When the 2025-26 season kicked off, I made two predictions on the Oskee Talk Podcast.
- Michigan would be significantly better than Purdue. (I was mocked virulently.)
- Illinois would win 19 regular-season games and be a bubble team. (I should be mocked virulently for that.)
It’s easy to remember the losses. The gag at Breslin, the choke job at Pauley, and letting an Illini-lite, diet Illinois Wisconsin squad get two wins were all perplexing defeats.
It was as if Jeremy Fears had cloned himself and delivered multiple crotch kicks to the Illini.
Those losses looked symbolic of bigger problems. In the moments in which they occurred, they sounded like a death knell for a season that carried
so much promise.
Were they too dependent on Keaton Wagler?
Did they have zero infrastructure for late-game adjustments?
And my favorite dummy argument – Were they “tough” enough to win difficult games?
The cacophony of criticism was loud. The derision struck with haunting permanence. The amount of allegedly grown-ass men asking if these young, accomplished hoopers who trained every day from a young age were “tough” was disturbing. It was like they were the same people who complained about an NFL starting QB wearing nail polish.
Those claims come with coded attacks on European players being “weak” and “soft.” Let’s disabuse ourselves of that notion.
This squad flipped off the doubters. They did so without doing anything besides learning from their failures.
They play weak defense.
They have given up under 60 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. They have outscored their opponents 317-239.
Also, that team that is weak defensively enters the Final Four with the 31st-ranked adjusted defensive rating in the nation. When you combine that with the top adjusted offensive rating, and you have a team that has earned its spot. There is a reason Illinois has been the analytics darling of the season.
But they have had extreme luck of the draw.
Luck helps. Play conquers.
The Illini have benefited from Keaton Wagler’s brilliance. But they have not relied on his wizardry to save them. Four Illinois players have averaged in double figures during this run to the Final Four.
Wagler’s 44% from behind the arc has been an improvement from the end of the regul
ar season. Let’s call it like it is: the eye test told the story that Keaton Wagler was gassed at the end of the regular season. It led to the same grown men who questioned Illinois’ toughness to suggest Wagler needs to come back to Champaign next season so he can put on weight.
Because, you know, thin guards are DOA in the modern NBA. Seriously, people, tell me you don’t watch the NBA without telling me you don’t watch the NBA.
Andrej Stojakovic has been a re-re-revelation. His elite prospect pedigree and high-scoring output in the ACC brought with them the weight of expectation.
I wrote all about it here.
His presence as a go-to scorer belies his status as the sixth man. Andrej is a lethal force for an Illini squad that is built for balanced devastation. His ability to get downhill and finish against tough competition is a true game-changing force. His two-way impact can’t be understated. His ability to be the first guy off the bench and legitimately spell any of the five starters is an underrated skill.
Andrej’s bird hand is way strong. He has silenced critics who already had him in the portal. Now, he becomes a nearly equal retention priority to David Mirkovic.
“But Illinois can’t make it to the Final Four because Brad Underwood ABSOLUTELY CANNOT make adjustments.”
So moving Jake Davis into the starting lineup and bringing Stojakovic off the bench has clearly worked. That’s an unexpected adjustment that Underwood pivoted to even after the Cal transfer was healthy again.
Illinois’ defensive philosophy of limiting fouls and eliminating easy shots peaked against a favored Houston Cougars squad playing in its home city. It took over 56 minutes for Houston to shoot a free throw. The Cougars struggled from behind the arc and were unable to overcome the Illini’s offensive rebounding onslaught and rim protection.
The fire Cam Crocker noise was rendered nearly as pointless as last season’s fire Tyler Underwood rhetoric.
The Illini defense has found a new gear in this tournament. One can make a reasonable argument that Illinois’ defense has carried them even more than Stojakovic and Wagler’s scoring prowess.
This whole coaching staff flipped off the basketball establishment on the way to kicking Kelvin Sampson’s chair from under him at the big boy table.
While the Final Four run is unsurprising to experts who fell in love with Illinois’ offense early in the season, the way they have arrived in Indianapolis is a surprise to even the most ardent Big Ten Obververs.
I was wrong about this squad at the beginning of the season. I’m not the only one, but I was way, way off. And the team from my alma mater flipped me off as if I were a freshman trying to bring a poor fake ID into Kam’s.
I deserved that derision for being incorrect. I am standing in my wrongness and being wrong.
Two more wins, and this squad will have flipped off people far more important than yours truly.
