Of all possible games in the UEFA Champions League, none have been played more often than this one. Bayern Munich and Real Madrid have a European rivalry that goes back decades, the kind that oil money and American businessmen can’t buy.
Madrid fans had an old nickname for the Bavarians: “La Bestia Negra” aka “the Black Beast”, referencing the FC Bayern away kit colors and the numerous times the two teams have clashed in Europe. It also neatly contrasts Madrid’s own “Los Blancos” nickname, underscoring
the rivalry.
Recently however, the black beast has been more of a dusty gray kitten. Madrid are 8 games unbeaten against FC Bayern since 2014, scoring 19 goals and conceding 9, for an overall record of 6 wins and 2 draws. You have to go as far back as 2012 for the last time the Bavarians won a knockout game against the men from the Spanish capital.
So, with another tie coming up, does everyone feel confident? Well, here’s why you shouldn’t be.
The matchup
Bayern Munich are a simple team to describe. Vincent Kompany has built a complex system of various moving parts, but it is still fundamentally a Guardiolan possession oriented philosophy. Emphasis is on building out from the back, controlling the game, exerting offensive pressure, gegenpressing out of possession, and overloading the flanks.
Madrid are different. They have no philosophy. Xabi Alonso tried to instill some tactical discipline in them, but he failed and got sacked. They are a team that adapts itself to the opponent. What’s worse, they know how to hurt Bayern Munich. They already did it to Manchester City.
Real Madrid are, fundamentally, an elite counterattacking unit. They have no problem waiting out of possession, pouncing on the ball and scoring at the other end. They have players capable of rapid vertical passing, and elite runners who are excellent at playing off defenders. Against City, Arbeloa showed how a possession based system can quickly fall apart when faced with this caliber of counterattack. The matchup is strongly in their favor.
To use a Pokémon analogy, FC Bayern is a Garchomp while Madrid is a Weavile. Garchomp may have higher stats, but Weavile outspeeds and KO’s it before it can do anything. That’s the current dynamic between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. A tactical mismatch.
The mentality
There is no team that exemplifies “big game mentality” more than Real Madrid. What they did to Man City they had no business doing. Even with the matchup advantage, City had more quality and far better form coming into the game, while Madrid missed key players due to injury.
They won anyway.
Their players somehow dug in and found the will to win. They scored when they had to, barely missed a chance (aside from one penalty). City did not know what hit them. It was all over inside 45 minutes at the Bernabéu.
They have done this over and over again, winning games they logically shouldn’t, because their players showed up and the opponents didn’t. On the flip side of the coin, Bayern Munich have a serious mentality issue in the Champions League.
The team rarely brings its A-game to UCL knockouts. Fans have seen it over and over again. The best players either get injured or don’t perform, the coach makes baffling decisions, and someone always (without fail) makes a devastatingly stupid error at the back. It happens year after year and becomes especially bad during Madrid games.
There is simply no contest. When it comes to mentality, Real Madrid are worlds ahead of Bayern Munich. And in the Champions League, that matters.
The X factor
There is no easy way to explain this without looking like a conspiracy theorist.
There is something up with Real Madrid. They have more luck than the average team. It’s almost supernatural. This isn’t just about the referee, though the refereeing is a part of it. Madrid are refereed differently compared to other teams. That is a fact of life. No, this is more sinister.
Things just don’t work out against Madrid. Your star striker gets injured a week before the game. Your super experienced goalkeeper makes an amateur error in the final minutes. You score, but the referee calls it back for offside. It wasn’t offside, but because the linesman blew his whistle, VAR can’t intervene.
Some of it can be down to a combination of luck and referee help. That is for certain. But how do teams somehow constantly miss chances vs Madrid? How is it they survive by the skin of their teeth, then go down the other end and score with their first attack? How do experienced keepers constantly make mistakes, and good defenders lose their heads?
In the Champions League, Madrid have a strange aura of invulnerability around them that is difficult to shatter. This doesn’t mean they never lose, just that a lot needs to go right in order for them to lose. A team can’t just show up and play their regular game. They need to play an excellent game, and hope Madrid play a mediocre one, to tip the balance far enough for the pendulum to swing the other direction.
This X factor is arguably the biggest, and most nebulous, reason that Kompany’s Bayern will lose to Madrid. They might have the tactics, they might have the personnel, they might have the form. But everything hinges on the X factor, and Madrid have it. Let me leave you with this:
Additional (smaller) reasons
- Injuries: Players like Aleksandar Pavlović, Alphonso Davies, and Jamal Musiala being out could make Bayern Munich weak.
- International break: The international break resets the team’s form, increases fatigue, and brings additional opportunities for injury.
- First leg: The first leg being at the Santiago Bernabéu is both a blessing and a curse. It could go wrong if Bayern concede early and start chasing the game from the outset, being forced to open up and concede more counters.
If you are looking for more Bayern Munich and German national team coverage, check out the latest episodes of Bavarian Podcast Works, which you can get on Acast, Spotify, Apple, or any leading podcast distributor…
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