The Detroit Pistons went from perennial league laughing stock to the first team in NBA history to triple their win total from one season to the next. They followed that up by winning 60 games and finishing first in the Eastern Conference. So why does it feel like everyone is doubting the Pistons yet again?
“I still feel like we’re a little slept on, man,” star guard Cade Cunningham told the Detroit Free Press. “I still feel like people don’t really give us the credit that maybe we’ve earned. But again,
that’s the beauty of it, and that’s part of being in Detroit and part of being on a team that’s young and people don’t expect much, versus other teams that have bigger names or whatever you want to call it. We don’t really worry too much about that stuff. Just have to go out at the highest level and represent.”
The latest GM survey predicts the Pistons will go from first in the conference to fifth. Detroit certainly hasn’t garnered the splashy headlines of others in the conference. Teams projected to finish in front of Detroit include the Knicks (won the championship), Sixers (signed LeBron James, traded for Jaylen Brown), Cavaliers (eliminated Detroit in playoffs, traded for Peyton Watson), and Celtics (full Jayson Tatum season, signed Mitchell Robinson, traded for Paul George). There are plenty who also think the Kawhi Leonard-led Toronto Raptors will also vault in front of Detroit.
Las Vegas is no kinder to the Pistons. Detroit’s over-under is 47.5 wins. That 12.5-game drop is among the steepest projected drops in NBA history.
Four teams in the past 20 years have been projected by Vegas to win at least 10 fewer games a season after winning 60. That would already mean Detroit would be projected to be among the league’s historic outliers, but if you dive a little deeper, it gets even worse.
The four teams are the 2010-11 Cleveland Cavaliers, the 2015-16 Atlanta Hawks, the 2024-25 Boston Celtics, and this year’s Pistons. Two of those teams had major roster changes that led to Vegas being considerably cooler on them the following year. The Cavaliers were set to be realing after seeing their best player, LeBron James, take his talents to South Beach. The Celtics had made painful, financially motivated roster cuts and were staring at a season without Jayson Tatum.
Then there is the Atlanta Hawks. Not much changed, to be honest. Their biggest loss was losing DeMarre Carroll to the Raptors. Everyone was shocked that they won 60 and projected significant regression, and that regression hit. They actually underperformed their 49.5-win projection, winning 48 games.
The Pistons’ primary goal this season — don’t be the Atlanta Hawks.
While that might be Detroit’s closest analog, and both teams surprised the year before, they aren’t remotely similar rosters. The Hawks had outlier elite perimeter shooting seasons from several players. They weren’t led by a superstar and instead were a well-oiled machine that performed at peak levels of all season.
Detroit relies much less on role players to take them to glory. Instead, they are led by All-NBA players Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Ausar Thompson. Crucially, those aren’t veterans having career years. They are 25, 22, and 23 years old, respectively. They are young, have elite skills, and are only getting better.
Nothing about their record last season was a mirage. They finished 30-15 against teams with winning records, and 13-6 against the top-four teams in both conferences. They had nearly the same success without Cade Cunningham (13-5, 72.2% win percentage) as they did with him (47-17, 73.4%).
While the Pistons didn’t make any franchise-altering moves this season, the moves they did make might actually make them a better regular-season team. They lost starter Tobias Harris and backup big man Isaiah Stewart.
Those players were replaced by John Collins, an efficient perimeter shooter and rim finisher, and incumbent Paul Reed, an incredibly efficient inside player who has been a plus player in his minutes throughout his career. Add to that a second elite movement shooter in Isaiah Joe to complement Duncan Robinson, and suddenly, Detroit’s core trio has something they haven’t had much of throughout their careers — space to work.
Detroit ranked 29th in 3-point attempts last season and was a below-average conversion team despite having Robinson, one of the league’s best and most reliable perimeter marksmen. John Collins attempted 100 more field goals within five feet than Tobias Harris did last season, converting 75% of them. He also shot better from three on a similar ratio of shots.
Complementary pieces aren’t ever going to win you headlines, but they might win you ball games. If Detroit can maintain its top-five defense and add the kind of space that allows them to move the needle on both their perimeter and interior scoring, they could also be looking at a top-5-7 offense. That is the kind of mix that can take you to the NBA Finals.
The playoffs, well, that’s a different conversation for a different day. They still feel like a team that is a piece away from their final title-contending form. But win projections aren’t a playoff metric — it’s a regular season stat. And somehow, once again, nobody believes in Detroit.
The Pistons get a chance to prove everyone wrong, again, on Tuesday against the Boston Celtics. Detroit vs. Everybody.
