Strength of schedule can be misleading. I think that like many of you, upon seeing the Colts’ schedule ranked as the 4th easiest on release night, I was in full on “huh?” mode. That strength of schedule (SOS) was based on team records from last year. I saw a newer release, based the projected over/under win totals for all teams for the coming year. Mike Kadlick, over on SI reranked the schedule, which saw the Colts move to tied for the 12th easiest schedule. It tells a more accurate story and still
offers a path to some wins, but not the cakewalk that the first release suggested.
Much of the difference in the rankings comes from our first two games. The Ravens only counted as 8 wins toward last year’s SOS, but brings a projected 11.5 wins to this year’s. The Chiefs were similar in that they only had 6 wins last year, but get a projected 10.5 this year. That is an 8 point swing and makes up a big chunk of that variation. In case you were wondering, the Colts come in at 7.5 wins.
On the surface, the first two games look daunting. Lamar Jackson missed four games and was less than full strength for others. They also uncharacteristically gave up just short of 400 points, good for 18th in the league. This combination got the coach fired, no matter how amicably. They used their first two picks on the lines, which is what solid teams do, but this also could tell us that they feel the lines to be a weakness on the team. Their first pick was an OG, so it looks like they still want to lean on Henry, even at 32 years old. They took an Edge that many of us had our eye on in Young. Their sack leader last year had 5. They also took a big swing acquiring Hendrickson.
They also took WRs with their 3rd and 4th picks. Flowers is a very good receiver, but him and a couple of rookies may not be enough, after not being in any hurry to bring back Hopkins or Hollywood. They lost Likely, leaving an aging Andrews to lean on at TE. I guess this is what happens when you have a franchise QB? Your expectations are high, even when you look to be searching for answers.
As for the Chiefs. We have been conditioned to believe that as long as Mahomes is healthy, the Chiefs remain near the mountain top and an obstacle that must be cleared to win the AFC. Heck, we’ve also seen a not so healthy Mahomes work playoff magic. Both he and Daniel Jones are labelled as questionable at this early date, but I say both players start in week 1. That is easy for me to say without a being a doctor or watching either of them in camp, but both are reportedly progressing well.
The Chiefs were struggling before Mahomes went down. They kept hovering around a game under .500 and seldom showed that air of invincibility that they had rightfully earned. It seemed like they expected to flip a switch whenever Worthy and Rice were healthy, but they were not all healthy together. It was also a pretty turbulent off season for them. They will have a new secondary and it will be green. They will be bringing back Kelce and paying him handsomely. Jones is going to make up an enormous percentage of their cap.
Mahomes has earned the right to be counted on for production in big moments, but getting through the season is part of the equation as well. I am not expecting them to fall off of a cliff or anything, but aside from Patrick, there is a lot of uncertainty. Add in the uncertainty surrounding PM and they need quite a lot to go right for them to stay at or near the top of the AFC.
So, while the first two games are against teams that have been historically strong, I struggle to see a clear path to being the version of themself that we are used to. We actually play both teams pretty well. It took the league 10 weeks to get a book on us last year, so you have (could choose) to believe that we will be bringing the league some more to prepare for this year. Getting a lead might not be that difficult against these two opponents, but we’d still be holding our breath in preparation for a couple of future HOFers doing that thing we’ve often seen them do. At that point we get to see what Lou can do with the new players.
I guess you can call this a “counter point” to the article that Spradley put out earlier today, but I like our chances to make the talking heads ask if the Colts are that good, or are the Ravens and Chiefs in decline? A 2 – 0 start would raise some eyebrows and I see no reason that it can’t happen.
