It was only a couple of weeks ago that the St. Louis Cardinals put an end to the Giants’ fun of competing for the third Wild Card, and the three-game series that kicks off tonight sets them up to spoil
Bob Melvin’s attempt to finish the season 82-80 for the second time in three seasons. Of course, that would be a great final result for the Giants, as they’ve not finished a season above .500 since their miracle 107-55 mark in 2021. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are trying to avoid their third losing season this century.
Nolan Arenado is back which usually means trouble for the Giants. He has a career .799 OPS at Oracle Park in 317 plate appearances and is a career 26-for-75 (.346) against the scheduled starters. He’s really beat up on Robbie Ray, though, going 16-for-43 with 7 doubles, 3 homers, and a triple against him.
After taking 2 out of 3 from the Giants, St. Louis dropped five straight and have won just 3 of their last 11. The Giants are 5-8 over the same stretch. Neither team is good, and they’re both vying to finish with the exact same record; but the Giants would seem to have the advantage solely because they’re hosting this series and the Cardinals haven’t been very good on the road (32-43). Still, the Giants are just 10-17 at Oracle Park since the All-Star break.
One final note about records: the Giants have won the season series against the Cardinals just once since 2015 (excluding 2020, when they didn’t meet): 2023. Otherwise, the Giants have gone 26-37 against them over that span.
While 82-80 isn’t a cool result to strive for, it’s still better than the alternatives because it’s the only one that would mark some sort of improvement. There are other things to play for still, too:
- Willy Adames is just 2 home runs away from 30. He’s gone just 6-for-34 with 14 strikeouts (but 10 walks!) since he last homered, and the Giants have gone 2-8, too, but maybe both of these teams knowing that they’re not making the postseason this year will loosen them up?
- Logan Webb is just 4.1 IP away from hitting 200 IP for the third consecutive season. He already leads the National League in strikeouts (211), but also hits allowed (199). He’s a career 3-3 with a 5.30 ERA against St. Louis. In the second half, he’s 5-5 with a 3.86 ERA (70 IP) and the Giants are just 6-6 in his starts.
- Heliot Ramos’s 671 plate appearances means that in game one he could hit the 675 PA mark, which would make him only the 18th Giant in franchise history, aged 25 or younger, to reach that mark. Admittedly, it’s more impressive in the 154-game context, which comprises most of the list, but the names in the 162-game context are still a pleasure to see:
- Bobby Bonds (24), 1970 — 745 PA
- Bobby Bonds (23), 1969 — 720 PA
- Chili Davis (22), 1982 — 701 PA
- Bobby Bonds (25), 1971 — 691 PA
- Will Clark (24), 1988 — 689 PA
- Orlando Cepeda (24), 1962 — 677 PA
- Justin Verlander is just 3.1 IP away from hitting the 145 IP mark on the season, which would make him just the 41st pitcher aged 42 or older to reach that many innings in a season. If he pitches 5.1 innings, he’d tie Phil Niekro’s mark in 1987 and if he pitches seven innings, he’d match Danny Darwin’s 1998.
And, you know, Bryce Eldridge is still looking for that first major league home run…
Series overview
Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday at 6:45pm PT
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Monday: Michael McGreevy (RHP 7-3, 4.08 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (RHP 3-10, 3.75 ERA)
Tuesday: Andre Pallante (RHP 6-15, 5.29 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (RHP 14-11, 3.27 ERA)
Wednesday: Sonny Gray (RHP 14-8, 4.33 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP 11-8, 3.65 ERA)
Where they stand
Cardinals: 76-80, 4th in NL Central, 4.0 GB in Wild Card, Last 10: 4-6, Road record: 32-43
Giants: 77-79, 4th in NL West, 3.0 GB in Wild Card, Last 10: 3-7, Home record: 38-37
Prediction time
It seems highly unlikely that 82 wins would be enough to secure the final Wild Card spot, but I predict the Giants won’t be eliminated from postseason contention in this series. And if they are? Well, you can blame me for being positive, I suppose, but I think it’s just a formality. The Giants have been out of this thing for a while, and it would be obnoxious to still be talking about the team in relation to the postseason here in the final week — which is why I’m predicting it will still be the case. Maximum obnoxiousness.
