The Good Phight will be previewing the 2026 season by going over each position on the field. We’ll talk about the players that will occupy them, the players behind them, their strengths and weaknesses and give a few takes about how we think the season will shake out.
Aaron Nola: Can he rebound?
Most of the discussion surrounding the Phillies rotation this spring has been about what to expect from Andrew Painter and the health status of Zack Wheeler. Understandably so, as they might be the two biggest
questions surrounding the team in general. However, there’s one player that can help ease some of the uneasiness in both of those questions.
It wasn’t that long ago that Aaron Nola was one of the most durable, reliable starters in baseball. You could almost lock in close to 200 quality innings in the rotation, even if they were mind-numbingly frustrating at times. But the last two years especially have cast doubt on what Nola is and what he can still be, as he had a below average 2024 and a nightmarish 2025.
Well hope springs eternal, as Nola has looked rejuvenated this spring, crediting his participation in the World Baseball Classic with Team Italy as a catalyst for getting into shape sooner. The results have shown on the field, especially with his fastball velocity. Nola has averaged 91.7 MPH on his fastball in his spring training appearances and averaged just under 93 MPH in his second and final start for Italy at the WBC on Monday. For comparison, Nola averaged just under 92 MPH on his fastball last season and didn’t average over 91 until returning from injury in August. His fastball this spring is already in a better spot than it was in April of last season when he was sitting around 91.3.
For his career, Nola’s velocity has typically started below average and then gradually increases as the season wears on, usually peaking in the summer months. Take 2024 for example, when he started the season averaging 91.1 MPH but was just under 93 by the end of the regular season, peaking at 93.3 in July. This spring however, he’s already close to his career average of 92.5 MPH and Opening Day is still a week away.
So, what does all this mean? As you’re well aware, not much can be gleamed from spring training performances. Players are looking to get into shape and may be working on specific things, all while not facing top tier competition regularly. But a velocity bump like Nola’s is something that should perk you up a little, as it signals that his stuff is already in a better place than it was last season.
Now to address a more difficult question. If Nola is indeed in for a “rebound” season, what exactly would that look like? Will he be the 2024 version of himself who logged 199.1 innings with a 3.57 ERA and 117 ERA+? Or will he be the 2023 version where he still threw over 190 innings except this time had a 4.46 ERA and 96 ERA+? The Phillies desperately need at least the 2024 version, as they are facing more uncertainty in their rotation than they’ve had in years as we discussed in our rotation preview.
There’s really no way to answer this question until we see Nola in real game action. We can look at all the spring data we want and be encouraged by his performance in the WBC, but none of it ultimately matters until the real season starts. Maybe the old “even year/odd year Nola” phenomenon will be at work again in 2026, suggesting that he is in for one of his better seasons. But again, what exactly constitutes a “better” Nola season at this point in his career? Is it a mid-rotation innings eater? Is it a little bit more? Or was 2025 a harbinger of what’s to come as Nola ages?
It’s time to find out.
