This cursed season is finally over. Perhaps the one that hurt the most because of how it started, and how certain I was at 7-1 that this was the season it was going to be different. We can keep talking about that first 8 weeks and how perfect everything was back then, but there is no point in that, now we can take a look at what the Colts did during the entirety of the year, and how the team looks for the future. This is supposed to be a hot analysis, taking advantage that the feelings of the season are
still on Colts’ fans skins, and is also made before all the off-season moves, even though technically the first (and most important) move was retaining both general manager Chris Ballard and head-coach Shane Steichen for another year.
Let’s kick things off discussing that very move. Last year I was already on team “Fire CB & SS”, and once this season ended I thought it was going to be done, given how the Colts finished the season on an eight game losing streak. Instead, new owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon went the same route her father did and gave them another year. This is going to be Chris Ballard’s 10th offseason with the team. TEN. That is a double-digit number! For a general manager that has consistently missed on the two most important positions on the football field: quarterback and pass-rusher. This roster has not improved consistently year over year. He keeps repeating mistakes. He has not won a single division title! When was the last time a general manager got so much time and opportunities despite not winning a single thing? There is absolutely no accountability. One might argue that after trading away their first round picks for the next two years it just made sense to run it back one more season with this leadership, and I understand that point, it is just that when you set a standard that you can tolerate complete mediocrity for 10 years, it reflects on your entire organization. There is no need to push yourself to be great when everyone gets just so much slack. It shows on the football team that steps up on the field every Sunday. The only players that show some heart are the ones that still need to prove themselves for that second contract (Daniel Jones, Alec Pierce, Laiatu Latu), Grover Stewart, and Quenton Nelson. The 1-tech and the left guard. I mean, this team gave Zaire Franklin a captain patch. A terrible linebacker that could not cover a tight end even if the tight end had both his legs tied up together. A player that cannot help himself from talking, and talking, and never backing things up. A player that antagonized the franchise most recognizable current media voice.
As for Steichen, he had his ups. He was really close to making the playoffs with Gardner Minshew in his first year, he was really close to making an improbable run before JT dropped the ball at the one-yard line the season after that, and he was really close this season before Daniel Jones injured his Achilles. My question is: what sample size is large enough before “Really close” becomes “You are just a bad leader that cannot get his teams to finish”? Through three years as the Colts’ head-coach, Steichen has a 25-26 record, and an absurd 8-24 record against teams that finished the season above .500.
Going over the offense, and most important of it all, the quarterback situation. I honestly have no idea what the team should do with AR. I believe that he is a young player with tons of potential that really needs a fresh start someplace else in order to blossom, but will the team trade him at his lowest, running the danger of him erupting elsewhere and making them look even worse? Daniel Jones was really good for the first 8 weeks, but the wheels started falling off before the injuries. The Steelers figured out the Colts’ offense and laid out the blueprint for how to stop them. Oh, and the injury concerns are a real issue with him, now adding a torn Achilles to the mix. Riley Leonard looked really good against a tough Texans’ defense for two quarters, but is that really enough for the Colts to trust him?
Jonathan Taylor came crashing down to Earth once opposing defenses did not need to worry about the passing game, which is understandable and not JT’s fault. Just by looking at the games it was obvious that over the final eight games Taylor was dancing, not running, behind the line of scrimmage. No matter how talented you are, if you have two guys trying to tackle you as soon as you get the football, you are not going to produce much.
The receiver and tight end group is in a better state, though the Colts will have some tough questions to ask with Michael Pittman Jr., and his massive cap hit next season. Pittman even acknowledged that himself. He is being paid like a true No. 1 receiver, yet has no games where he stepped up and took control of the offense. He is a good player, just nowhere close worth that kind of money. Alec Pierce is a free agent, and he was really productive this season, but how much is he worth is up in the air. Josh Downs is a good slot receiver that has a knack for keeping the chains moving. A great luxury to have, but not particularly a player that will keep opposing defenses on their toes. The only young player the Colts have with potential under contract is tight end Tyler Warren, who is a darn good football player and most likely the team’s starting tight end for the next decade.
The offensive line is okay. Bortolini and Goncalves should continue improving, Quenton Nelson still plays at an All-Pro level, and Bernhard Raimann was above-average. The only question is what to do with Braden Smith and the right tackle position. Jalen Travis looked decent in limited playing time, but there is no telling whether he will be the long term answer.
On the defensive side of the ball things do not get any better for this team. Again, the most important position here is edge rusher (albeit less important than quarterback). Laitu Latu played much better this season, especially taking into account the fact that the edge-rusher playing opposite him was a complete waste of space this season. Kwity Paye, I do not understand what sort of blackmail you have on the Colts to keep playing so many snaps despite generating no pressure and not stopping the run. DeForest Buckner missed plenty of time dealing with complicated injuries that could end his career, and Grover Stewart is not getting any younger. Adetomiwa Adebawore was a pleasant surprise this season, but nothing spectacular to give the Colts much hope in him becoming a starter.
When a player you manage to sign off the street after five games starts off right away and ends up playing much better than your team captain, eight year player, then there is a problem. I have made the case for Zaire Franklin to be cut last year, and I am still pounding that table. Leadership issues asside, Zaire is just not a good football player in today’s NFL. The only positive he contributes is some delayed blitzes where he can get a free look at the quarterback, but other than that he is a liability in pass-coverage that teams love to target, especially on third down, and not great against the run, ranking outside the top 30 in stops, and with a 10.7% missed tackle rate. (Zaire said last season that the high missed tackle numbers were because he all his tackling attempts. I am using a percentage here. Using percentages normalizes the effect of a high sample size).
Now finally we reach the secondary, the Colts crown jewel. The place where they invested the most, both in money and in resources. Charvarius Ward is an amazing football player, and I see the vision there. Problem is he had three concussions, including a severe one where he collided with backup tight end Drew Ogletree in warmups. Sauce Gardner luckily avoided a torn Achilles, but played just two games in a Colts’ uniform because of a calf strain. Kenny Moore is okay, age is starting to get to him and he does not have the same explosiveness he used to have, that allowed him to compensate for his size. Camryn Bynum and Nick Cross were a solid safety duo, and I liked what the Colts were doing with Cross putting him closer to the box.
This is a harder schedule than what the Colts had this season. Before offseason moves, and free-agency, this looks like a 5-6 win season to me. On the bright side it might be finally enough to get Steichen and Ballard both out of Indianapolis, but if recent history is going to repeat itself, this team is somehow going to manage to get around .500, miss the playoffs once again, and the franchise will run it back because of insert excuse for next year here.
My opinion on this is that some fans might be happy with winning games against terrible teams and remaining somewhat competitive, and losing most of the time against teams above .500, but I have a hard time staying behind a franchise that continues to support and encourage mediocrity. Thats what this franchise is right now: mediocre. In the meantime, look at the rest of the AFC. The Jags got themselves a new head-coach that revitalized their franchise and revived Trevor Lawrence. The Patriots got a leader at head-coach and are playing their best football, looking once again like Super Bowl contenders. The Texans did what Ballard could never and built a stonewall defense that allows their offense plenty of possesions to score. I don’t think there is a single team in the AFC whose future looks more mediocre than us. I understand taking risks and failing, I understand that sometimes in the life-cycle of today’s NFL you have to suck a few years before you manage to put together a winning product once again, but what I cannot understand is how this franchise’s leadership can be so happy and give so many chances to mediocre leaders.
