The Aztecs are dominating on defense. This season is showing that a good defense can put up victories in the win column.
3-1 heading into conference play is slightly better than predicted, but the how is getting
people talking.
AztecFast is applied to the entire team, not just the offense.
GAME INFO:
Location: SnapDragon Stadium, San Diego, California
Date/Time: Friday, October 3, 7:30 (Pacific Time)
Television: CBS Sports Network
Streaming:
Radio: San Diego Sports 760
Betting Line: The Aztecs are a 5.5 favorite. The momentum continues to build after a smothering 6-3 win over Northern Illinois. The Over/Under is 39.5, reflecting the likelihood of another strong defensive performance. The score indication is favoring a 22-17 Aztec victory. The ESPN analytics are predicting a 71.6% chance of an outright Aztec victory. San Diego State and Colorado State have played each other 37 ties with the Aztecs holding a 22-15 all-time edge. The last matchup was in 2023 when the Rams held off a frantic Aztec comeback, winning 22-19 in Fort Collins. The first matchup between the teams was in 1978, a 34-31 Aztec victory. The last time the teams played in San Diego was in 2020, a 29-17 Aztec win. Both of these teams are slated to move into the new Pac-12 Conference next season to continue their rivalry.
THE OPPOSITION: Colorado State Rams
The Aztecs are ready to enter Mountain West Conference play as they host the Colorado State Rams for a Friday evening affair. The Rams visit the Mesa sporting a 1-3 record. This game will be the first conference game for both teams. The Rams are winless on the road (0-1) and average 15 points a game while giving up 23. This sets up well for the Aztecs as they are facing an opponent who struggles on offense and is looking for an identity, much like the Aztecs were prior to their game against California. Coach Jay Norvell came to Colorado after the 2021 season from Nevada with high expectations. He is 17-24 while in his fourth season and many of the Ram faithful arelosing patience. Many hoped the Rams would break out with a 3-1 mark heading into conference play. Expectations were that they would be a conference contender, with a bowl invite as a given. Last season the Rams were 8-5 and 6-1 overall in the conference and an appearance in the Arizona Bowl, where they lost in a 43-17 blowout to Miami (Ohio). All roads to success go through the quarterback position and returning starter Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi. The 6’2” junior from Aledo Texas is 44/82 passing for 488 yards and a 53.7% completion ratio with one touchdown and five interceptions. Of note, is his backup, Jackson Brousseau, has been more effective, going 29/40 for 266 yards and a score. Both quarterbacks have been sacked a total of nine times. This is a weakness with the Rams who face challenges along the offensive line. The Rams have a three headed running attack with returner Justin Marshall (13 carries, 69 yards), Jalen Dupree (53 carries, 267 yards) and Tulsa transfer Lloyd Avant (30 carries, 209 yards). Avant was highly touted and sports a decent 7 yard average. Marshall ran for 746 yards last season with four scores, but has been a bit slow out of the gate this season. As always, the Rams have an outstanding playmaking wide receiver in returner Armani Winfield, a 6’2” junior from Lewisville, Texas. He has accounted for 11 receptions and 156 yards. He is complemented by Tommy Maher who has 14 catches for 131 yards. The Rams have only accounted for two throwing scores this year so far. Expect the game plan to open up and provide opportunities for the air game to ignite. The Rams are fortunate they have a strong tandem of tight ends in Jaxxon Warren and Rocky Beers. Warren, who towers over defenders at 6’8”, has 7 grabs for a 13.6 yard average and one score. Traditionally a run heavy offense with the occasional deep threat, Colorado State is working to develop the right game plans that will flip the losing script. On defense, the team leaders reside in the linebacking and secondary groups. Owen Long, Jacob Ellis and JaQues Evans are all topping the stat chart of tackles, while Lemondre Joe and Jake Jarmolowich key the secondary efforts. Of concern is the tackles being made by the secondary. This suggests opponents runners are through the first or second lines of defense before being brought down. The Rams will need to short up the defensive line if they are to gain the advantage in the trenches. After tying for second place last season with UNLV, high expectations were floated about in Fort Collins. The goal has been to reach the championship game. The road travels through a surprising San Diego State squad as well as the other top three conference contenders in Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State. They host Fresno State, Hawaii, UNLV and Air Force. They will need to win three of those while stealing two wins against the Aztecs, Wyoming, New Mexico or Boise State to be bowl eligible. They avoid San Jose State, Nevada and Utah State. A taste of the Wolfpack might have done well for the Rams, but in their last year in the Mountain West, it will be all that they can do to go out on a winning note.
