9. Oregon
Predicted Starting Lineup
Jackson Shelstad, Junior, 13.7 ppg/2.9 rpg/2.7 apg
Shelstad is a lightning quick three-level scorer who only needs a sliver of space to find a path to the rim or get up a pull-up jumper. He just sustained a hand injury that will keep him out 4-6 weeks but should be back up to speed by conference season. While his efficiency did improve slightly from his freshman to sophomore year, he did not take the leap to superstardom that many expected and was mostly the same player he was as a freshman. Will
the heir apparent to Payton Pritchard emerge this year?
TK Simpkins, Senior, 16.4 ppg/3.1 rpg/2.6 apg at Elon
Another scoring guard, TK had a green light from Curry range last year and still managed to shoot 38% from three. As always with low-major transfers, we will see how he handles the increased athleticism.
Devon Pryor, Junior, 3.2 ppg/2.0 rpg/0.5 apg at Texas
Pryor is an uber-athletic wing with an incredibly raw offensive game. He has not demonstrated the ability to do much besides straight line dunks and putbacks, but I don’t know who else to put in this position for the Ducks.
Kwame Evans, Junior, 6.1 ppg/4.6 rpg/0.7 apg
The shine has come off the former five-star recruit for Oregon. Evans is an athletic forward who has had some exciting flashes but regressed from his freshman to sophomore year particularly in defensive impact. Is there more to his game than occasional highlight blocks and dunks?
Nate Bittle, Senior, 14.2 ppg/7.6 rpg/1.9 apg/2.1 bpg
The Monstar version of Theo Von, Nate Bittle is one of the better returning players in the conference. He is a bit of a lumbering big man but is a strong rim protector and intelligent offensive player. He can respectably stretch to three and is a very capable roll man in the pick and roll. Bittle considered until late in the process staying in the draft before deciding to head back to Eugene for one more year.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Because every time Illinos has played Oregon in a Big Ten game, they have beaten them by over 30. Jokes aside, Oregon loses because Boswell and Tomislav can match up with Shelstad and Bittle as well as just about any team in the conference, and the talent and depth of the supporting cast swings strongly in Illinois’ favor.
Why They Beat Illinois
Bittle and Shelstad is a very dangerous combo that can combine for 50 points on any given night. Their defense should be tough, and Altman is a very good coach.
X-Factor
Oregon might have the best 1-2 punch in the conference outside of West Lafayette, the problem is the rest of the roster. Expecting a big leap from Kwame Evans, Devon Pryor or Sean Stewart (another athletic but unpolished forward with high major pedigree at Duke and Ohio State but low results) at this point in their career seems overly optimistic, and expectations for low major transfers like TK Simpkins can’t be set too high. The bigger swing players are Oregon’s incoming international class. None of them are massive spotlight recruits, but there is a chance one or two of them pop. The most intriguing is 6-foot-10 Turkish forward Efe Vatan, whose highlights mostly consist of him treating the rim like it insulted his mama. Nigerian Ege Demir is a massive human being who will back up Bittle while he does work in the weight room to lose some weight and gain mobility. Rounding out the Model United Nations class is Ukrainian small forward Oleksandr Kobzysti and Chinese guard Wei Lin, neither of whom much is expected this year, but you never know with international recruits.
Bottom Line
Bittle, Shelstad and Altman give Oregon a likely NCAA Tournament floor, but the rest of the team is so unproven it’s hard to feel confident about putting them much higher.
8. Ohio State
Predicted Starting Lineup
Bruce Thornton, Senior, 17.7 ppg/3.4 rpg/4.6 apg
The rare four-year player at the same school, most Illini fans are very familiar with Thornton. He has always been a strong guard who can bully his way to the rim, what he added to his game last year was efficiency, increasing his field goal percentage from 43 to 50 and his three-point percentage from 33 to 42 on his way to a second team All-Big Ten recognition. This conference is loaded with point guards.
John Mobley, Sophomore, 13.0 ppg/1.5 rpg/2.2 apg
Mobley is a sniper, with over half his shots coming from three, shooting them at a 38.5% clip as a freshman. He was a streaky shooter as a freshman, with five games where he made at least four threes and scored 20 or more points. He will look to become more consistent as a sophomore and avoid the games where he is a non-factor.
