It’s been nearly four months since the Sixers began overhauling their roster. The shock of LeBron James and Jaylen Brown wearing Sixers uniforms has (mostly) worn off. We’ve already had our first taste of the media circus that often follows a LeBron team, and the Sixers have already suffered a quietly impactful injury.
As Brown would say, it’s now time to throw the ball up and see where the chips fall.
The Sixers tip off their season Tuesday on ring night for the reigning champion New York Knicks.
In honor of that, the Liberty Ballers staff gathered to make predictions about how this season will pan out.
And no, no one was asked about “alphas.”
Who will be the Sixers’ leading scorer?
Josh Grieb: I tackled this question in my own predictions, but that doesn’t mean I’m very confident in my answer. I think Joel Embiid will once again lead the Sixers in scoring.
While his two preseason games showed that he is going to be standing around in the corner a lot more than he ever has in his career, I still think his game is the most bendable for the other players in the starting five. His ability to draw double-teams is what will make that unit unbelievably deadly on the offensive end.
Jaylen Brown or Tyrese Maxey could very well end up being the Sixers’ leading scorer, especially if injuries hit hard and they have to carry the team through the regular season. But for now, I think the Big Fella will be the lead the way most of the nights he plays. His third-quarter heater to end the preseason only reinforced that to me.
Erin Grugan: If we’re talking overall total points this season, I think I’m looking at Maxey to be the guy there. The additions the Sixers made this offseason are monumental on their own, but they should also complement Maxey perfectly and open up the floor to allow him to operate in a way he hasn’t really been able to with some of the lineups he’s been working with in recent years. Between that and how he and LeBron seem to already be focusing on getting out in transition for quick buckets, I expect Maxey to thrive this season.
As far as who will average the most points, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Embiid’s name up there at the top. I don’t expect him to play half of every back-to-back, and I’m sure there will be some other time missed throughout the season, so I’m not sure where he’ll end up on total points. But he looked damn spry to close out the preseason, and if he’s able to keep moving like that, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to dominate offensively as he has before. Opposing defenses also may be even more desperate to foul Embiid/the Sixers at times just to try to slow down the talent-packed starting five they’re running with now. We all know how fast those points can add up.
Harrison Grimm: If we’re talking per-game scoring, it might be Embiid. That’s a crazy thing to say considering all the discourse surrounding him and his injuries. If we’re talking total scoring, I have to go with Maxey. He’s going to have the ball a lot, and he should theoretically get more opportunities than he has at any point since James Harden was in town.
I also want to give an honorable mention to Brown, who nearly averaged 30 points per game in Boston last season. I have little doubt about his ability to score. I just think the usage and touches won’t be there to support that level of production here. That being said, if Embiid or LeBron miss a game, don’t be surprised to see JB light it up when called upon.
Paul Hudrick: It’s Maxey. We saw what Maxey did as an off-ball scorer playing next to Harden. He gained valuable experience as a high-usage guard the past two seasons. He’s in a perfect place to blend those styles. One of my bigger concerns for the Sixers is their ability to hit threes. In his only full season playing next to Harden, Maxey had a prolific shooting season, knocking down a career-high 43.4% from deep on 6.2 attempts per game. I anticipate a jump in efficiency this season, but expect the volume to remain high.
Will Rucker: PPG, I’m going with Embiid. Total points, I’m going with Maxey. There’s a chance Embiid sees more single coverage than he’s seen since very early in his career, and he’s been one of the best and most efficient iso scorers in the NBA for over a decade. Maxey won’t be far behind, as he’s also in line for a hyper-efficient season playing more off ball next to LeBron and getting higher-quality shots than he has the past couple of seasons.
Bryan Toporek: I’m confident that it won’t be LeBron or VJ Edgecombe. From there, it’s anyone’s guess. I’d lean toward Maxey, if only because I expect him to help LeBron run the offense, which means he might lead the team in total touches. We’ve also seen how lethal he can be as an off-ball shooter, which should help his three-point percentage tick back up. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Embiid or even Brown wound up leading the way, either.