Aztecs defense among the nation’s best in multiple categories.
The Aztecs and Coach Sean Lewis can take some credit for their defensive improvement over last season. There were many vacancies that needed to be filled and outside of a snafu with Washington State, the Aztecs are headed on the right track. Last year they saw themselves ranked 114th in total defense and 97th in scoring defense. The run defense was especially susceptible to disaster ranking 109 in opponent yards per rush and 124 in opponent rushing yards per game. This season so far they are only giving up an average of 12 points per game including two shutouts. The defense is averaging 3.84 yards per play and are ranked 6th in the country in total defense/passing yards allowed. They are also strong in third-down defense. Granted, opponents are not the rage of the country, but wins over Northern Illinois and California are nothing to turn a blind eye to. A better performance against the afore-mentioned Washington State might give a better indicator of how well the Aztecs are. Owen Chambliss leads the team with a strong 36 total tackle performance including two sacks. Chris Johnson has two interceptions including a pick six and Dwayne McDougle has a fumble returned for a score. The Aztecs are flying high on defensive momentum at this time. The offense will need to find their way soon, as they enter Mountain West play. Jayden Denegal has shown the potential that he can lead the Aztecs offense. Lucky Sutton and Jordan Napier provide the much needed and anticipated spark the offense needs to keep the AztecFast offensive moving. Can they maintain and build upon this momentum. They showed they were able to win again after a large victory. Being overconfident doesn’t seem to be an issue.
What will be the outcome of the game?
On paper, it looks like it is the Aztecs game to lose. Early indicators show the Aztecs should be close to a touchdown favorite. They seem to be playing with a chip on their shoulder as many in the sports media didn’t give the Aztecs much room for success this season. This writer was already looking ahead to next season. Hold your horses Nellie! 2025 is not over and the Aztecs look to have something to prove. Until proven otherwise, I expect the Aztec defense to continue to dominate, even while the offense looks to find their identity. Control the penalties and remove turnover and the Aztecs should have a victory. I expect a slow start as per usual but then the Aztecs will control the field position game and should come away with a 24-13 win on Friday night. Of concern has been the fans and the local support. There should be no reason not to have a loud and full Snapdragon Stadium for the game against the Rams.
Around the Mountain West Conference
The conference continues to morph itself into being a bit better from top to bottom than was previously projected. Fresno State, Boise State and Utah State all have one conference win against no defeats. Hawaii is following up with a 1-1 conference record. New Mexico and San Diego State are both at 3-1 on the season heading into conference play. Wyoming is at 2-2 and has a tough game to open conference play hosting UNLV. A win and they are on the right track. Colorado State, Nevada San Jose State and Air Force are all 1-3 to start. The Spartans are disappointing with two close losses that should have been wins. Will they be able to rebound from a last second loss to Stanford. If so, they look like they can turn the corner as they host New Mexico this Friday in an exciting game with lots of potential for big plays. Air Force is really solidifying their hold in the basement, being 0-3 in conference play. They play several non-conference games mid season against Navy this weekend and Army in November. Fresno State hosts Nevada and looks to jump to the top of the conference with a convincing win. Of large interest is Boise State taking on Notre Dame in South Bend. If the Broncos can pull off the upset (they are 19.5 point underdogs), not only will it be one of the biggest of the season, but they will probably build on their momentum and find a way to take the conference. I’m not sure Boise can overcome the Irish, but it should be closer than the betting line says. Another weekend of Mountain West Conference football and still more stories to tell. Who’s going to be first? The list can grow long. We can be pretty sure knowing who’s going to be last. It looks like a battle of the Wolfpack and Falcons for the conference cellar. Finally, we will see if an individual rises to the top of the pack. Despite the Spartans loss, quarterback Walker Eget is rising to the top of pack with his 1,187 yards passing on 94 completions on 164 attempts. His bevy of receivers compliment the pass heavy offense. UNLV quarterback Anthony Colandrea is not that far behind with 940 yards, 8 touchdowns and a lights out 72.2% completion percentage. Who else will rise to the top? Let the balls fly!
The Aztecs are dominating on defense. This season is showing that a good defense can put up victories in the win column.
3-1 heading into conference play is slightly better than predicted, but the how is getting people talking.
AztecFast is applied to the entire team, not just the offense.
GAME INFO:
Location: SnapDragon Stadium, San Diego, California
Date/Time: Friday, October 3, 7:30 (Pacific Time)
Television: CBS Sports Network
Streaming:
Radio: San Diego Sports 760
