The Los Angeles Rams will have an opportunity to avenge one of their most disappointing losses of the season when they take on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10. While the Rams were 8.5-point favorites
back in Week 5, they lost in overtime despite having multiple chances to win that game. Much like back in Week 5, the Rams should win this game comfortably, but it’s never that simple against the 49ers. The Rams are just 4.5-point favorites on the road, but are much better than that on paper.
This is going to be a big game for the Rams. They are 0-1 in the division with five to play over the next nine weeks. A division win on Sunday against a 49ers team would set the Rams up well as they begin an important part of their schedule. Here are five keys to victory against the 49ers.
1. Stick with 13 personnel
Over the last two weeks, the Rams have introduced a new twist to the offense and that has been with 13 personnel. Without Fred Warner, the 49ers can now be attacked in the middle of their defense, specifically their linebackers. This is a team that was already thin at the linebacker position and Dee Winters is expected to be out as well. While Tatum Bethune has been very good against the run, he’s allowed nine receptions on 12 targets over the past three weeks. This is where the Rams can really exploit the 49ers defense, especially if they can get them into their base personnel. Over the past two weeks, the Rams have gotten teams into base personnel at a 47.5 percent rate.
Teams have only run 13 plays this season out of 13 personnel against the 49ers. However, when the 49ers are in their base defense, they go from allowing 0.01 EPA per pass in nickel and dime to 0.31 EPA per pass in base. Three weeks ago against the Atlanta Falcons, the 49ers allowed seven receptions for 62 yards to Kyle Pitts. If the Rams can manage to stay on track running the ball out of 13 personnel, it will set things up for their tight ends in the passing game.
2. Limit damage from Christian McCaffrey
When the Rams played the 49ers back in Week 5, they actually did a good job limiting Christian McCaffrey’s damage on the ground. The 49ers’ running back had 22 carries for just 57 yards. However, he added eight receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. To no surprise, McCaffrey averaged 9.8 yards after the catch per reception in that game which was nearly double any other player in the 49ers offense. His 78 yards after the catch in that game was a season-high.
While the Rams had success against McCaffrey in the run game during the first match-up, there is a big difference in this game. The 49ers will have George Kittle back and, since he returned in Week 7, he’s been the third-best blocking tight end in the NFL. Since Week 7, the 49ers have a 60 percent rushing success rate and rank inside the top-10 with 16 explosive runs. Whether it’s Mac Jones under center or a limited Brock Purdy, the Rams can’t help them with a successful run game. If the Rams can limit the damage done by McCaffrey, it will make things more difficult for the 49ers offense.
3. Impact 49ers passing game
One of the biggest mistakes from the Rams in the first game was taking the 49ers and their passing game lightly. Chris Shula gave up the underneath throws, and Jones took them all night. Despite throwing for 342 yards, Jones had an average depth of target of just 6.8. Whether it’s Purdy or Jones, the Rams have to find a way to disrupt the 49ers’ passing game, especially on early downs to set up the pass rush.
This isn’t to say that the Rams need to sell out and blitz as the 49ers will take advantage of that. However, back in Week 5, the Rams only pressured Jones on 24 percent of his dropbacks. They simply weren’t having an impact rushing with four and the defense wasn’t holding up on the back end. The Rams nearly had twice as many missed tackles on defense against the 49ers with 12 than in any other game this season. Jaylen McCollough has missed four tackles all season and all four came in Week 5.
4. Win in the red zone
Over the past two weeks, the Rams have been 9-for-10 in the red zone and at some point there is going to be some regression. The Rams have the number two red zone defense while the 49ers are eighth. On offense, the Rams rank 13th while the 49ers are 20th. This is an area of the field in which the Rams have to win. Back in Week 5, the 49ers started 2-for-2 in the red zone, putting the Rams in a 14-0 hole. It was the only two times that the 49ers scored in the red zone in that game. Meanwhile, the Rams were 3-for-5 in the red zone. While that’s not bad, touchdowns are what’s going to win this game.
Outside of touchdowns being more valuable, the Rams have also had a kicking issue this season when it comes to the field goal unit. In a game that will very likely be close, the Rams can’t allow this game to come down to that unit. Davante Adams needs to win against Deommodore Lenoir and Kyren Williams needs to take care of the ball near the end zone.
5. Attack the edges in the run game
It’s no secret that the 49ers have been managing injuries all season. That’s especially the case at edge rusher where the 49ers are without Nick Bosa and just had to put rookie Mykel Williams on injured reserve. While the Rams have a 50-50 split in zone-gap runs this season, they’ve had recent success in zone. Blake Corum is averaging the sixth-most yards per carry in zone while Kyren Williams has the fourth-highest success rate on the season.
However, on outside zone runs, the 49ers have allowed a 48.1 percent success rate and are 27th in EPA per run on outside zone. Meanwhile, the Rams have averaged 4.9 yards per carry on outside zone runs and a 62 percent success rate. They have a 20.7 percent explosive run rate on outside zone runs. The Rams should be able to run at the 49ers’ edges in the run game on stretch plays and find success on the ground. That will set up play action and make the Rams offense very difficult to defend.