How (and when) will the Sixers fill their last open roster spot?
JG: I don’t think this gets dealt with until December, which is when the Sixers can sign someone to a prorated minimum contract without hitting their their first-apron hard cap. I’m growing increasingly concerned about it as more and more injuries pile up in the frontcourt, though.
It’s obvious that spot needs to be used on a big man. If I had to guess right now, my not-very-creative answer would be Kevin Love.
The Sixers might be forced to act sooner depending on how the centers behind Embiid hold up. Tacko Fall is an interesting idea on a two-way deal, but he hasn’t played in the NBA in four years, and wasn’t a rotation-caliber player back then. Not only has he been out of the league for that long, but he also missed all of preseason with a hip injury and still isn’t back at practice. I think the Sixers wait to deal with this because they pretty much have to, but it makes me increasingly nervous with every passing day.
EG: I think the Sixers are pretty much handcuffed at this point to wait until that December point (as Josh said) to sign a minimum without going over the first-apron hard cap. I also share Josh’s concerns with being in such a position with some preseason injuries piling up, especially a season-ending one like the Achilles tear suffered by Ariel Hukporti.
HG: I think the “how” is the easier part of this question, and one most of us already seem to agree on. I’d expect them to fill that final roster spot sometime in mid-December or shortly after, when the prorated salary makes it more feasible. There’s a non-zero chance they wait until after the trade deadline and let the dust settle, but it’s hard to imagine them holding off that long if key rotation players are sidelined. It’s also difficult to map out a realistic trade where they turn one of their larger contracts into multiple contributors.
As for who, or rather what type of player they target, that’s much harder to predict. Their backcourt is loaded with talent, and unless there’s a major injury, I’d be surprised if they added another guard. That leads me to believe the addition will be either a forward or a big. Even after signing Fall, the need for a versatile frontcourt player can’t be understated. They’d be wise to use that final roster spot on a big who can space the floor and/or provide legitimate defensive versatility on switches. Love could provide floor spacing, but I’d like them to be more creative with this type of move in the sense of adding potential value beyond this season.
PH: Not the sexiest answer, but I think Love will be a Sixer. Look, I think he’s perfectly fine for what they’d need. Love can’t defend anymore (never exactly a strength) and he’s not a rim protector, but he can rebound, take a charge, knock down open threes, make good decisions and set good screens. As a more stable option if guys like Adem Bona, Jabari Walker, etc. struggle, you could do worse than Love for 10-15 minutes in a playoff game. The LeBron factor also looms large here.
WR: Sometime after December 15th and before the trade deadline. I think it will be a backup center probably via trade. I’m looking at OKC and their glut of bigs as a potential trade partner, as well as Jalen Smith of the Chicago Bulls.
BT: While the Sixers can technically sign someone as early as December, I expect them to take a page out of Daryl Morey’s book and keep it open through the trade deadline to maintain their optionality. That plan is subject to change, particularly if frontcourt injuries keep piling up, but they could (should?) be a premier destination for ring-chasers given the talent in their starting five. Love is the obvious solution–and they wouldn’t have to wait until the trade deadline to sign him–but they should use these first few months to figure out exactly what their biggest needs are before looking to rectify them with that open roster spot.
How successful will they be at tuning out distractions this season?
JG: About as well as any team in their first season of LeBron being on their team has. I agree with the argument made by our EIC last week. Tyrese Maxey is maybe the most equipped star to deal with quote-un-quote distractions in the history of the league.
Between the amount of trolling Embiid has done this preseason on top of his obvious physical transformation, it seems like he’s the least concerned he’s been about outside noise in his entire career. The pressure will obviously heat up on this team if they get off to a slow start, but just about every one of these stars has dealt with plenty of media circuses in their careers. It’s just one more thing they had to prepare for this season.
