Illinois will receive some much-needed rest this week before playing in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Friday. The conference tournament will be held inside the United Center this season for the first time since 2023. The Illini lost to Penn State in the second round of that tournament and will look for a better performance this time around.
The winner of USC and Washington on Wednesday will play five-seeded Wisconsin on Thursday. The winner of that game will face Illinois on Friday
for a trip to the semifinals.
Can Illinois win another Big Ten Tournament championship?
It will not be the easiest path for Illinois to win the conference tournament title for the third time since 2021. The Illini will likely play Wisconsin on Friday and then could get a rematch with No. 1 seed and tournament favorite Michigan in the semifinals.
Despite the tough draw, Illinois currently has the second-best odds (per FanDuel) to win the Big Ten Tournament as the No. 4 seed. The Illini are the second-best team in the league by a wide margin on KenPom and other analytical sites, so those odds check out.
The No. 4 seed has not won its first game in the Big Ten Tournament since 2019, when Wisconsin beat Nebraska inside the United Center. The five seed has moved on to the semifinals in 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025, while 13-seeded Ohio State made the semifinals in 2023. (No tourney in 2020.) Illinois will need to bring its A+ game on Friday afternoon to beat a Wisconsin team that has reached the championship game in each of the past two tournaments.
No team has ever won the national championship after losing the first game of their conference tournament.
Let’s dive deeper into the Illini’s chances to win the tournament. There are reasons to believe Illinois can win this title, but there are also reasons why they likely will not.
Why Illinois CAN Win It
1. Offensive rebounding dominance
The Illini are still one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country and could lean on that in the postseason. According to KenPom, they rank No. 3 in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 6 nationally in offensive rebounds per game at 12.1 (Team Rankings). Illinois is also the biggest team in the country in terms of average height, which could help fuel a championship run in Chicago and a deep run in March Madness.
2. Elite freshman talent
Illinois has two of the best freshmen in all of college basketball. The Big Ten recently announced that Keaton Wagler won Freshman of the Year honors, and David Mirkovic joined Wagler on the league’s All-Freshman team. Wagler is projected to be a top-10 pick in the NBA Draft, giving the Illini an NBA-level talent they have not had under Brad Underwood. He has already led Illinois to multiple wins over ranked opponents and could potentially lead this team on a Kemba Walker-like run.
3. Strong overall resume
Illinois still has one of the best resumes in college basketball despite its four losses in February. The Illini have zero losses outside Quadrant 1, and all of their losses have come against projected NCAA Tournament teams. Their worst loss came to UCLA, which is projected to be an eight or nine seed in the NCAA Tournament.
4. An elite offense
The Illini’s offense could get hot at the right time. Illinois still has the No. 1 ranked offense on KenPom and has shown it can beat anyone when shots are falling. A high-level offense can allow teams to accomplish special things in March.
Why Illinois will NOT Win It
1. A difficult draw
The draw for Illinois as the No. 4 seed is not ideal. As mentioned earlier, the No. 4 seed has not won a game in this tournament since 2019. There is something to be said for teams that get a chance to play in the arena earlier in the tournament and settle their nerves before Friday’s games. Illinois will likely face a tough Wisconsin team on Friday and could meet projected No. 1 overall seed Michigan in the semifinals. Both teams are playing excellent basketball and will be difficult to beat.
2. Injuries and illness
Illinois has been extremely unlucky over the past few seasons when it comes to players missing time due to sickness, suspensions, and injuries. Kylan Boswell and Andrej Stojakovic both missed multiple games in February, including Illinois’ loss to Wisconsin.
Brad Underwood said in his postgame press conference that Stojakovic had the flu, and Keaton Wagler is currently dealing with shoulder and back injuries. Questions remain: Is Kylan Boswell fully healthy? Is Wagler too worn down? This team needs to be close to full strength if it wants to win the conference title.
3. Recent momentum
The Illini are not playing their best basketball heading into the postseason. Illinois looked like one of the best teams in the country during its 12-game winning streak but has cooled off recently. The Illini lost four games in February and did not look sharp against Maryland.
According to Haslametrics, Illinois is currently -2.48 in the site’s momentum metric, while Wisconsin sits at 4.32 and Michigan State is at 0.61.
4. Winning close games
Can Illinois win close games? The Illini will likely face several tight contests if they are going to make a run at another Big 10 Tournament title. Illinois is 0–3 in overtime games this season and just 4–5 in games decided by six points or fewer.
That does not mean Illinois is incapable of closing out games, but the Illini will need to prove they can get over the hump in high-pressure moments.
