The Atlanta Falcons had some daunting matchups heading into 2025, but a few of them turned out to be easier than expected. The Buffalo Bills were in a downswing when Atlanta saw them—though they did a very nice job of shutting them down, regardless—and the Vikings and Buccaneers have been far worse than expected. They hung tough against the Patriots and gave a game first half effort against the Seahawks before the wheels came off, and now they’ll have to dig very deep to stand a chance against the Los
Angeles Rams.
At this point, the Rams are the team I expect to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The collapse against the Seahawks and inexplicable loss to the Panthers give me some pause, but there’s no other team with their mix of talent, coaching savvy, and relatively good health at the moment; only the Eagles and Seahawks are really in the conversation. The Falcons will need to be both good and lucky to stand a chance of knocking them off in primetime.
Here’s what you need to know about Monday Night Football.
Team rankings
The Falcons are a worse team across the board, to the surprise of exactly zero of you. They’re one of the few teams in the Rams’ neighborhood in terms of rushing and have fared better against opposing quarterbacks than the Rams, and have been a little less likely to give the ball away. But Los Angeles boasts a much more productive passing attack, a better run defense, and a more opportunistic defense in terms of turnovers; that’s part of why they’re 11-4 and the Falcons are 6-9.
How the Rams have changed
The Falcons last saw Los Angeles in 2022, and while Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are constants, there have been plenty of changes since then.
The team has gone from having an inconsistent rushing attack with Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers to an excellent one with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, have moved on from Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson in favor of Davante Adams and Puka Nacua, and have put together an impressive tight end room. The defense has been transformed, with Hall of Famer Aaron Donald retired and new faces like Jared Verse taking his place. What has not changed is that the Rams are one of the NFC’s premier contenders, and one of the scariest teams to face on a week-in, week-out basis.
They will be without Adams, however, which is about the only post-Christmas cheer I can offer here.
What to know about Week 17
This is not going to be a fun one. Remember how I wrote that the Seahawks game was likely to be a bloodbath, and ultimately it was? That’s my expectation on steroids, given how good the Rams are and given how they’re smarting from a tough couple of weeks.
Can the Falcons win this one? Of course. They’ve nearly knocked off the Patriots, knocked off the Bills, and fought some quality teams to near-draws, even if wins against the Vikings and Buccaneers look less shiny than they would have in August. Getting Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier involved against a tough front to help balance things out and then killing the Rams over the middle of the field with Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and a steady diet of Bijan targets; pressuring Matthew Stafford to force incompletions and keeping the damage from Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to a minimum would give the Falcons a real shot. Of course, exactly none of those things are simple.
Start with running the football. The Rams are tied for ninth in yards per carry against and have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns than any other football team. Aside from Braden Fiske, Jared Verse, and corners Emmanuel Forbes and Cobie Durant, nearly every starter on this defense has been stout this year; you can run by Verse and over Forbes and Durant. That will increase the degree of difficulty for the Falcons, though their habit of running outside will at least allow Allgeier and Robinson to avoid the teeth of the defense.
The pass defense isn’t stellar, but Los Angeles has assembled a good group of safeties and a decent set of corners, all of which will help them against Pitts in particular and London and Robinson to a lesser extent. Their pass rush is also difficult to defend, with Pro Bowlers Byron Young (11 sacks) and Jared Verse (6.5 sacks) working with Cobie Turner to form a formidable trio. Kirk Cousins has been great about hanging in there to deliver balls under pressure, but he still isn’t showing he can escape it, and that could lead to drive-killing problems.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons will also have to stop two good, physical backs running behind a terrific offensive line, all while keeping the great Puka Nacua in check and dealing with the Rams cycling targets to their capable tight ends. If that doesn’t sound easy to you, it’s because it’s not going to be.
And above all, the Falcons have to get to Matthew Stafford, which is a risky proposition. Stafford has seven touchdowns and zero interceptions against pressure this season, per PFF; even though his completion rate plummets, it’s either getting close enough to impact his throw or getting killed by him. Stafford is not fast of feet, so David Onyemata, Ruke Orhorhoro, and especially Brandon Dorlus will be key to the effort with pressure up the middle, forcing Stafford to move into (hopefully) the waiting arms of James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker. But Stafford also is great at subtle movement and can rip a back-breaking throw from just about anywhere, so chances are we’re going to see some really enraging moments even if the pass rush is up to snuff.
This is gonna be hard as hell. If the Falcons pull off a win, I’ll be delighted and quite impressed.