EG: I think they will be more than fine in that regard. Guys like Embiid and Maxey have had more than their fair share of distractions in their Philly tenures, so I’m sure they’re used to it. LeBron has dealt with it all since he was a teenager. Brown can sometimes get caught up in what the media is saying/how they are saying it, but that doesn’t seem to distract him from performing. Overall, I’m not worried about that aspect of things.
HG: Dare I say I actually feel good about their ability to make this work? Wherever LeBron goes, a media circus tends to follow, and that’s been no exception in Philly. But I have to imagine the key players knew exactly what they were signing up for when this team came together.
When Brown was introduced, he touched on a similar point, saying that at this stage of his career, he’s focused on winning championships, not individual accolades. We already know Maxey and Embiid are still chasing their first title. If winning remains the priority–and there’s no reason to think it won’t right now–this group should be fine no matter how many TV talking heads spend the season trying to microanalyze every aspect of the team, including their preferred methods of transportation (helicopters).
At the end of the day, talent isn’t usually what derails teams like this. Ego and competing agendas do. If everyone stays aligned on the ultimate goal, the outside noise will be just that: noise.
PH: My initial thought is they’ve been great at it so far. We know LeBron will be fine. I’m confident Maxey and Edgecombe will be, too. The concerns are with Brown and Embiid, though, I do think both guys are motivated to make this work. Let’s face it – both have had their names dragged through the mud. Winning a championship with this team would shut a lot of people up.
WR: I do not think it will be much of an issue. All of the core guys outside of VJ Edgecombe have been a part of chaotic situations with their teams throughout their careers. Brown dealt with the Jayson Tatum rift in Boston, Embiid and Maxey went through the Harden and Ben Simmons, and LeBron has been in the spotlight and under a microscope his whole life.
BT: I don’t think the typical circus of a LeBron team will be what derails this year’s Sixers. Health, frontcourt depth and three-point shooting are far bigger concerns. With that said, a slow start to the season could turn up the heat on Nick Nurse’s seat. And unfortunately, with the Eagles’ season already circling the drain, everyone’s attention in Philadelphia will be squarely on the Sixers for the next six months.
What will be the Sixers’ regular-season record? Will they make the playoffs?
JG: I think they win 48 games this season and earn a top-six seed, but it will not be easy. The East is as deep as it’s ever been as a conference, although there are teams that are built for the playoffs and teams that are built for the regular season without a lot of overlap.
Teams like Detroit, Boston and Cleveland could all rip off a ton of regular-season wins like they have in recent seasons, but I have big red flags for all three when it comes to the playoffs. The Toronto Raptors may also fit into this category if Kawhi Leonard can’t stay healthy for a postseason run.
I believe the Sixers will fall into a similar category as the New York Knicks. They could both struggle fighting through the slog of the regular season, but if they get to the playoffs in one piece, no one will want to be matched up with them in the first round.
With the conference being so crowded, the highest I see the Sixers ending up is probably the fourth seed, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be disappointed in how the regular season went by any means.
EG: With the current lineup, they should be capable of winning close to 50 games this season. Any unexpected injuries to important players could throw this for a loop, but as it stands, I can’t see an excuse to not be pushing 50 wins.
What position that will earn them in the East is more up in the air. The East is top-heavy coming into this season with no shortage of teams expected to be contending for high finishes. You obviously hope they fall into the top six rather than having to fight through the play-in tournament if they finish somewhere between seventh and 10th, but I think it’s going to take an impressive record to accomplish that in the East this season. Cards on the table, I think they finish within the top six, but not by much.
HG: That’s a tough one to predict, not because of any reservations about this team, but because of the state of the East. Honestly, it’s as deep as I’ve seen it in my years of covering basketball. There may not be many truly bad teams, which means we’re likely to see a lot of clubs finish in the high-40s to low-50s in wins. Any team that gets to 55-plus victories will probably be right in the mix for the No. 1 seed.
Factoring in LeBron’s age, Embiid’s health and the general weirdness that always seems to follow this franchise, I feel comfortable projecting them around 50 wins. They have some of the best top-end talent in the conference and, unlike past years, now have a competent bench to support those stars. Mike Gansey built a legitimate roster, and if they stay mostly healthy, it’s hard to see them finishing outside the top six despite how deep the conference has become.
