Hawaii lost in the midst of rain and a dust storm in Tempe, moving the team to 1-5 on the season. Losing is never fun and Hawaii is fresh out of moral victories, but there were some small positive signs as Hawaii heads into homecoming week.
Here are a few things to watch for as Hawaii takes on the New Mexico Lobos tomorrow, Saturday October 17th at 4:30 p.m. HT on FS1. Hawaii is a 14.5-point underdog.
3 Key Storylines
A team of destiny comes to Manoa
As I’ve stated more than a few times this fall, Hawaii’s fall from grace was set up by an ESPN SP+
article labeling the 2026 Warriors as the Group of Six frontrunner for the College Football Playoff berth. Expectations set sky-high. Fast forward 10 months, and that same SP+ metric now favors the New Mexico Lobos to make the College Football Playoff. The Lobos! Who would’ve ever guessed? With an easy slate the rest of the way and even College GameDay hype surrounding the program, the Lobos feel like a team of destiny. 2026 belongs to them. One has to wonder if the Rainbow Warriors are feeling a little bitter this week, watching someone else wear Cinderella’s shoes.
Are the receivers finding their footing?
Why has Hawaii regressed this fall? Well, there is plenty of blame for just about every facet of the offense, but a major factor? The enormous step back in production from the wide receivers. That said, against Arizona State, were there signs that Hawaii sees the light at the end of the tunnel? Transfer wide receivers Devin Alves and Audric Harris both registered long catches against the Sun Devils, combining for 101 receiving yards and a touchdown. Hawaii desperately needs receivers that can stretch the field, that’s not the skillset of slot receivers like Kainoa Carvalho, Titan Lacaden, Tama Uiliata. If Hawaii is to turn this awful show around, Alves and Harris need to continue progressing.
New Mexico’s defense is elite
It was another hit and miss game for Micah Alejado. Some moments he looked awesome, others he’s flushing out of the pocket too soon. It’s hard to blame him, protection hasn’t been reliable. Bad news this week: New Mexico’s secondary is elite, ranking 10th-nationally in passing yards allowed. The Lobos are also tied for 8th-nationally in Team Sacks and 5th-nationally in Tackles for Loss. There’s no sugarcoating things, on paper Hawaii’s offense might be completely shut down tomorrow. I wouldn’t even rule out a shutout. Timmy Chang will have to cook up the game plan of his life to have a chance in this one.
2 Roster matchups to watch closely
Hawaii offensive tackle Dean Briski vs. New Mexico defensive end Brett Kahru
Hawaii enters this contest ranking 125th-nationally in sacks allowed. No surprise, one of the worst in the country. New Mexico defensive end Brett Kahru ranks 29th-nationally in sacks and he’s just one of several vicious attackers in the Lobos front. On paper, it is a massive mismatch.
Hawaii linebackers Jamih Otis and Wynden Ho’ohuli vs. New Mexico quarterback Toa Fa’avae
I know, you’re probably thinking, “Well dang, Jeremy. Why even show up tomorrow? I’ll just go to the beach.” A worthwhile alternative, but if Hawaii is to shock the college football world, it’ll come from Dennis Thurman’s defense. New Mexico ranks 74th-nationally in total offense. Despite a soft schedule, the Lobos don’t exactly frighten anyone through their passing game or rushing attack. Hawaii’s only path to victory is flipping the script on the Lobos and causing havoc that leads to turnovers, points, better field position.
1 Bold prediction
I preface this by saying: I hope to be proven wrong. Hawaii doesn’t score a touchdown against the Lobos, finishes with two field goals for a total of 6 points.
