It’s hard to believe, considering how poorly the Orioles often played before the All-Star break, that they begin the second half still within shouting distance of a postseason spot. But the American League is, let’s face it, a giant mess. And so, as the O’s resume their 2026 schedule after their four-day break, they sit just two games back of the third wild card spot, currently held by the sub-.500 Mariners and Twins.
If the Orioles are going to make a real run at this, they’ll need to play well enough
not only to catch Seattle and Minnesota, but also to surpass the two other teams currently ahead of them. Fortunately, their second-half-opening road trip will pit the Birds against those two very opponents: the Astros and Red Sox. If the O’s can win both series, they’ll make progress in climbing their way up the wild card standings. If they lose both, well, they’re going to further bury themselves with the trade deadline just weeks away.
First up is Houston for a three-game weekend set at Daikin Park. If I can give the Orioles just one piece of advice for this series, it is this: DO NOT PITCH TO YORDAN ALVAREZ. The 29-year-old lefty slugger has single-handedly carried the Astros with an MVP-caliber offensive season, currently leading the league in hits (111), home runs (31), RBIs (70), OBP (.426), SLG (.633), OPS (1.059), OPS+ (193), and total bases (221). For most players, those would be outstanding totals for a full season. And Alvarez still has 64 games to go! He is ridiculous, and O’s pitchers shouldn’t give him anything to hit unless the game is a blowout.
The Astros’ offense aside from Alvarez is unintimidating. They’ve gotten decent contributions from corner infielders Isaac Paredes (12 HRs, .776 OPS) and former Oriole Christian Walker (20 HRs, .775 OPS), but their entire outfield has been dreadful. Two of their Opening Day outfielders, Jake Meyers and Joey Loperfido, have since been optioned to the minors. Rookie Brice Matthews has a .582 OPS in 82 games.
The biggest problem for Houston has been a disastrous starting rotation. The Astros’ 5.26 starters’ ERA is the third-worst in baseball, better only than the Athletics and Rockies. Their free agent signing from Japan, righty Tatsuya Imai, has a 6.06 ERA and has admitted he’s had trouble adjusting to MLB customs. Offseason trade acquisition Mike Burrows went 4-9 with a 5.99 ERA before landing on the IL with right elbow neuritis. Veteran Lance McCullers Jr., a two-time World Series champ with the Astros in 2017 and 2022, struggled to a 6.86 ERA and was just traded to the Brewers.
The Astros’ staff has gotten a boost of late, at least. Their ace, Hunter Brown, returned in June after missing two months with a right shoulder strain. The Astros have gone 14-10 since his return after posting a 33-41 record before that. And veteran closer (and Old Mill HS alum) Josh Hader, who was sidelined for two months by left biceps tendinitis, has stabilized the bullpen since returning in early June. He’s a perfect 10-for-10 in save opportunities, with 25 strikeouts and just two runs allowed in 15.1 innings. It would behoove the Orioles not to be trailing in the ninth inning.
The Astros are a worthy opponent but not the behemoth that they once were. This is a winnable series for the Orioles, but we’ve seen them fail to take advantage of winnable series before.
Game 1: Friday, 8:10 PM ET, MASN
RHP Dean Kremer (1-2, 4.09) vs. RHP Peter Lambert (8-5, 3.14)
It’s no surprise that Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros in WAR (4.3), but the guy in second place is a shocker: it’s Peter Lambert (2.4), a 29-year-old journeyman who entered this year with a career 6.28 ERA in four seasons. Lambert debuted in 2019 with the Rockies and was constantly either injured or ineffective, but after his decent 2025 showing with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball, the Astros took a chance on him that has paid off in spades. Even without overwhelming stuff, he’s done a good job of limiting contact (6.6 H/9) and has almost single-handedly kept the Astros’ rotation afloat. Lambert faced the Orioles in Baltimore in April and lasted just 4.1 innings, his shortest outing of the season.
For the Orioles, Kremer will be making just his fifth start of the year, and his third since returning from a right quad strain. One was successful (six innings, one run) and one not so much (five innings, four runs). He’s historically performed well against the Astros, with a perfect 4-0 record and 2.59 ERA in his career, but Alvarez has reached base against him in six of 10 PAs, and Jose Altuve is 9-for-20. Jeremy Pena is just 1-for-15.
Game 2: Saturday, 4:10 PM ET, MASN
LHP Trevor Rogers (6-7, 4.48) vs. RHP Spencer Arrighetti (7-5, 4.50)
Don’t look now, but Rogers has been pitching like vintage 2025 Trevor Rogers lately. Since the start of June, he has a 1.73 ERA in seven starts and hasn’t given up more than three runs in any outing. He’s slashed his season ERA from 6.96 to 4.48. An effective Trevor Rogers is integral to the Orioles’ hopes of contention, so let’s hope to see a lot more of this in the second half. Rogers hasn’t faced the Astros much, but their current hitters are just 6-for-35 (.171) against him. Three of those hits are by Pena.
Arrighetti, now in his third year, has basically been a league-average pitcher or a touch below, with a 94 ERA+ this season. Not great, not terrible, but you can usually count on him to compete. He’s basically the Dean Kremer of the Astros, complete with the luscious, flowing hair. Arrighetti has faced the Orioles twice in his career, holding them to two runs in 11.2 innings. Gunnar Henderson tagged him for a home run last season.
Game 3: Sunday, 2:10 PM ET, MASN
RHP Kyle Bradish (6-9, 3.61) vs. RHP Hunter Brown (1-0, 3.57)
Even though Bradish is tied for the MLB lead in losses with seven other pitchers (including teammate Shane Baz), don’t let that fool you — he’s been a quality performer for the Orioles in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. It’s almost as if win/loss record is not an accurate assessment of a pitcher’s abilities! Four of his last five outings have been quality starts, including a dazzling eight shutout innings against the Angels on June 22. And he has been impeccable against the Astros. In three starts spanning 22.2 innings, he has never allowed a run. Not one! It has been three years since he’s faced them, but let’s hope his dominance versus Houston continues this weekend.
Brown is coming off a stupendous 2025 season in which posted a 2.43 ERA and finished third in the AL Cy Young voting, but he hasn’t quite rounded into form yet in 2026. He’s made five starts since returning from his shoulder injury and hasn’t thrown more than six innings. (Last year he topped six innings eight times.) When he’s on, Brown has a dynamic five-pitch arsenal headlined by a hard four-seam fastball. That four-seamer held batters to a .178 average last year and just .143 this season, but his secondary pitches — curveball, changeup, and slider — haven’t been quite as effective. Brown last faced the Orioles in 2024, when he threw a quality start in a game the O’s eventually won on a dramatic Anthony Santander eighth-inning grand slam.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Will the O’s continue their momentum from the end of the first half, or will they return to the struggle bus? Let us know in the comments.