The bigger question may not be whether they’re good enough, but whether they can stay on the floor long enough to maximize their potential. If they do, they have the talent to be much more than just a playoff team.
PH: The record is so tricky because of Embiid’s health, LeBron’s age and an improved conference. I’ll go 52-30 because I think even if those two don’t play as much as you’d hope, Maxey, Edgecombe and Brown can carry them to plenty of wins. I could see it being much higher if things come together quickly or much lower if … yeah. I think they secure home-court advantage for the first round. Let’s go with the three seed.
BT: They won 45 games last season even though Embiid and Paul George each missed more than half the year. Yes, the East projects to be far tougher this year, and teams no longer have the same incentive to tank, which means they won’t be able to pick up as many free wins as they did last year. But swapping out George for Brown and adding LeBron, Anfernee Simons, KCP and Dean Wade should help counteract that. Put me down for 51-31 and the No. 4 seed in the East.
How far will they advance in the playoffs?
JG: To the conference finals. I haven’t broken down my full bracket yet to predict when they’ll play each team in each round, but finally breaking that second-round barrier and still ending the season with a disappointing playoff loss would be a really Sixers way for this to go.
It normally takes a season for LeBron teams to figure each other out, so I’m trying to add that into my calculus. Even a run that ends in the conference finals would take a lot of health luck going the Sixers’ way as well, which is a bold thing to feel confident about. I think this team can go far, but it’s still likely to end in heartbreak.
EG: At least the conference finals. This is a team that has, under much worse circumstances/with much worse rosters, made it to the second round relatively routinely in recent history. Of course, the competition also changes every year, but they’re in so much better of a spot on paper to be able to finally break the second-round curse that has loomed over them.
HG: I think they finally break the stubborn barrier that is the Eastern Conference Finals, health permitting. They simply have too much talent and creation to not get there as constructed. Factor in all of their key players having various playoff experience, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t surpass this bar outside of injuries.
PH: I think they at least make it to the ECF, but, again, health-dependent, this team should be able to compete with anyone. With the right move or two on the margins, they have championship potential.
WR: NBA Finals, I believe this team is being overanalyzed and overscrutinized by a lot of people. This starting five is stacked, and their ability to stagger lineups and keep two superstars on the floor at all times will be their superpower. I trust that between Maxey, Brown and Edgecombe, they will be able to carry the Sixers to wins in games that Embiid and LeBron are out and get the Sixers to a quality seed. I have faith that if there is a weakness in this roster construct that’s glaring, Gansey will rectify at the deadline.
BT: The Eastern Conference Finals. I’m with Will: Skeptics are way overthinking this team. They’re bound to go through growing pains, but this is an outrageous compilation of talent, and they all seem to be at the right point of their respective careers to make it work. The East figures to be a bloodbath this year, but that’s where the Sixers’ combination of high-end talent and reliable bench depth should help separate them from the rest of the conference. Consider this a hedge against health and the Year 1 LeBron experience, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they made it to the Finals this year.
Will they win a championship before LeBron leaves/retires?
JG: My answer is the same as my reaction when they were first taken seriously as LeBron suitors: Screw it, why not? Life’s too short anyways.
EG: Why the hell not? I certainly think it’s the best chance they’ve had in quite some time.
HG: Regardless of your opinion on LeBron, things just seem to go right for him at one point or another. What’s to say that won’t be the case here?
PH: They better.
WR: Yes, the final chapter of the LeBron story can’t end any other way. Embiid gets his ring that’s long eluded him, and we celebrate on Broad Street.
BT: Realistically, they probably have two years at most to get it done. Even if it doesn’t happen this year, financial pressures will force some other title hopefuls–OKC, Cleveland and Orlando in particular–to make some painful calls next offseason. Is it too early to get a “2028 NBA champions” Sixers tattoo?
