The Detroit Lions eked out a victory last week to help them keep pace in a competitive NFC playoff picture. It wasn’t pretty—at times it was outright ugly—but there are no style points attached to wins
in the NFL, and there is no rest this week for the Lions. They turn things around on a short week, as is the franchise’s tradition, with their annual Thanksgiving Day game, and we’re here to give you a preview of the main course this Thursday.
This week, we had the pleasure of connecting with Justis Mosqueda, Acme Packing Company’s Editor-In-Chief, to give us some insight into the NFC North rival. We got the lowdown on the Packers’ recent offensive struggles, how losing a key player on that side of the ball has changed their personnel groupings, and how defensive stability and key adjustments have kept them firmly in a crowded playoff race heading into Detroit.
Jordan Love was getting some early-season MVP buzz, but that has since seemed to die down a bit as the Packers’ offense stalled out against the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles in back-to-back weeks. What’s to explain his lack of production over the last four weeks?
So it really started in Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns. Head coach Matt LaFleur does not want the team testing deep coverages (he’s very conservative in that way). So when Browns DC Jim Schwartz (ever heard of him?) called the second-highest rate of split-safety coverages in his NFL career, the Packers’ offense just checked the ball down and ran the ball.
The offense that had been taking shots deep in Week 1 and Week 2 just threw one ball over like 7 yards in the entire game. You can see it in this spray chart.
That strategy was replicated a lot recently. The Steelers tried to do it, but Tucker Kraft put up a historical amount of YAC yards only to go down with an ACL tear the week later. Then the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles executed the game plan to perfection. Without being able to run the ball, this is just the way that LaFleur has chosen to play offense.
Things have opened up a little over the last two weeks, as Love has been allowed to test the intermediate sidelines, an area of the field that LaFleur doesn’t usually like targeting or even running routes into (he likes in-breakers much more). They’ve also made some changes to the run game (Anthony Belton at RG, Sean Rhyan coming in at C for the injured Elgton Jenkins and OL Darian Kinnard playing TE) to help improve the blocking up front. So it’s getting better, but they had to take in on the chin over and over for LaFleur to realize that his running game and the YAC ability on the team post-Kraft wasn’t good enough to just accept a check down on every pass play.
Love has played well, even in the Panthers/Eagles games (you have to trust me, I know the numbers are bad). The problem was the depth of open routes (the team wasn’t attacking the intermediate sideline at all) and drops from receivers. Honestly, the biggest thing I’m worried about with Love is the fact that he can only handoff the ball with his right hand because of his separated left shoulder.
Tucker Kraft suffered a torn ACL earlier this month against the Carolina Panthers. How has his injury impacted a passing offense that has been one of the best in the NFL by DVOA (third, 42.0%) and EPA/pass (+0.18) measures? How is Luke Musgrave similar and/or different in what the offense can accomplish with him replacing Kraft?
So… Luke Musgrave. Musgrave was initially the team’s replacement tight end, but it was found out quickly that he provided the team no YAC ability (he’s a straight line speed guy) or blocking ability. So the Packers have pivoted to actually playing John FitzPatrick (a blocking tight end) and Josh Whyle (a hybrid move fullback type of guy who was on the practice squad before Kraft’s injury) more over the last two weeks. In fact, you can argue that Musgrave was actually TE4 last week, as even OL Darian Kinnard played more offensive snaps than him. Kinnard played 21 snaps as a tight end against the Vikings.
So the way they pivoted from Kraft, initially, was to play 11 personnel with Musgrave. That didn’t work against the Eagles, and the team quickly changed to becoming a 12 personnel team that plays a lot of 6 OL sets. I think they figured that if they aren’t gonna get much receiving production from tight end anyway, they might as well get some better blocking (either in pass pro or in the run game) from FitzPatrick or Kinnard.
Micah Parsons is getting a lot of attention, and rightfully so, for the pass-rush he provides for Green Bay’s defense–he’s currently third in the league in pass-rush win rate per PFF (24.2%). But which Packers’ defender has been the biggest benefactor of Parsons’ presence on the edge?
Honestly, it’s probably the cornerbacks. No other pass-rusher has really taken the step up this year, despite Micah Parsons drawing those double teams. It’s rare to get dropback pass against the Packers, though, because teams are so worried about Parsons. The team is getting a lot of run looks and quick passes, rather than full-field progression reads. Opposing OCs want the ball out QUICK. I think that’s helped the cornerbacks, though, Carrington Valentine is putting together a pretty special year. He probably would get more notice if he wouldn’t have dropped like three interceptions earlier in 2025.
After trading Kenny Clark, some wondered how effective the Packers would be in stopping the run, but they’ve handled that pretty well, only allowing 3.9 yards per carry this season. Who has stepped up in place of Clark?
At nose tackle, the replacement has been Colby Wooden, who is listed by the team in the 270s but is playing around 300. It’s really a three-man rotation between Wooden, Karl Brooks and Devonte Wyatt at defensive tackle. Warren Brinson also plays some snaps. Last week, Brinson took over pass-rushing downs at nose tackle because Brooks was on a pitch count with an injury. Overall, the defense has been pretty good at tackling and rallying to the ball, so that’s been a bigger deal than the nose tackle position, specifically.
How confident do you feel in the Packers making the playoffs–and how much of that confidence hinges on the outcome of this Thanksgiving Day matchup? Do you think the Packers pull off another win in Detroit on Thanksgiving?
As far as I see it, three of these four teams will make the playoffs: The Packers, Lions, Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers. All of them won last week, so it’s not making the projection any easier. As long as Green Bay doesn’t finish last in this group to end the season, they should get in (same for the Lions!) I’m going to assume that the Bears will collapse at some point. I’m just not buying the hype right now. A win against the Lions would certainly clear up the playoff picture a bit, though.
I don’t know if the Packers pull off the upset here, but it would be nice to finally sweep Detroit again. I think this one is going to be tight to start. It feels like the first team to gain a two-score lead is going to run away with this one, because I don’t think either team is prepared to make up the distance when gameflow turns south. I wouldn’t be surprised if Green Bay tried to take some shots early to try to start off with that early momentum and force the Lions to pass the ball instead of leaning on the ground game.
