This week we’ve got a matchup featuring two good quarterbacks and two underwhelming pass defenses. Let the points fly, perhaps!
Duke’s defense was the key to its success in 2024, but some significant losses on that side of the ball, in the secondary especially, has resulted in steep decline to begin 2o25. The Blue Devils already have surrendered 30+ points twice, which matches the number of times they did that in all of 2024. A quick glance at the respective defensive radars for this year and last
makes the difference stark.
Opposing quarterbacks are completing 67.6% of their throws for an average of 9.2 yards per attempt, with a passer rating of 157.91. Those numbers in 2024: 58.0, 6.5, 121.66. Duke has been about as good as it was last year in creating havoc at the line of scrimmage, it’s just that the back end has had more than its share of disastrous moments.
Negative plays created up front will be a subplot to keep an eye on, as Duke’s defense is among the nation’s best in terms of havoc rate, while State’s offense has been among the very worst in havoc rate allowed.
While Duke’s defense is trending in the wrong direction this season, Duke’s offense has gone in the opposite direction, just as you’d expect from a unit that made a significant offseason upgrade at quarterback. Darian Mensah has been good, and Duke’s gone from 89th in EPA per pass play last year to 39th in 2025. Duke hasn’t been shy about leaning on him, as he’s thrown the ball at least 34 times in each game. (Though they’ve also fallen multiple scores behind in the last two.)
The Blue Devils lost their top two receivers from a year ago but returned two 40-catch guys in Que’Sean Brown and Sahmir Hagans and added Cooper Barkate, who had over 1,000 yards receiving for Harvard last season. From Actual Harvard to Frat Guy Harvard, what a transition. At least he’s already used to small crowds.
Duke’s ground game has been poor but last year it was completely non-existent, so this is improvement. The steady-but-unspectacular veteran Jaquez Moore is the starter and should get the bulk of the work but we may see more of true freshman Nate Sheppard, who had 75 yards on five carries against Tulane. Sheppard leads the team in rushing yards with 127 despite just 15 carries.
Like State, Duke has also been plagued by some special teams problems (a muffed punt, a blocked field goal, for example) that have led to some unpleasant adventures, and the Blue Devils have been losing the field position struggle this season. This game’s definitely got some decent odds to get zany, for better or worse and, potentially, worser.
