Every year, MLB Trade Rumors publishes a list of salary arbitration projections based on an internal model. Thankfully, salary arbitration isn’t something Red Sox fans need to get too worked up about.
For as much as Sox fans complain about the Fenway Sports Group’s obsession with cost efficiency, I can’t think of a single instance when the Sox traded a player away because he got too expensive in arbitration, as some truly parsimonious teams make a habit of doing.
In fact, the Sox have only gone to arbitration a whopping three times in the last 23 years, getting there with Fernando Abad in 2017, Mookie Betts in 2018, and Eduardo Rodriguez in 2020. And this is a smart way of doing business, especially when you consider the bad feelings that the arbitration process can engender. After all, salary arbitration often involves teams and players quibbling over a couple million dollars at the absolute most (it was actually less than a million in the case of both the Abad and E-Rod). The Sox can easily dig up that amount of money by turning over a few couch cushions in Aura Pavilion.
Having said that, let’s take a look at who is eligible for arbitration heading into the 2026 season, and what MLB Trade Rumors projects each player could receive. And then let’s break them down according to how the Sox should proceed.
Just give the dude his money
Kutter Crawford: $2.75MM
Romy Gonzalez: $1.8MM
Triston Casas: $1.7MM
Brennan Bernardino: $1.1MM
Josh Winckowski: $800K
Every one of these guys can and will be expected to be a contributor on the 2026 Red Sox. Hell, one of them was one of the surprise stand-outs on the 2025 team, while another still has All-Star potential. (I’m obviously talking about Casas here, but Jake Roy would want me to give a shout-out to Kutter Crawford, too.) And while you’re probably not particularly excited about Winckowski and Bernardino, they are at least occasionally effective back-of-the-bullpen relievers getting paid peanuts. Just pay these guys their money and move on to other more important issues.
Consider trading, but not because of money
Jarren Duran: $8.4MM (Red Sox hold an $8MM club option with a $100K buyout)
All winter long last year I waited for the front office to trade someone from their surplus outfield corps. They never did, which resulted in losing two-and-a-half months of production out of Roman Anthony while he wasted away in AAA, and complicated the Alex Bregman/Rafael Devers/Masataka Yoshida roster fit. I do not want the Sox to make the same mistake again, especially when one of Duran, Wilyer Abreu, or Ceddanne Rafaela could be used to bring in another starting pitcher. It’s just too bad the Sox have already missed a chance to get something really big in return for Duran when he was coming off a career year.
Consider non-tendering
Nathaniel Lowe : $13.5MM
Tanner Houck: $3.95MM
Connor Wong: $1.6MM
With Triston Casas expected to begin the year healthy — along with the potential addition of someone like Pete Alonso — I don’t see any need for the Sox to hang on to Nathaniel Lowe.
Connor Wong, on the other hand, is probably someone we’ll see again in Fort Myers. He was bad, but he’s also a backup catcher and backup catchers are almost all bad as a rule. So while the Sox can and should try to upgrade there, it’s the the type of decision that’s going to make or break a season.
Houck is likely going to miss the entirety of the 2026 season and then will have only a single year of team control remaining when he hopefully returns to health in 2027. A lot of teams would non-tender him in that situation — after all, that’s how the Sox ended up with Patrick Sandoval. But the Red Sox absolutely should not do that. As we saw this year, pitching depth is vitally important. As we saw last year, Tanner Houck is an above average starter when healthy. And as we see every year, the Red Sox are a money-printing machine. Get him signed, get him healthy, and let’s see him again in 18 months.