Devin Royal, Junior, 13.7 ppg/6.9 rpg/1.1 apg
Royal took a big jump as a sophomore, going from 4.7 to 13.7 pints per game. His play style can best be described as human bowling ball, except when he played Illinois when he tied a career high with three triples made. Between him and Thornton, defenses need to wear their football pads when they play Ohio State.
Brandon Noel, Senior, 19.0 ppg/7.7 rpg/1.7 apg at Wright State
Noel is a stretch four transferring up from the Horizon League. His jumper should provide solid spacing for Thornton and Royal, but the post-up game he relied on probably won’t play with his lack of size and athleticism.
Cristoph Tilly, Senior, 12.5 ppg/4.9 ppg/1.9 apg at Santa Clara
Tilly was an Illinois transfer target this offseason, perhaps as a fallback option if Zvonomir stayed at Arkansas. The Garman import has solid touch around the rim and a little ability to stretch outside, but is not very mobile nor is he a very strong rebounder considering his seven-foot size.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Kylan Boswell might be the player best suited to slow down Bruce Thornton in the entire country. Even if Royal is a problem again, Ohio State does not have a very strong defense. Last year Royal, Thornton, and Mobley combined for 69 points, but the rest of the team only scored 10 and they still lost. Supporting cast is very much still a question mark.
Why They Beat Illinois
Our players fall asleep playing in Columbus’ empty gym. Mirkovic is the best option for slowing down Royal, but as a freshman he is liable to be foul prone. Noel and Tilly might hit a few more shots than their supporting cast last year.
X-Factor
Tilly and Noel. Last year, Ohio State went with high pedigree players who disappointed at blue bloods down low. The hyperathletic Sean Stewart came from Duke and couldn’t stay on the floor because he fouled too much. Aaron Bradshaw and his seemingly 8-foot wingspan came in from Kentucky, but he preferred floating outside to using his shot blocking and rim running talents. Both decided to transfer out to the next high-major schools to try to fix, and Diebler went the other way, preferring to go with highly productive players from lower levels. How good this team can be will depend on if they have the mobility and strength to play against bigs at this level.
Bottom Line
Copy and paste from Oregon, just with one more high-level player. Their ceiling is double bye high if Diebler proves he can coach and the low-major transfers fit in well, but I will believe it when I see it with this team.
7. Iowa
Predicted Starting Lineup
Bennett Stirtz, Senior, 19.2 ppg/4.3 rpg/5.7 apg at Drake
Like his coach, Bennett Stirtz has had a meteoric rise in college basketball. From JUCO player for two years to directly becoming the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year is a massive jump. He could have taken the next big leap directly to the NBA but decided to forego the entire draft process to follow his coach to Drake, despite being a potential first round pick. Stirtz has the size, athleticism, vision and shooting to be a successful point guard at this level and the next. If Iowa is good enough, he will be an All-American.
Brendan Hausen, Senior, 10.9 ppg/2.5 rpg/0.8 apg at Kansas State
Pure shooter. He shot 39% from three last year on seven attempts per game. He doesn’t bring much besides that, but having someone who you can’t give an inch of space will open up the floor for Stirtz.
Tavion Banks, Senior, 10.1 ppg/5.0 rpg/1.0 apg at Drake
Another Juco player before his year at Drake, Banks is an athletic wing and strong defender and cutter. He wasn’t much of a shooter at Drake, but the rumblings are that his shot might be much improved. They said the same thing about Ty Rodgers, so who knows.
Alvaro Folgueiras, Junior, 14.1 ppg/9.1 rpg/3.2 apg/1.2 bpg/1.4 spg at Robert Morris
With all the attention rightfully on Stirtz, Folgueiras goes a little under the radar as a massive transfer. The 6-foot-10 Spaniard has a very polished game on both ends. He shot 41% from three, but also is a tough guard in the post, especially when guarded by fours and can find cutters. His postgame reminds me of Trey Kaufman-Renn, in that you know he is going to go to his right hand, but you still can’t stop it. Defensively has active hands and good timing. Almost led Robert Morris to a 15-2 upset of Alabama in the tourney.
