Win/Loss records are based on not just how good of a team you have, but is also highly dependent on the schedules. Another factor is how good the coaching staff is at preparing a game plan, calling plays, and making adjustments during the game. And luck can be a factor as well; penalties, injuries, turnovers, etc. can all impact a game-especially close games.
Win Totals
The odds makers have established win totals for each of the teams. Here is where they are for each of the Big Ten teams. (Note that these may
be slightly different depending on where you look. These are from Action Network.)
- Illinois: 7.5
- Indiana: 8.5
- Iowa: 7.5
- Maryland: 4.5
- Michigan: 8.5
- Michigan State: 5.5
- Minnesota: 7.5
- Nebraska: 6.5
- Northwestern: 3.5
- Ohio State: 10.5
- Oregon: 10.5
- Penn State: 10.5
- Purdue: 2.5
- Rutgers: 5.5
- UCLA: 5.5
- USC: 7.5
- Washington: 7.5
- Wisconsin: 5.5
Let’s look at the schedule for each team to see how reasonable these are. For each game I’m averaging the expected win percentage from ESPN’s FPI, Massey, and Kelley Ford. If the average projected win percentage is greater than 60%, that’s an expected win. If it is less than 40%, that is an expected loss. And if it is between them, the game could go either way and it is noted as a ‘Toss-up’. We’ll go in reverse-alphabetic order.
Wisconsin
The over/under for wins for Wisconsin is 5.5.
- Miami (Ohio): 88%, Win
- Middle Tennessee: 97%, Win
- At Alabama: 10%, Loss
- Maryland: 70%, Win
- At Michigan: 20%, Loss
- Iowa: 45%, Toss-up
- Ohio State: 13%, Loss
- At Oregon: 14%, Loss
- Washington: 56%, Toss-up
- At Indiana: 31%, Loss
- Illinois: 57%, Toss-up
- At Minnesota: 42%, Toss-up
That’s 3 wins, 5 losses, and 4 toss-ups. The likely range is between 3 and 7 wins. Assuming that they split the ‘toss-up’ games, that is a 5-7 record. To get over 5.5, Wisconsin would need to win 3 of those 4 ‘toss-up’ games, or pull an upset.
Washington
The over/under for wins for UW is 7.5.
- Colorado State: 91%, Win
- UC Davis: 95%, Win
- At WSU: 78%, Win
- Ohio State: 17%, Loss
- At Maryland: 59%, Toss-up
- Rutgers: 66%, Win
- At Michigan: 21%, Loss
- Illinois: 58%, Toss-up
- At Wisconsin: 46%, Toss-up
- Purdue: 89%, Win
- At UCLA: 54%, Toss-up
- Oregon: 29%, Loss
That’s 5 wins, 3 losses, and 4 toss-ups. The likely range is between 5 and 9 wins. Assuming that they split the toss-up games, that is a 7-5 record. To get over 7.5, UW would need to win 3 of the 4 ‘toss-up’ games, or pull an upset. Since 2 of those ‘toss-up’ games are very close to the threshold for a win, winning both of them seems very possible. If they can do that and split the other 2 toss-ups, that gets to 8 wins.
USC
The over/under for wins for USC is 7.5.
- Missouri State: 97%, Win
- Georgia Southern: 93%, Win
- At Purdue: 88%, Win
- Michigan State: 85%, Win
- At Illinois: 59%, Toss-up
- Michigan: 54%, Toss-up
- At Notre Dame: 24%, Loss
- At Nebraska: 60%, Win
- Northwestern: 87%, Win
- Iowa: 68%, Win
- At Oregon: 28%, Loss
- UCLA: 77%, Win
That’s 8 wins, 2 losses, and 2 toss-ups. The likely range is between 8 and 10 wins. Assuming that they split the ‘toss-up’ games, that is a 9-3 record. Even if they lose the ‘toss-ups’, they still exceed the over/under of 7.5.
