We’re officially in the middle of one of the best stretches of the sports calendar. Conference tournaments right into March Madness. Doesn’t get much better than that.
The ACC tournament has already provided its share of early-round fireworks, as 15th-seeded Pitt upset Stanford in the opening round, while Wake Forest needed overtime to knock out Virginia Tech, effectively ending any and all hope for the Hokies’ chances to earn a bid to the Big Dance.
For Ryan Odom and the second-seeded Virginia Cavaliers,
they’ll take the floor Thursday at *sighs* noon against either NC State or Pitt, and after what’s been as successful a regular season as any first-year head coach could have, the ‘Hoos are obviously in a great spot to punch a ticket into Saturday’s title game. With that, a look at how two seeds have done in the ACC tourney as of late…it’s surprising, honestly.
For starters, a two-seed hasn’t won this tournament since 2011. A drought of well over a decade-plus is pretty shocking, considering how elite some of those teams were (2015 eventual national title-winning Duke and 2016 UVA come to mind here) and given there was once a time where the double-bye punched a ticket all the way to the semifinals not long ago, before format changes have led to UVA and the three other top-seeds now taking the floor for the first time in the quarterfinal rounds this week.
Not only has the two not won it in a while, second-seeded teams have struggled just to claw into the final game itself. Since that 2011 Duke team that hoisted the trophy, Two’s have been eliminated in the quarters four times and sent home in the semis five times. Second seeds not even sniffing the final game in nine of the last 14 tournaments stands out. Two’s going 0-4 in title games throughout that span is interesting, but not outrageous, at least.
But if you look at the context of this ACC tournament, things look promising for the ‘Hoos. Whether it’s Pitt or NC State advancing to meet UVA on Thursday, the ‘Hoos have handled both as well as they handled anyone in conference play. A 20-point home win in a snoozy late-weeknight over the Panthers feels helpful for a possible neutral site game at noon on a weekday to go with two memorable thrashings of the Wolfpack should have this team feeling confident going into its first tourney game inside Jacari White’s house Spectrum Center.
Looking ahead to the semis, potential meetings with No.3 seed Miami or a sneaky 11-seed in SMU could be dogfights, given Miami’s size and comparable shooting ceiling to UVA’s. Boopie Miller is the perfect microwave for any underdog team looking to make a run, and the Mustangs have enough size in the frontcourt to hang around, as evidenced by we saw UVA’s close-win back in January.
Louisville would be the third potential opponent here. the Cardinals are set to meet the Mustangs at 2:30 eastern on Wednesday, but without Mikel Brown Jr., who has been ruled out for the ACC tourney, it would certainly be tough sledding for the Cardinals to score effectively enough without a star like Brown Jr., should they advance.
Looking forward to potential championship matchups, things are looking a liiiittle more interesting with Duke set to be without two starters in Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster, who were recently ruled out by Jon Scheyer early in the week. While Ngongba II and Foster weren’t the biggest of reasons as to why Duke ran circles around UVA for 40 minutes a few weeks ago, it would definitely help UVA take charge of the paint, and simply the lack of flow a team could have by being down two starters could very well matter on top of that.
Fourth-seeded North Carolina wouldn’t look the same as they did when the ‘Hoos last saw them as well, should they advance, with future top-NBA pick Caleb Wilson officially out for the year with a broken thumb. UVA made him earn most of his buckets in that game in JPJ, but he still found a way to hang 20. Potentially helpful in a UVA-UNC championship matchup, but a real bummer for any and all hoops fans that Wilson won’t be out there this week as one of the league’s biggest stars this season.
UVA’s road to a potential ACC title game looks better than it did a few weeks ago, that’s for sure. Throw in the oddity of two-seeds not doing as well as you’d might expect as of late, and maybe the stars are set to align for Odom and the Cavaliers to make a little history at the right time this week. Regardless, it should be a fun next few days down in Charlotte.
