Yesterday’s third period and overtime was a thrilling one for the Pittsburgh Penguins. The swing from the regulation loss that seemed to be developing as Boston went up 3-0 early in the game would have put the Pens with a 76.2% chance for the playoffs, according to Moneypuck’s modeling. Instead, the comeback win boost Pittsburgh’s odds of a playoff berth up in that model’s eyes to 86.9% as a result of that action. That’s a huge swing for early March and gives a taste of how great meaningful hockey
can be this time of the year.
Here’s what some other models say for the Penguins as of today, while noting Moneypuck has adjusted the Pens’ odds down to 81.2% as of this morning after the other games from yesterday were completed.
Hockey-Reference: 85.3%
The Athletic: 69.0%
Stathletes: 57.9%
Here’s the standings as of today as the season makes the turn to all teams having 20 or fewer games remaining.
Columbus and Ottawa has experienced the classic catch up burst often seen by non-playoff teams to stay within shouting distance of the others, however it can be hard to make a lot of progress. Columbus was five points back of Pittsburgh when the teams returned from the Olympic break in late-February, today on March 9th CBJ remains the same five points behind the Pens (although CBJ has picked up a game in hand).
Ticking off more games without making any headway becomes a bigger and bigger issue as the games remaining evaporate. Last year the Blue Jackets were in this same position in chase mode, missing the playoffs by two points. A similar story could be developing again this year as the Jackets try to hunt down one of the Islanders or Penguins (as well as the fifth place Atlantic Division team, currently Boston).
Overall, and somewhat shockingly, we can probably close the book for good and officially on the playoff hopes for all of Toronto, Florida, New Jersey and Washington as the trade deadline passes. All four of those teams were tucked away safely within their respective top-3 divisional seed last year for a playoff berth. This year, it wasn’t to be for any of them. That opens the door for a lot of new teams to rise in their places. That looks like Buffalo, Detroit will certainly be taking advantage of that on the Atlantic side. It can be hard to remember since the Islanders tend to be annoyingly always in the picture, but they weren’t in the playoffs last year either. The Penguins haven’t been in a few years. Some of the prior mainstays heading for short seasons has opened the door for fresh blood in the playoff this spring.
Can the Penguins be one of them? Obviously the final answer is dependent on what happens in the last 19 games of the season. In the most simplistic terms, staying ahead of one of NYI or CBJ should be enough to get Pittsburgh back into the postseason for the first time since 2022. Even if both were to pass the Pens, it’s possible (though perhaps not likely) that Pittsburgh could earn a Wild Card by staying ahead of Boston and Ottawa. We’d call it unlikely, due to the common sense factor that it will be difficult to stay ahead of both BOS+OTT in a scenario where the Penguins also get surpassed by both NYI+CBJ, that becomes a difficult and unlikely proposition at this point, but still one that is technically possible.
Here’s what each team has on tap, and what to look out for. If you’re a Pens’ fan this week, you also will become a temporary supporter of the Los Angeles Kings this week, funny enough. The Kings have their own reasons to want to have a good week as they look to make a push back into a playoff spot in the West, if they are able to find a couple of regulation wins this week it would also prove to be beneficial to the Penguins.
NY Islanders: Finish up their Western trip (currently 1-2-0 on in it) with a game in St. Louis on Wednesday. Return home to play the LA Kings (LA defeated NYI 5-3 last week in California) and then a game against Calgary…On paper, not a very tough schedule with two teams (STL, CGY) who are non-factors. But the travel elements and the back-to-back make it a little more difficult than it might appear.
Columbus: Host LA Kings today, quick turnaround to play @TB tomorrow, stay on the road for a game @FLA on Thursday and @Philadelphia on Saturday…Currently 3/4 of those teams are not in the playoffs, though LA will be desperate to make progress to get back in it. Tough scheduling for that game tomorrow doesn’t do many favors for Columbus, though they should be setup to rebound for that with what looks like winnable games towards the end of the week
Pittsburgh: As mentioned, a road trip to Carolina, Vegas and Utah this week. Vegas is only 2-5-0 since the return from Olympics and the Pens just whomped the Knights 5-0 last week in Pittsburgh. That might be the game to have circled as really needing to count on getting something out of. The other item for the Pens is when can Sidney Crosby return and how much of a boost in skill and energy will it give them? Both could be significant, though it might not happen this week.
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It’s setting up for a fun and fresh spring for the Penguins to race to the finish line. It feels like it’s been a while since Pittsburgh was so close to a playoff spot so late in the year, though that’s not so. The Pens entered the last week of the 2023-24 season and Game No. 80 in a playoff spot before fading away. That was spurred by a frantic comeback over the last 15 games, the difference this time around is that Pittsburgh has long been in a playoff spot this season instead of in a desperation chase mode from the outside.
This Pens team does seem to have a different energy, spirit and pride about themselves that hasn’t been around in too much force the past few years. As of now it has them in a great position to return to the playoffs, but they will be put to the test and made to earn it with this last month+ of the season.
