October 4th delivered a new type of painful loss to Alabama. For much of Vanderbilt football history, the pain has been because the loss was by a ridiculous number of points or was never competitive. The most recent matchup was a 9-point game with a garbage time TD on 4th and 2 thrown on top.
Vanderbilt did a lot to hurt itself in the game. Maybe even more than Alabama really did to stop them. It was a departure from how things have been this or last season. Unfortunately, it happens. Competitors
have bad days. When you stand toe-to-toe with other high-end competition, those mistakes are amplified. But what did we learn?
Lessons We Know Well
This team will go as Diego Pavia goes. Yes, we all knew that. It had not been directly addressed here, but the sentiment was understood. Before the Alabama game, I went over all the ways he had played better than last year, which was essentially everything except a slight uptick in turnovers. The turnovers were the story in Tuscaloosa. Pavia was 5/7 for 48 yards on Vanderbilt’s first 2 possessions. He also carried the ball twice for 39 yards, including a 36-yard carry on 1st and 14 to kickstart the second drive. Then, on 3rd and 10, he slipped out for 5 yards before fumbling at the Alabama 8. The chip shot FG would have made it 10-0 Vanderbilt. He finished the day 21/35 for 198 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT (also in the red zone but on 1st down) while rushing for 58 yards on 12 carries. It was a day where the brash QB appeared to put all the weight on his own shoulders when other parts of the offense were working. As I said in the mailbag, I hope Pavia’s lesson in that game was to trust his teammates, especially the running backs. He may set the tone. He does not have to be the whole show.
Lessons We Are Learning
Junior Sherrill is Vanderbilt’s WR1, but Tre Richardson is the one other teams are most worried about hurting them. Sherrill is 2nd in both receptions (23) and receiving yards (274). Richardson is right behind him in 3rd at both (20 catches and 242 yards). He has also carried the ball 4 times for 37 yards. The leader in both categories is, of course, Eli Stowers. The statistical similarity between Sherrill and Richardson somewhat disguises how they operate. Sherrill is the craftier route runner that can perform throughout the route tree but most often operates on outs, curls, slants, and other quicker breaking routes while making a lot of catches in the short to intermediate ranges. Richardson is the explosive one who is used a lot on screens but also deep shots. Yes, Richardson can run all of the same routes Sherrill does, but it is not quite as technical and more about his raw athleticism. The complementary nature of the tandem may seem like a “tell,” but as soon as a team does not respect Sherrill going deep or Richardson running a simple in or out route, Tim Beck will dial one up to make them pay.
The man who is ahead of them both in the receiving categories is so special, but he too had an off day against Alabama. Eli Stowers was targeted 7 times but only had 3 catches. There were 2 or 3 drops that he absolutely would want back. He was overthrown once or twice. One good defensive play picked off a pass headed his way thanks to a bit of a shield provided by the umpire to keep the defender out of Pavia’s line of sight. Those 3 catches went for 22 yards with a long of 8, so they were all very similar distance plays. What makes the versatile TE so dangerous is that he can feint a block then slip out for a catch that he turns into a chunk of yards with his athleticism, or he can use that athleticism to be a coverage nightmare for LBs and DBs alike. With LSU’s LBs likely focused heavily on stopping the run, as most teams LBs are with Beck’s offense, this might be a game where he can make a statement.
For the first time all season, the RBs were not impressive. It was not their fault though. They combined for 6 total carries which did gain 78 yards. Sedrick Alexander ripped off 65 of them on the opening drive TD. Whether it was playcalling from the coaches or Pavia checking/reading out of the handoffs, they cannot be this uninvolved at any point the rest of the season. The offense works best when these guys are drawing attention. Going away from it without really being stopped is insanity.
The offensive line had yet another very good performance. I was tempted to boost them up, but it felt weird to do that in a game where the running game did so little. The running game was not great on the 5 other carries, only earning 2.6 YPC, but that is such a small sample size it feels meaningless. Alabama only managed 2 TFLs (1 sack). The OL may not have been road grading Alabama like they did some opponents, but Pavia was not under the gun consistently. In and of itself, that is impressive.
