The Dallas Cowboys are 3-5-1 and spent the bye week recharging and replenishing. The latter is particularly true as Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams joined the fold. With players like DeMarvion Overshown
and Shavon Revel set to make their season debuts at some point soon, it isn’t unfair to say that things are going to look seriously different for a defense that has been among the NFL’s worst through the first half of the season.
It goes without saying that things are going to have to look different for the Cowboys to find themselves in the playoff picture at season’s end. We all understand that this feels incredibly unlikely right now, but this is the goal for every team and we are talking about it as a potential option. Nothing more.
Obviously for the Cowboys to be a playoff team this year they will have to play well, but what is the specific bar that they will have to clear?
This is what we are here to discuss.
Cowboys will have to reach 9 wins in all likelihood
For the purposes of today’s conversation we are going to be talking about the five years of NFL history that directly precede this one. We are focusing on 2020 through 2024 because they are the only five seasons to date in which the NFL had three Wild Card teams in each conference. It should also be noted that the league expanded the regular season to 17 games in 2021.
There were 55 different teams between 2020 and 2024 who had no more than three wins through their first nine games like this season’s Cowboys. Of those 55, there were five that went on to reach the playoffs. Shout out to our friends at Stathead for making this information easy to find and sort.
It is worth noting that the numbers are 43 teams and four to reach the playoffs if we cut out 2020 if you only want to focus on 17-game regular seasons.
Whichever sample size you prefer it is easy to see that the Cowboys are in all likelihood going to have to finish the season with at least nine wins to have a puncher’s chance at a postseason ticket. The only team here who did not reach that mark was the 2020 Washington Football Team, who only made the playoffs with a 7-9 record because it was enough to win a crummy NFC East. Even then, you could argue that the Eagles threw them their seventh win in Week 17 of that regular season, a matter that upset the 6-10 New York Giants. Again, the division was pretty bad that year.
The last team who managed to rally from this low of a point happened to be the one that broke the Cowboys franchise so badly that the team is still trying to recover from it. That 2023 Packers squad started the season 3-6, finished 9-8, and ultimately became the first #7 seed in NFL history to win a playoff game. The Cowboys always make history.
Given that this year’s Cowboys tied with the Packers, a nine-win season would put their overall record at 9-7-1. Obviously we don’t know if that would be enough in this year’s NFC playoff picture, but that is the minimum amount required based on history.
Here are the Cowboys remaining eight games:
- at Las Vegas Raiders
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Kansas City Chiefs
- at Detroit Lions
- Minnesota Vikings
- Los Angeles Chargers
- at Washington Commanders
- at New York Giants
Using the most optimistic take on those game, we can give the Cowboys wins against the Raiders, Commanders, and Giants. That would put the Cowboys at six wins total which means they would need three more.
At season’s beginning, it was pretty popular to say that Dallas would split the season series with Philadelphia so let’s continue to reach and add that one. On the subject of splitting, the Cowboys may do so with the Vikings and Chargers which means they are going to have to take one between Kansas City and Detroit (under this specific hypothetical). Nine wins can come from any particular combination and ultimately may not even be enough, but it is the measurable goal right now.
