The Red Sox are off to a 3-8 start over their first eleven games. There is a lot of doom and gloom about teams starting like this never making the playoffs. Boston has dug itself a sizeable hole that would need something like a 13-7 run for the rest of April to balance out.
But the season is not over.
In fact, there’s a counterexample that shows hope is not lost and it features a famous ex-Red Sox.
All of a sudden it doesn’t seem like things are quite as bad, does it? After winning last night, the Red Sox caught up to the Giants’ record and made it to 3-8, exactly where San Francisco was before that post.
Facts going back to 1900 sound great, like the “fun fact” about the Phillies never recording a save on Opening Day at home until this season. The Phillies have been around forever. That’s a lot of Opening Days. A lot of home openers. A lot of save opportunities. Except that, because of the evolution of pitching usage, there actually wasn’t a century of save chances because bullpen strategy was wildly different for most of that century. And only half-ish of those Opening Days would have been home openers. And saves weren’t really a thing. It’s still a fun fact but it’s not quite as impressive.
The Red Sox were expected to contend for the AL East crown with the Blue Jays and Yankees in some combination. They weren’t necessarily the favorite, but in the mix. After the 3-8 start it’s hard to imagine the Sox winning the division. But even it a genie who can tell the future with 100% accuracy were to tell us that the Red Sox will not win the AL East, that doesn’t mean much. There are three Wild Cards! As of about 10:30 Tuesday, the Red Sox are 2.0 games out of a Wild Card spot. The Blue Jays are 1 game out. The Orioles and Rays are both sitting at 5-6.
Garrett Crochet looked good las night.
Garrett Whitlock — who they didn’t have over the weekend — looked good last night.
Trevor Story hit the ball well last night.
There are people reacting to this team like they are the 2024 White Sox or 2025 Colorado Rockies and that is simply not true. This is a talented team that got off to a bad start. It certainly might mean they win 87 games now and never recover because those losses are all banked, while the Yankees banked 8 wins. And you know what, that’s fine. That’s a reasonable outcome. That’s not dropping 120 games and having 15 wins in July.
Baseball is a marathon and not a sprint, right?
You know what else people say about baseball at the start of the season, literally all the time, especially when it’s bad? “If this happened in July no one would notice.”
The Red Sox have scattered 3-8 runs over the season dozens of times in the John Henry Era. It happened in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021. 2020, 2019, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, and 2002.
In three of their four World Series years this happened.
Do you remember June 23rd to July 4th 2004? After winning game one, the Sox drop two to Minnesota, take two of three from the Phillies, get swept in New York, and win one of three in Atlanta. July 1st, 2004 was the day of this nonsense.
It felt bad.
And you know what? The Red Sox won 98 games that year!
This is not a prediction that the 2026 team will win 98 games. That is not going to happen But a team with a 3-8 stretch for 11 games sure can come close to 100 wins anyway. We’ve seen it.
Starting the season in a hole does mean “banked losses.” The Red Sox were at 40-29 in 2004 before that 11 game stretch and then sat at 43-37. Definitely a step back but not a “the sky is falling” moment. They would then win five straight to make it 48-37. They didn’t win the division, but claimed the only Wild Card in the league.
Will they ultimately miss the playoffs? This is a hole that might be too much to overcome. But just keep in mind that there are so many more playoff spots now that did not exist for the historical comps. They might lose again this afternoon. But they might win. A 4-8 record when, aside from the Yankees, the divisions is at 5-6 (Baltimore), 5-6 (Tampa), 4-7 (Toronto) is hanging with the pack.