The defensive line is leading the way on the run defense, too. They are styming opposing Ols and allowing Langston Patterson, Bryan Longwell, CJ Heard, and others to step up and close plays down. There was only 1 TFL in the running game, but they held Alabama to just 3.8 yards per carry. Jam Miller slipped out for one or two longer runs with a longest carry of 22, but it was generally bottled up.
Lessons for Further Study
Were the penalties a little better against Alabama? Maybe? They were called for 1 False Start, 1 Offside, and 3 personal fouls. The first Personal Foul was a hands to the face call on the first drive where it was just a bit too aggressive on the hand-fighting, and they end up knocking the head back. Then it was Vanderbilt’s last meaningful offensive possession when an idiotic Personal Foul was hit for a big blindside block thrown way away from the play as Richardson was going out of bounds for a good gain out to the Vanderbilt 37. The last one was on an Alabama interception that was waived off for defensive holding, but a very questionable late hit was called when the intercepting player appeared to stay in bounds while trying to continue return then was hit again. Over the course of the game, it was much better. Then emotions ran high at the end. There is still stuff to clean up, but it may have been a good step, especially against an opponent that should force you into more holdings, both offensive and defensive, and similar penalties where mistakes lead to fouls to prevent big plays.
Can the pass defense find a way to get nickel-and-dimed a bit less while still not giving up the kill shots? The pass rush is fine right now. Oftentimes, they are causing issues with 4-man pressures. I think only 1 of the 4 sacks came off a blitz. The pass rush does need to be a little better about keeping QBs in the pocket instead of allowing them to scramble wide and extend plays. However, the problem on the back end is a bit too much cushion in “safe” zones. Alabama exploited some Cover 3 looks by putting 2 WRs on Martel Hight’s side then having one run a skinny post while the other ran a go or fade up the sideline. It put 2 players in his zone with no one else really in position to see the danger and help early enough. That exploitation created two big completions. With Hight back at corner more and less at WR, this defense should have the bodies to be a little more aggressive on the back end. They have been excellent at not giving up the big TDs, but Alabama did have completions of 54, 27, 35, and 30 yards.
What way does the turnover battle go? Vanderbilt lost it against Alabama with the only Crimson Tide turnover being Ty Simpson’s interception on their first drive on a 4th and 1 pass. LSU has fumbled the ball 8 times but only lost 3. Garrett Nussmeier has thrown 5 interceptions. Vanderbilt has turned the ball over 6 times, with 4 being Pavia interceptions. Pavia also had 1 of the fumbles lost while Alexander is responsible for the other. Defensively, LSU has snagged 8 picks and recovered 2 fumbles. Vanderbilt gets the ball back the opposite way with 6 fumbles recovered and just 4 interceptions. With how much LSU’s offense struggles, winning the turnover battle would go a long way to killing their drives early, keeping them out of good field position, or both.
What does OC Tim Beck have coming out of the bye and one game after the offense got as one-dimensional as I can remember? It was a lot of straight dropback passing, and there were none of the jet sweeps that generally keep defense moving horizontally. It was strange, but it was also pretty effective when players were not making uncharacteristic mistakes. DC Steve Gregory had the extra week to get his own creativity going and maybe reshape some of the defensive tendencies and weaknesses.
Finally, as it has been every week, can Vanderbilt be the team we all hope they can be in a big moment? Their last game was a loss to the #10 team in the country. This one is against the #10 team again after Alabama moved up. It is a home game where the matchup seems more favorable. The analytics and experts are heavy on the Commodores, even if the margin is expected to be tight. The Vanderbilt players have not been as quotable this week, but they have still been confident. It will be an early kickoff on ABC, so the attention will be high even if it may take time for the energy in the stadium to build.
Vanderbilt needs to win this game. Some of it is the “duh, they can only lose 1 or 2 more games and still have a shot at the CFP,” but the bigger reason is that they are favored. They are coming off their bye week. This game sets up well for them. Being unable to get the marquee win when the circumstances are in their favor would not bode well for the rest of the season.