UCLA
The over/under for wins for UCLA is 5.5.
- Utah: 46%, Toss-up
- At UNLV: 51%, Toss-up
- New Mexico: 92%, Win
- At Northwestern: 58%, Toss-up
- Penn State: 14%, Loss
- At Michigan State: 51%, Toss-up
- Maryland: 66%, Win
- At Indiana: 24%, Loss
- Nebraska: 48%, Toss-up
- At Ohio State: 5%, Loss
- Washington: 46%, Toss-up
- At USC: 23%, Loss
That’s 2 wins, 4 losses, and 6 toss-ups. The likely range is between 2 and 8 wins. Assuming that they split the ‘toss-up’ games, that is a 5-7 record. UCLA just needs to win 4 of the 6 ‘toss-up’ games to exceed the over/under of 5.5 wins.
Rutgers
The over/under for wins for Rutgers is 5.5.
- Ohio: 81%, Win
- Miami (Ohio): 84%, Win
- Norfolk State: 99%, Win
- Iowa: 43%, Toss-up
- At Minnesota: 38%, Loss
- At Washington: 34%, Loss
- Oregon: 23%, Loss
- At Purdue: 76%, Win
- At Illinois: 37%, Loss
- Maryland: 66%, Win
- At Ohio State: 7%, Loss
- Penn State: 14%, Loss
That’s 5 wins, 6 losses, and 1 toss-up. The likely range is between 5 and 6 wins. Note that 3 of the ‘losses’ are close to ‘toss-ups’, so getting an upset win from one of those games seems possible; if so, 6 wins seems likely.
Purdue
The over/under for wins for Purdue is 2.5.
- Ball State: 79%, Win
- Southern Illinois: 84%, Win
- USC: 12%, Loss
- At Notre Dame: 3%, Loss
- Illinois: 20%, Loss
- At Minnesota: 12%, Loss
- At Northwestern: 29%, Loss
- Rutgers: 24%, Loss
- At Michigan: 4%, Loss
- Ohio State: 3%, Loss
- At Washington: 11%, Loss
- Indiana: 13%, Loss
That’s 2 wins and 10 losses. Maybe the Boilermakers surprise someone like Northwestern or Rutgers, but it is hard to see any wins after their first two (non-conference) games.
Penn State
The over/under for wins for Penn State is 10.5.
- Nevada: 99%, Win
- FIU: 99%, Win
- Villanova: 99%, Win
- Oregon: 70%, Win
- At UCLA: 86%, Win
- Northwestern: 96%, Win
- At Iowa: 76%, Win
- At Ohio State: 35%, Loss
- Indiana: 82%, Win
- At Michigan State: 90%, Win
- Nebraska: 88%, Win
- At Rutgers: 86%, Win
That’s 11 wins and 1 loss. Oregon and Iowa are the two wins with the lowest win percentage. Maybe they drop one of those, but 11 wins looks like the most likely outcome.
Oregon
The over/under for wins for Oregon is 10.5.
- Montana State: 96%, Win
- Oklahoma State: 91%, Win
- At Northwestern: 88%, Win
- Oregon State: 95%, Win
- At Penn State: 30%, Loss
- Indiana: 77%, Win
- At Rutgers: 77%, Win
- Wisconsin: 86%, Win
- At Iowa: 67%, Win
- Minnesota: 84%, Win
- USC: 72%, Win
- At Washington: 72%, Win
That’s 11 wins and 1 loss. But, there are quite a few of those wins that are not as dominant as you might expect. It would not be surprising to see Oregon drop one or two of those.
Ohio State
The over/under for wins for Ohio State is 10.5.
- Texas: 61%, Win
- Grambling: 99%, Win
- Ohio: 98%, Win
- At Washington: 83%, Win
- Minnesota: 93%, Win
- At Illinois: 85%, Win
- At Wisconsin: 87%, Win
- Penn State: 65%, Win
- At Purdue: 97%, Win
- UCLA: 95%, Win
- Rutgers: 93%, Win
- At Michigan: 68%, Win
That’s 12 wins and no losses. But there are three games where the win percentage is only a little over the ‘toss-up’ range. Losing one of those seems very possible, and it shouldn’t be a surprise if the Buckeyes lose 2 of those three.
