Last week was a bloodbath against the spread. I picked three underdogs to cover relatively large spreads and they all lost by more than the margin.
Iowa @ Washington (-3.5)
I’m sure I’m not the only one who raised an eyebrow when I saw that the Dawgs were favored over a ranked Iowa team. There are a few factors that work in UW’s favor. Iowa has to travel across half the country on a short week to play a road game after facing Ohio St. Their QB is questionable (and reports on his availability do not sound
too optimistic). UW showed a pulse against USC and may be trending toward a more functional offense. Jedd Fisch’s comments about playing John Mills more at LT and moving Kodi Greene in for more reps at guard show that he is at least seeing the same problems the rest of us see.
On the other hand, picking UW means that you think Demond Williams will be able to lead an offense against a very big, physical Iowa defensive front. His jittery pocket presence has failed to hold up against vastly inferior opponents. UW’s semi-useful run game came against a bad USC defense. And as for Iowa’s QB injury, when was the last time anyone picked Iowa based on QB production? I remain hopeful that the offense can continue to improve, but it’s a big hurdle to improve quickly and profoundly enough to handle Iowa’s defense.
Iowa 21 – Washington 17
Indiana @ Nebraska (+7.5)
A year removed from having a Heisman-winning QB, Indiana has become very much a run-focused offense. They’re averaging over 250 yards per game on the ground, with both Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe chewing up turf. Nebraska is 5-0, but the schedule has been very soft. At some point, Indiana will slip up. It’s entirely possible that it could happen as a road favorite in a conference game. I think Nebraska can keep it close, but I’ll take the Hoosiers to remain unbeaten.
Indiana 28 – Nebraska 23
UCLA @ Oregon (-11.5)
At 4-0 and into the top-25 heading into a big conference game, you could argue that UCLA has taken the place UW wishes it had in the B1G. Bob Chesney has the Bruins running the ball wonderfully, and Oregon has not been lights out in run defense. Wayne Knight (Hello, Newman) has led the attack with 9.1 YPC. It sounds more likely that Dylan Raiola will start at QB with Dante Moore out with a concussion. UCLA has not won in Eugene since 2004, though Chesney looks very much like the kind of coach who can buck trends.
Oregon 30 – UCLA 24
Illinois @ Michigan St (+1.5)
Both teams probably expected to be better than 2-3 at this point, especially Illinois. Pat Fitzgerald was not an offensive mastermind at Northwestern and his team is 125th in scoring so far this year. Former Spartan QB Katin Houser has been uneven in his first year at Illinois. Neither team has been great offensively but Illinois has been much closer to competent, which will lead me to err on their side.
Illinois 27 – Michigan St 23
USC @ Penn St (-1.5)
With consecutive losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern, I wonder if Penn St fans are having second thoughts about firing James Franklin. Ironically, they now line up against a team whose fans desperately want their high-paid coach fired. The weak spots will be on the field at the same time- the USC defense against the Penn St offense. Jayden Maiava was locked in to start the year, but came back to earth against Oregon and UW the last two weeks. While there are real problems with USC, I have a hard time finding reasons to believe in Penn St at the moment.
USC 30 – Penn St 27
Minnesota @ Purdue (+2.5)
The Gophers have been a pleasant surprise. They built on their win against UW with another upset over Michigan. Purdue also comes in on a high note after breaking a years’ long B1G losing streak last week against Illinois. Minnesota will try to lean on Darius Taylor and the run game, where Purdue has struggled defensively. With the number at 2.5, I think the Gophers are a good bet to keep the winning streak alive.
Minnesota 33 – Purdue 23
