, 9th, 16th, 47th, 6th, 4th, 53rd, and 12th. That’s five matchups against teams ranked 40th or worse in SP+ and six against teams that are ranked 20th or higher in SP+ with no teams (currently) ranked in between those two markers.
Here’s where I remind you that Eli Drinkwitz is 26-4 against teams ranking 50th or higher in SP+ and 8-20 against the Top 25.
If we go off averages, Drink’s ‘26 Tigers will go 6-6. Which means he’ll have to beat a ranked team/a team that is better than his just to get to seven wins.
But, hey, these are preseason SP+ projections, and just because they’re usually super close 95% of the time doesn’t mean that this team can’t rise up and pull some wins over better competition, right?
But that’s for later discussion. For now, this is the starting point for the grand endeavor that will begin in September.