Cam Manyawu, Junior, 7.1 ppg/5.3 rpg/0.9 apg/1.3 spg at Drake
Manyawu is an undersized center at 6-foot-9, although at 250 pounds he has the weight to bang with the big boys. He doesn’t have much of a game away from the basket but is a high motor player who gets putbacks. Defensively he isn’t a rim protector or particularly fleet of foot, but he has quick hands and good instincts, 1.3 steals per game in 19 minutes for a center is impressive.
Why Illinois Beats Them
They lack some size inside with no main rotation players over 6-foot-10. Ivisic should be able to get his jump hook off without too much contention, and offensive rebounding leads to a possession advantage. Defensively they will be better than the Fran years, but still aren’t the kind of team that can really impose their will.
Why They Beat Illinois
All the offseason talk is that Illinois is going to be more aggressive and more variable in defensive scheme. Until we see it though, if we play the same drop coverage we played last year Bennett Stirtz and Alvaro Folgueiras will rip that apart from the midrange.
X-Factor
For me, it has to be Ben McCollum. Taking a bunch of Juco players and winning the Missouri Valley is incredible. Now, he has taken five Drake players and will try to win in the Big Ten. I hate to say it, but Illinois fans and the rest of the Big Ten are going to miss the days of Fran McCaffery. He seems like he could be a Bo Ryan-esque figure at Iowa, finding diamonds in the rough and developing them into stars. He is a native Iowan as well and might have some loyalty if bigger schools come calling, as he already chose Iowa over Indiana.
Bottom Line
Stirtz is going to be great, Folgueiras a solid compliment, and the pieces around those two just fit very well. I don’t think they have enough talent to push for the top few spots in the conference, but I trust them to play closer to their ceiling than some of the other teams in this range.
6. Michigan State
Predicted Starting Lineup
Jeremy Fears, Junior, 7.2 ppg/2.1 rpg/5.4 apg
With Jase Richardson in the NBA, Jaden Akins out of eligibility, and Tre Holloman transferred to NC State, Jeremy Fears is all that is left to run the show in the backcourt. A true passing guard, he will be expected to shoulder a bit more of the scoring burden this year, and perhaps improve his three-point shot that he rarely attempted last year.
Trey Fort, Senior, 14.6 ppg/4.0 rpg/1.4 apg at Samford
Fort is the ultimate college journey man, now playing for his fifth school in six years (UT Martin, JUCO Howard College, Mississippi State, Samford, Michigan State). He is a good shooter at 38% from three on 6.4 attempts a game, but was only used sparingly two years ago for Mississippi State.
Coen Carr, Junior, 8.1 ppg/3.6 rpg/0.5 apg
Carr is a human highlight reel with his athletic dunks and blocks but has yet to demonstrate much nuance to his offensive game and has only made five threes in his first two years.
Jaxon Kohler, Senior, 7.8 ppg/7.5 rpg/1.3 apg
Kohler is a typical Izzo dirty work merchant. He has some decent post up moves and a good mid-range jumper that he started extended three last year, particularly in the Illinois game, of course. What he does best is attack the offensive glass and play physical interior defense.
Carson Cooper, Senior, 5.0 ppg/5.2 rpg/0.6 apg
Cooper is good defensively but will need to expand his offensive game beyond pick and roll lobs and putbacks to pick up the slack this year. With Kohler and redshirt freshman Jesse McCulloch being the only other players on the roster above six-foot-nine, Cooper will be looking to take a big leap in playing time from 17 minutes to 25+.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Simple math: three is more than two. Michigan State was able to win the Big Ten by three games last year despite being near the bottom in the country in three-point attempts and percentages but should be even worse this year with no one on the roster who has made more than 19 three-pointers in a year at the high major level. Trey Fort and maybe the lightly used Kur Teng are the only players who project as above average shooters, unless someone makes unexpected improvement.
Why They Beat Illinois
They will do the typical Michigan State things. They will be one of the best defensive teams in the conference, they will rebound well, and they will get some easy points in transition. The lone game with Sparty this year is in East Lansing, which is always a very tough place to play.
X-Factor
There are rumblings out of the program that Coen Carr is going to take a massive jump offensively as a junior. With the depth the Spartans had last year, Carr didn’t need to have an advanced offensive game to be an effective role player for them. This year, they will need him or someone else to step up and be a 15 point per game scorer more or less, as they are not going to go eleven deep again. With his athleticism, if he had a bit more feel for the game, dribbling and shooting ability, Carr would be an NBA player, but I will need to see it to believe it.
