Series Roadmap
Part 0: Inside the Evaluation
Part I: Game Grades
Part II: True Passer Rating
Part III: On-Target Rate
Part IV: 2024 → 2025 Growth
You are here ➡️ Part V: 2026 Preview
A Quick Peak into the Past
Before the 2025 season kicked off, I put together an in-depth preview of what the Chicago Bears offense might look like under Ben Johnson. It also happened to be the first article I ever wrote here on Windy City Gridiron.
In that piece, I laid out some projected numbers for the 2025 Bears offense. Using a (very) crude Python script,
I ran 1,000 simulations of the upcoming season to estimate things like run/pass split, play-action rate, and even Caleb Williams’ projected stat line.
Among other things, the model forecasted notable increases in yards per attempt, yards per completion, and yards per rush.
So… how did it do?
With the addition of Ben Johnson, paired with an expected Year 2 leap from Caleb Williams, the model predicted offensive growth across the board. Most impressively, it nailed the run/pass split almost exactly.
It did overshoot a bit when it came to increases in yards per attempt and yards per completion, but that was largely driven by historical data from Ben Johnson-led offenses. At the time, there was no way to account for the specific identity he would build in 2025, which leaned more into explosive plays rather than the high-percentage, underneath passing game that defined his time in Detroit.
From a macro, team-wide perspective, the model did a solid job capturing overall offensive growth. The biggest miss came in play-action rate, where the Bears didn’t just increase usage… they nearly doubled it from 2024 to 2025.
Predicting Caleb Williams’ 2025 Season
As mentioned, I also used this model to project Caleb Williams’ 2025 stat line, focusing on all the major quarterback categories. I ran the simulation 1,000 times and then took the average across those runs to land on the final numbers.
(Funny side note: one of those simulations had Caleb Williams throwing for over 6,000 yards and 60+ touchdowns. What I would’ve given to see that one play out!)
The main areas to focus on here are completion percentage, passer rating, and sacks as far as missed projections are concerned.
As I mentioned earlier, this model was built within the framework of Ben Johnson’s experience as a play caller in Detroit. Going into the season, I don’t think anyone expected his offense in Chicago to lean this heavily into explosive plays, almost like the NBA philosophy of “it’s better to shoot 40% from three than 50% from two.”
Because of that, the model projected an notable increase in completion percentage, assuming the offense would emphasize shorter routes and rack up yards after the catch. At the time, I felt that projection might’ve been a bit aggressive, but it still followed the logic of how Johnson’s previous offenses operated. But as we quickly learned in 2025, Ben Johnson’s offense isn’t a singular mythos, it’s catered to the weapons within it.
Passer rating naturally ties into that. More completions generally lead to better efficiency numbers like yards per attempt and completion percentage, both of which heavily influence the passer rating formula.
Then there’s sacks. The model did anticipate a drop, but even that ended up underselling just how dramatic the improvement would be. It projected the total to be nearly cut in half, but in reality, Williams reduced his sacks by 44, nearly a two-thirds drop. That’s an incredible turnaround.
Outside of that, the model held up pretty well. It was within 315 yards on total passing yards (which could honestly be accounted for by drops alone), and it was almost spot on in passing touchdowns, attempts, and yards per attempt.
All things considered, not bad for a model that’s basically just simulating numbers.
2026 Preview and Projection
Now that we have a full season of 2025 data, along with a much better understanding of Ben Johnson’s offensive philosophy in Chicago, we can recalibrate the model and aim for more accurate projections heading into 2026.
This version leans into what we actually saw, a stronger emphasis on explosive plays over low-yield, “empty calorie” passing, a play-action rate pushing close to 35%, and the natural progression you expect from both a quarterback and an offense entering year two in the same system. (And based on everything we’ve covered in this series, progression is something we should absolutely expect.)
So with that in mind, let’s run another 1,000 simulations of the 2026 season and take the average outcome to see what the model spits out this time around.
As we saw in Parts 1 through 4, Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears passing offense steadily improved as the 2025 season went on, with some of their best football coming late in the year by nearly every metric. With another year in the system, the model projects continued growth essentially across the board.
Let’s break it all down.
Pass/Run %:
With more trust in the passing game, along with a projected step back in the run game due to instability along the offensive line (following the retirement of Drew Dalman and the injury to Ozzy Trapilo), the model predicts a slight increase in pass rate. Overall, passing plays are expected to rise by about 2.6% compared to 2025 as the ground game becomes a little less effective due to the shuffle at the line.
Yards Per Completion (YPC):
Caleb Williams finished top five in yards per completion in 2025, but as the season progressed, he leaned more into underneath options to stay ahead of schedule. The projected 11.8 YPC is a slight dip, but still comfortably within the top 10. The tradeoff here is improved efficiency, as those underneath looks should help boost completion percentage.
Yards Per Rush (YPR):
The Bears averaged just under 5.0 yards per carry in 2025, one of the best marks in the league. With changes along the offensive line, a slight dip in efficiency is expected. The run game should still be effective with a 4.5 yards per carry mark, just not quite at the same level as 2025.
Play-Action %:
Williams was essentially thrown into a playbook loaded with play-action in 2025, nearly doubling his usage from 16.9% in 2024 to 32.3%. With another year of experience, and strong production off play-action (top five in both yards and touchdowns, with a 91.5 passer rating), the model projects a modest increase to 35.2%.
Traditional Statistics:
This includes completions/attempts, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and passer rating. The model has Williams crossing two major franchise benchmarks in 2026, a 4,000-yard season and 30 passing touchdowns, further solidifying his place as the franchise quarterback. Completion percentage rises to a career-high 63.6%, driven by improved comfort in the system, offseason work on accuracy and footwork, and a greater willingness to take underneath completions. Interceptions tick up slightly as his historically low rate regresses toward the mean, but remain well under control at a projected 1.5% for 9 interceptions on the year.
Secondary Statistics:
This covers fumbles lost, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. Williams becomes a bit more decisive as a runner, adding 405 rushing yards and four touchdowns, particularly as the Bears expand their red zone package, and area where they saw some struggles in 2025. Ball security remains a strength, with just two lost fumbles projected.
Sacks Taken:
Some regression is expected here given the offseason changes along the offensive line. Even so, Williams should maintain a strong pressure-to-sack rate, with improvement as the unit gels over the course of the season. A total of 34 sacks would land him right around league average.
All of this points toward another top-10 offensive finish for the Bears, as they remain firmly in the mix to compete for the NFC North.
And, sadly, just like that, we’ve reached the end of this five-part breakdown of Caleb Williams’ 2025 season. It’s been an absolute pleasure watching a young quarterback grow into his own at the NFL level, and just as rewarding to track, cover, and grade that progression here on Windy City Gridiron.
There’s still plenty to come this offseason, including a full 2024 re-grade to help build out an even stronger data set moving forward.
But before we close things out, one final question for Bears fans:
What do you expect from Caleb Williams and this offense in 2026?
Let us know in the comments below.
And as always… Bear down!
Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.
