Thanks in part to the 3rd wild card and mostly to the bizarre mediocrity of most of the teams in 2026, here we are 9 days before the trading deadline and only 8 of the 30 teams are not at least within 4 games of a wild card spot.
This is what happens when a team can lead the AL West with a record of 52-51 and playing .529 ball gets you sole possession of 1st place in the AL Central. In the National League even the 51-53 Padres sit just 4 games back of WC 3 in a league that has 3 “haves” (Dodgers,
Brewers, Braves) and a whole lot of meh.
Some Q’s and A’s around the upcoming flurry of activity, with a note that sadly the Q’s have a better shot at the post-season.
Q: Will There Be 22 “Buyers”?
A: No, there are 22 contenders still in theory, but now is when teams need to take a serious look at themselves and ask, “Do we really have a team that’s likely to beat out a crowded field?”
The reality is that for so many of these teams, not only might they have several teams to pass in the standings or several teams nipping at their heels, their actual record suggests their roster isn’t really all that.
What makes it murky for some teams is that they might be riding a hot streak or bouncing back from a woeful start, but do you mistake momentum or sustained improvement? Teams will have to make hard decisions and while most will probably want to push their chips closer to the middle of the table, some will take a “reality check” and step back.
Q: What domino effects might we see?
A: One that comes to mind is the crucial decision the Detroit Tigers have to make around Tarik Skubal. At the end of May, the Tigers sat at 22-38 and were 2 months away from at least cashing in big on Skubal’s value as a deadline rental. But Detroit has won 16 of its last 21 and suddenly sits just 3.5 back of a wild card spot and 5 games out of 1st place.
This comes with a series of caveats: The Tigers are still 4 games under .500, have 4 teams to pass in the wild card, 3 in the division. And they can’t reasonably to keep winning 75% of their games.
The domino effect comes with Skubal being on or off the market. If on the market the bidding war for him will be fierce but if the Tigers decide to keep Skubal in a quest to make the post-season and go deep into it, attention will turn to the perceived “2nd best SP” on the block and some of the next tier SPs will see their value rise. Those possible names include Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, and Robbie Ray.
Q: So Are There Going To Be Serious Discussions Around Shea Langeliers?
A: What’s known about Langeliers is that he is under contract control through 2028 and is regarded around the league as one of the best overall catchers in MLB, albeit with some known flaws.
The A’s public position is, “We have zero interest in trading Langeliers,” which is what they should say if they have zero interest and what they should say if they have lots of interest. Other teams’ stance is, “Well sure we would love to add Langeliers,” which is to say they have a catcher who isn’t as good and buyers tend to want to get better.
So what is reality behind the public smoke? Probably that the A’s aren’t keen to move Langeliers unless they are approached like they were last July by AJ Preller determined to pry away Mason Miller. He offered a deal “too good to pass up” and the A’s felt they had to say yes even though they had not intended to move Miller.
The truth, though, is that while most teams are trying to contend with a primary catcher providing less value there are not very many of them who are going to inquire, seriously, about adding a good catcher at the deadline. If you look at the teams most in need of an upgrade at catcher, they are probably more focused on Skubals and Holmeses and Peraltas and Rays than they are on Langeliers.
Now there are exceptions. The Red Sox (Patrick Sandoval, presumably by season’s end Garrett Crochet) and the Yankees (Max Fried and Gerrit Cole) recently got starting pitchers back and have deep enough rotations that they could prioritize adding a top notch catcher. The Rays also have pitching depth and the White Sox just lost their primary catcher, Kyle Teel, so they could pivot to catcher as a first priority.
The question is whether any of those teams match up well with the A’s — do they have the right controllable pitching/prospects and would they part with them — and would they overpay to make it worth the A’s while? Generally you don’t see controllable catchers moved at the deadline; it’s more of an off-season conversation as it was with Sean Murphy. So I’d bet against it.
Q: How Active Will The A’s Be?
A: Given the unlikelihood of any serious conversations around Langeliers, probably not nearly as active as you might want to see given how many holes have sprung up on the SS Athletico. The A’s don’t have the pitching buyers are seeking, they are not going to offer recently extended core pieces in Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson, and Lawrence Butler’s poor performance has put his contract squarely under water anyway.
A natural trade chip in Mark Leiter Jr. has been paused by a hip impingement that make take Leiter Jr. entirely off the market, same with Luis Severino’s sore shoulder. Carlos Cortes might have been intriguing to teams when he was hitting well over .300 with a sky high OBP, but lately he has been really into “bouncers to the right side” and his defensive limitations have been exposed greatly. His 5 for 47 June with one extra base hit probably cratered his value to where he won’t bring back much even as a two-way player (6 pitching appearances!).
Most likely to move might be Jonah Heim, the booby prize for teams not getting Langeliers. His right-handed bat has some value to teams looking to get something from their catcher and he is a rental. But Heim was acquired just a couple months ago for cash, and for all his penchant for dramatic hits his time with the A’s has yielded all of a .240/.285/.445 slash line with neutral defensive ratings.
Like it or not it’s probably going to be a “couple of minor deals” type of deadline for the A’s — unless you can think of a big deal you think David Forst and company might be pondering and discussing on the sly. Can you?