Northwestern
The over/under for wins for Northwestern is 3.5.
- At Tulane: 30%, Loss
- Western Illinois: 98%, Win
- Oregon: 12%, Loss
- UCLA: 42%, Toss-up
- UL Monroe: 84%, Win
- At Penn State: 4%, Loss
- Purdue: 71%, Win
- At Nebraska: 20%, Loss
- At USC: 13%, Loss
- Michigan: 12%, Loss
- Minnesota: 32%, Loss
- At Illinois: 22%, Loss
That’s 3 wins, 8 losses, and 1 toss-up. The likely range is between 3 and 4 wins. There is one ‘win’ (Purdue) and one ‘loss’ (Tulane) that are close to the range for a ‘toss-up’ so it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise if Northwestern wins only 2 or as many as 5 games.
Nebraska
The over/under for wins for Nebraska is 6.5.
- Cincinnati (Neutral Site): 63%, Win
- Akron: 98%, Win
- Houston Christian: 99%, Win
- Michigan: 33%, Loss
- Michigan State: 75%, Win
- At Maryland: 62%, Win
- At Minnesota: 45%, Toss-up
- Northwestern: 80%, Win
- USC: 40%, Toss-up
- At UCLA: 52%, Toss-up
- At Penn State: 12%, Loss
- Iowa: 51%, Toss-up
That’s 6 wins, 2 losses, and 4 toss-ups. The likely range is between 6 and 10 wins. Two of the ‘wins’ are close to the range for a ‘toss-up’ (Cincinnati and Maryland), so the lower end of that range seems more likely, but getting to 7 wins seems likely. Note that October 11 is when Nebraska plays its first true road game.
Minnesota
The over/under for wins for Minnesota is 7.5.
- Buffalo: 93%, Win
- Northwestern State: 99%, Win
- At California: 64%, Win
- Rutgers: 65%, Win
- At Ohio State: 7%, Loss
- Purdue: 88%, Win
- Nebraska: 55%, Toss-up
- At Iowa: 35%, Loss
- Michigan State: 72%, Win
- At Oregon: 16%, Loss
- At Northwestern: 68%, Win
- Wisconsin: 58%, Toss-up
That’s 7 wins, 3 losses, and 2 toss-ups. The likely range is between 7 and 9 wins. Minnesota is the slight favorite in both ‘toss-up’ games, so winning at least one of those two to get to 8 wins seems likely.
Michigan State
The over/under for wins for Michigan State is 5.5.
- Western Michigan: 86%, Win
- Boston College: 52%, Toss-up
- Youngstown State: 96%, Win
- At USC: 15%, Loss
- At Nebraska: 25%, Loss
- UCLA: 49%, Toss-up
- At Indiana: 19%, Loss
- Michigan: 17%, Loss
- At Minnesota: 28%, Loss
- Penn State: 10%, Loss
- At Iowa: 20%, Loss
- Maryland: 53%, Toss-up
That’s 2 wins, 7 losses, and 3 toss-ups. The likely range is between 2 and 5 wins. It would likely take winning most (if not all) of those ‘toss-ups’, plus an upset (or two) get get over the 5.5 wins.
Michigan
The over/under for wins for Michigan is 8.5.
- New Mexico: 99%, Win
- At Oklahoma: 52%, Toss-up
- Central Michigan: 98%, Win
- At Nebraska: 67%, Win
- Wisconsin: 80%, Win
- At USC: 46%, Toss-up
- Washington: 79%, Win
- At Michigan State: 83%, Win
- Purdue: 96%, Win
- At Northwestern: 88%, Win
- At Maryland: 82%, Win
- Ohio State: 32%, Loss
That’s 9 wins, 1 loss, and 2 toss-ups. The likely range is between 9 and 11 wins. So, it would take at least one upset for Michigan to be under 9 wins.
