I probably don’t need to tell you that the Green Bay Packers have a big game against the Philadelphia Eagles this Monday night. As I try to do every week, I took a look at how the Packers could attack this Eagles defense. I tend to start with numbers, then watch some film after that. I try to watch at least the two previous games from the Packers’ opponent, then use numbers for a more targeted approach. So let’s get to it.
Just from looking at the numbers, the Eagles’ defense has been pretty middle-of-the-road
this season. FTN’s DVOA – a metric that accounts for strength of opponent faced – has the Eagles as the 16th-best defense in the league this year. They’re 15th against the pass and 25th against the run, which is a little shocking given some of the dudes they have up front. (Last season, they were the best defense in the league per DVOA.)
NFL Pro tells the same sort of story, so I don’t really need to list them all here. I will, however, dig into a couple of numbers from NFL Pro. In looking at the Matchup Comparison, the biggest advantage the Packers have on offense is their play-action game. On the season, the Packers have the 5th-ranked play-action offense, while the Eagles have the 30th-ranked play-action defense (Eagles defense is allowing +0.28 EPA Per Play on play action snaps). On pure dropback snaps, the Eagles are the 8th best passing defense (-0.22 EPA Per Play).
On the season, the Packers are using play action on 29.1% of their pass attempts, the 5th highest rate in the league. Against the Panthers this past weekend, the Packers only used play action on 18.4% of their dropbacks, their lowest rate of the season. The reason for that may be due to the Panthers’ defense being the 4th best defense in the league against play action this season (-0.12 EPA Per Play). On the season, the Packers’ two highest play-action rates came against the Bengals (40.6%) and the Commanders (38.2%). Both those teams are in the bottom third of the league against play action on the season. Given the Eagles’ weakness, I would anticipate a relatively high play-action rate this week.
However, it’s not all play action. The Eagles’ defense has shown themselves to be capable against the vertical play action game (off run concepts like Inside Zone/Duo). Where they’ve had issues is with the horizontal play-action game.
That play-action approach would pair well with a more gap-scheme oriented run game, which the Packers started leaning into more last week. Even if the runs in the pulling run game can be downhill, the horizontal motion of the pullers can get the linebackers widening horizontally or pulled up to the line more than they are off inside zone/Duo.
While we’re talking about the running game, we can talk about using the RB in the passing game. While the Eagles are the best team in the league against tight ends, they’re 27th in the league at defending running backs as receivers (per DVOA). They’re also the 3rd worst team in the league at allowing Yards After Catch Over Expecation (YACOE) at +178. Losing Tucker Kraft will hurt them in the YAC game, but Josh Jacobs is 10th in the league at YACOE (+72), so getting him in space (either by play design or late checkdown) would be a good way to pick up some yards.
If we’re talking about personnel usage, this feels like a game where the Packers should use 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) as much as they can. The Eagles will put an extra linebacker on the field against 12 personnel to start, but, if you can’t run out of that package, they’ll just defend it out of Nickel. Right now, the Packers aren’t good enough running out of 12 to justify basing an attack out of it; certainly not good enough to force the Eagles to match heavy-with-heavy. On the season, they’re averaging 3.7 yards per carry out of 12 personnel, and that’s when they had Tucker Kraft.
Honestly, if they want to roll out a package with 6 offensive linemen, this may be the week to try it. Get Anthony Belton on the outside to mash, try to create movement in the run game and try to get Christian Watson on at least one big play action shot out of that look. They only showed 1 snap of 6 offensive linemen in 2024 and they haven’t shown it at all this season, so I’m not even sure if it’s something they’re considering. But, against this defense, it’s certainly something I’d be looking to roll out.
Two final things. The Eagles have given up quite a few explosives against an insert blocker releasing vertically through the line. The Packers have that in their playbook, so absolutely use that.
Their linebackers declare coverage pretty early. If they fall into spot-drop zone, you can work behind them. If they run to run immediately, you may want to look for an escape hatch for a QB scramble. They’ve given up some big plays on QB scrambles this year. On the season, the Eagles are 31st against QB scrambles (per NFL Pro).
In short, if I’m building a game plan for attacking the Eagles, this is the skeleton of my plan:
- Heavy gap-scheme based run attack out of split-gun.
- Lots of horizontal play action, with crossers behind/between the linebackers.
- Involve the RBs in the passing game.
- Base the offense out of 11 personnel. If you want to go heavy, use 12 personnel sparingly and look to include a 6th offensive lineman.
- Be patient. Take the underneath throws when they’re there. If you can get a crosser open on play action, the safeties will take the occasional bad angle so you can generate explosives in the pass game that way.
I may work on something for Monday in terms of generating explosives or an attack plan in the red zone. We’ll see how that goes.
Albums listened to: Danny Brown – Stardust; The Mountain Goats – Through This Fire Across from Peter Balkan; Portugal. The Man – SHISH