Bottom Line
They are the opposite of Washington. The Huskies have a roster I really like but just finished dead last in the conference and are hard to trust. Michigan State has what looks like a significantly weaker roster than last year, losing their top three scorers without an obvious option to replace them, and losing Kaleb Glenn, their biggest transfer pickup, to a season ending injury already. No one expected them to win the Big Ten last year though, so some respect needs to be given for Izzo’s formula still working. Internal improvement can be expected from Fears, Carr, Kohler and Cooper, and freshman Cam Ward looks like he can be a solid contributor immediately, so sixth seems about right.
5. Wisconsin
Predicted Starting Lineup
Nick Boyd, Senior, 13.4 ppg/3.9 rpg/3.9 apg at San Diego State
Wisconsin found themselves a solid point guard and a proven winner in the portal with Nick Boyd. Boyd was a starter for Dusty May at FAU during their run to the Championship game, before heading to another mid-major powerhouse at San Diego State. While he won’t be a superstar, he is a solidly built point guard who will defend, take care of the ball, and shoot the ball decently. Biggest question is why he chose Madison, Wisconsin after four years in Boca Raton and San Diego?
Andrew Rohde, Senior, 9.3 ppg/2.9 rpg/4.3 apg at Virginia
Exactly what you picture when you think of a Wisconsin player. From Ben Brust to Bronson Koenig to Brad Davison, Wisconsin always seems to have the buzzcut guard who plays fundamentally sound, able to pass, dribble and shoot but with the athleticism of a YMCA warrior. Rohde shot 41% from three last year with an impressive 4.3/1.8 assist to turnover ratio.
John Blackwell, Junior, 15.8 ppg/5.1 rpg/2.2 apg
With John Tonje gone, expect Blackwell to be the next high volume Wisconsin wing scorer after Johnny Davis, AJ Storr, and Tonje. Averaged 18.2 ppg/5.9 rpg/2.1 apg over the last 10 games last year, which will be the expectation for the preseason All-Big Ten player this year.
Austin Rapp, Sophomore, 13.8 ppg/6.5 rpg/2.5 apg/1.5 bpg at Portland
Rapp impressed as a freshman import from Australia, winning West Coast Conference Rookie of the Year. He has some size and athleticism to his game as evidenced by his block numbers, and was a massive chucker offensively, getting up 7.6 threes per game at 35.2%. Even with the step up in competion, that percentage may rise as he gets higher quality shots surrounded by better players.
Nolan Winter, Junior, 9.4 ppg/5.8 rpg/1.1 apg
The other returning starter for Wisconsin, Winter will take on the full-time center role with Steven Crowl gone. Once again, just picture almost every Wisconsin center before him to imagine his game. Good shooter, solid post moves, a little more athletic than Crowl was.
Why Illinois Beats Them
There are some questions defensively for Wisconsin, but I am going to focus on depth. The starting five is really solid, but if they have any injuries or foul trouble, Braeden Carrington, Jack Janicki and Elijah Gray don’t really have the difference making ability that the Illinois bench has.
Why They Beat Illinois
One of the few teams who will be able to go toe-to-toe with the Illini offensively, they can spread a team out defensively with five shooters and open up cutting lines and corner threes with ball movement. The days of the swing offense are long gone even if Gard maintains vestiges of it, and Wisconsin will play fast with nowhere to hide a slow or inattentive defender.
X-Factor
John Blackwell is the star, and Andrew Rohde and Nick Boyd will play their roles well. Andrew Rapp might have some question marks transferring up from Portland, but the shooting is real, and Gard won’t put too much on his plate right away. The biggest question regarding their ceiling is if Nolan Winter can step up and be the Robin to Blackwell’s Batman. He has flashed the skill to become a star level player, but in short bursts previously. For Wisconsin to be really good and pushing for a conference title, Winter will need to be around 15 points per game consistently.
Bottom Line
This should be another solid regular season Badger team. They probably don’t have a conference champion ceiling, but they have experience and an identity that gives them a very high floor. Expect a 3-6 seed in the NCAA Tournament followed by a first weekend exit, because that is what Wisconsin does.