Maryland
The over/under for wins for Maryland is 4.5.
- Florida Atlantic: 81%, Win
- Northern Illinois: 84%, Win
- Towson: 97%, Win
- At Wisconsin: 29%, Loss
- Washington: 47%, Toss-up
- Nebraska: 57%, Toss-up
- At UCLA: 34%, Loss
- Indiana: 34%, Loss
- At Rutgers: 34%, Loss
- At Illinois: 25%, Loss
- Michigan: 20%, Loss
- At Michigan State: 47%, Toss-up
That’s 3 wins, 6 losses, and 3 toss-ups. The likely range is between 3 and 6 wins. Three of the ‘losses’ are at 34%, so it shouldn’t surprise if Maryland won one of those. If so Maryland has a decent chance to get to 5 or even 6 wins.
Iowa
The over/under for wins for Iowa is 7.5.
- University of Albany: 99%, Win
- At Iowa State: 42%, Toss-up
- Massachusetts: 97%, Win
- At Rutgers: 57%, Toss-up
- Indiana: 51%, Toss-up
- At Wisconsin: 55%, Toss-up
- Penn State: 25%, Loss
- Minnesota: 63%, Win
- Oregon: 33%, Loss
- At USC: 32%, Loss
- Michigan State: 81%, Win
- At Nebraska: 49%, Toss-up
That’s 4 wins, 3 losses, and 5 toss-ups. The likely range is between 4 and 9 wins. Four of Iowa’s 5 ‘toss-up’ games are road games, so their final record will depend on how well they play on the road.
Indiana
The over/under for wins for Indiana is 8.5.
- Old Dominion: 91%, Win
- Kennesaw State: 98%, Win
- Indiana State: 99%, Win
- Illinois: 69%, Win
- At Iowa: 47%, Toss-up
- At Oregon: 23%, Loss
- Michigan State: 82%, Win
- UCLA: 77%, Win
- At Maryland: 69%, Win
- At Penn State: 18%, Loss
- Wisconsin: 69%, Win
- At Purdue: 87%, Win
That’s 9 wins, 2 losses, and 1 toss-up. The likely range is between 9 and 10 wins. However, 3 of the 9 ‘wins’ are just over the ‘toss-up’ threshold, so losing at least one of those is very possible.
Illinois
The over/under for wins for Illinois is 7.5.
- Western Illinois: 99%, Win
- At Duke: 54%, Toss-up
- Western Michigan: 92%, Win
- At Indiana: 33%, Loss
- USC: 40%, Toss-up
- At Purdue: 80%, Win
- Ohio State: 14%, Loss
- At Washington: 42%, Toss-up
- Rutgers: 61%, Win
- Maryland: 72%, Win
- At Wisconsin: 46%, Toss-up
- Northwestern: 77%, Win
That’s 6 wins, 2 losses, and 4 toss-ups. The likely range is between 6 and 10 wins. One of their ‘wins’ (Rutgers) is just barely above a ‘toss-up’, and the Illini is the underdog in 3 of their 4 ‘toss-up’ games. So it shouldn’t be a surprise if Illinois ends up closer to the 6 win total than the 10 wins.
Summary
If you believe the current projections, the top 5 teams are all expected to exceed their over/under for wins. Minnesota, Nebraska, and USC are three more teams that could easily exceed their over/under. Michigan State and Purdue are the two Big Ten teams that look like they’ll have fewer wins than their over/under. Of course, since most of the games are against other Big Ten teams, if some teams exceed then other teams could under-achieve.
This is all based on what is known (or that people think that they know) now. And every year there are upsets-games that are won by teams that were projected to have little chance of winning. Which of the underdogs listed in the poll below do you think have the best chance of pulling the upset? (Note that the UW games were intentionally left out.)
