Each week, I’ll publish two film-room previews: one focusing on the offense and one on the defense. These are primarily film-based, focusing on the schemes, tendencies, and matchups that could shape Sunday’s game, with all statistics coming from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I also record a video version for Patreon, where I break down the plays in greater detail and where you can further support my work.
The Bears’ defense has a clear personality. Dennis Allen wants to pressure the quarterback,
play aggressively behind it, and trust his corners to survive tough outside matchups. I can see plenty of opportunities to score. The Bears have some good individual defenders, but I don’t think they have the talent across the back end to play this aggressively without giving up chances in both the passing and running game.
Pass Defense
The first thing that stands out is how willing the Bears are to leave their outside corners exposed. They have played man coverage on 43.3% of snaps through two games, more than double the league average, and they have frequently shown a single-high safety behind it. This isn’t a defense that spends the whole game protecting its corners with two safeties deep. Allen wants to challenge receivers, crowd the line of scrimmage, and make the quarterback beat tight coverage before the rush arrives.
Jaylon Johnson has allowed the most receiving yards of any corner through two weeks, and while I would never judge a player entirely by that number, I can see the problems on film. Some of it is Johnson’s play; some of it is the position the scheme puts him in. If the Bears keep leaving him isolated outside, the Eagles have to test him. This should be a week for Jalen Hurts to give his receivers opportunities down the sideline.
Tyrique Stevenson has had problems outside, too. The Panthers attacked the Bears with variations of double moves and were very successful. When a corner is playing aggressively with limited help behind him, one false step can become a huge play. I would like to see the Eagles use bunches and switch releases to give Dontayvion Wicks and DeVonta Smith cleaner releases, then take shots once they have established those threats.
Stevenson hurt his hamstring against the Vikings and was limited in Friday’s practice, so I would avoid assuming either that he will play or that he is out. If he does play, the Eagles should still test how well he can turn and run. Smith was also limited on Friday with a hamstring injury, so that matchup will depend on both players’ health by Monday.
I wasn’t especially impressed when the Bears moved away from man coverage, either. There have been communication errors in zone, and it is still early enough in the season for offenses to stress their coverage rules with motion and formation changes. The Eagles should find out how the Bears handle receivers crossing the formation and how quickly their defenders pass routes off to one another. If Allen responds by playing man, the Eagles get the individual matchups they should want. If he plays zone, there are chances to test the communication.
One young defensive back I would be careful about challenging unnecessarily is Malik Muhammad. Rookie slot corner Muhammad has probably been the Bears’ best player in the secondary through two games. His interception against the Panthers was unbelievable, and he has already shown he can contribute as a blitzer. He was a fourth-round pick, but he does not look like a player the Eagles should target simply because he is inexperienced. My preference is to work the outside matchups and make Allen decide how much help he is prepared to give his corners.
Dayo Odeyingbo was their most effective starting edge rusher against the Vikings, while Grady Jarrett remains capable of causing problems inside. Montez Sweat is still a player the Eagles must account for, and Austin Booker made an impact in limited opportunities last week. However, this does not look like a front that consistently overwhelms offensive lines with four rushers. They aren’t that talented.
That does not mean the Eagles can ignore Allen’s pressure packages. His double A-gap mug looks, with linebackers lined up over both sides of the center, are designed to make the protection declare itself before the offense knows who is actually rushing. A defender who appears ready to blitz can drop out, while pressure comes from somewhere else. Even without an elite four-man rush, this defense can win if the quarterback hesitates and the receivers take too long to separate. I would expect Hurts and the Eagles’ offensive line to spend plenty of time identifying those looks before the snap.
Hurts needs to know where his quick throw is if the Bears bring more rushers than the Eagles can block. The receivers need routes that can win quickly against man coverage. I also want the Eagles to remain willing to use play-action and attack vertically when they have earned the opportunity. The Bears were happy to play aggressive single-high coverage against the Vikings, even with Justin Jefferson outside. That gives an offense chances if its receivers win early or the linebackers take a step toward the run. The Bears have allowed explosive passes on 11.9% of pass plays through two weeks. They are giving opponents chances.
Run Defense
The Bears’ run defense is inconsistent. They have allowed negative EPA per rush, suggesting they have prevented the really damaging outcomes overall, but opponents still succeeded on 58.7% of their runs. Aaron Jones gained 105 yards on 23 carries last week. I noticed problems setting the edge in both games, particularly on the left side of their defense.
That should interest the Eagles, even though their own run game has been disappointing. They have leaned heavily on zone runs without consistently creating space for Saquon Barkley, and I don’t think the solution is simply to call outside zone more often and hope it suddenly works. I would like to see them call some crack-toss, pin-pull, and other perimeter variations that could help Barkley move laterally while forcing the Bears’ edge defenders to fit the run well.
Grady Jarrett is still playing well. At 33, he may still be the best defender on this unit, and he can affect both the run and the pass. He is not Jeffery Simmons, whom the Eagles faced last week, but that does not make him an easy assignment. If the Eagles’ interior offensive line struggles again, Jarrett will make plays in the backfield.
Lastly, the Bears have had some poor tackling in space. Former Eagle T.J. Edwards has had an uneven start, and their edge defenders have not consistently contained runs. The Eagles should make this defense run from side to side and tackle Barkley in space. That is a much better use of this matchup than repeatedly sending into stacked boxes and hoping he makes something happen.
The running game also matters because it changes what Allen can call. I do not want the Eagles repeatedly facing third-and-long against those mugged A-gap fronts. They need efficient early-down runs, but they should be willing to throw on early downs as well.
Final Thoughts
The Bears are aggressive enough to make this uncomfortable, and I do expect them to attack. However, the Eagles’ offense is more talented in this matchup. I expect another good Jalen Hurts game, and I’m hoping the run game can start to get going, too.
The uncertainty at Bears quarterback does not change my view of what the Eagles’ offense needs to do. I would not build an offensive game plan around assuming Vic Fangio’s defense will shut the Bears out. The Bears ran all over the Eagles last year, and Ben Johnson’s run game can still make a game difficult regardless of who plays quarterback. If the Eagles spend Monday night trying merely to avoid mistakes against this defense, I think they will be asking for trouble.
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