When you look at Sunderland’s remarkable rise over the last few years, there tends to be a common thread running through every discussion about it – the model.
There’s not really a lot more that can be written about the club’s recruitment strategy. We’ve had our period of understanding it in the second and third tiers of English football. We’ve had moments of frustration, particularly around the end of Tony Mowbray’s tenure and Michael Beale’s brief stint in the Stadium of Light technical area. Now,
in the Premier League, we’ve seen the model bear fruit and, largely, it’s been trusted by most on Wearside.
On the surface, it’s simple. Bring in young, promising talents who are somewhat undervalued. Allow them to shine and develop in red and white, then sell them on for a sizeable profit. Going forward, expect the cycle to continue, with incrementally increasing initial investments and, hopefully, larger selling fees.
£300,000 brought Ross Stewart, and two years later Southampton paid an initial £8 million. Jack Clarke was brought in for an initial fee of around £750,000 and was later sold for almost 20 times that amount. Sunderland likely made around £25 million from their initial investment of £1.5 million in Jobe Bellingham.
It makes sense, it has been shown to work, and when you think of the fees paid for the services of Noah Sadiki, Robin Roefs and Chemsdine Talbi, it will likely provide a sustainable platform for Sunderland to build upon.
If you want to see where it can get you, look at the fees Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth have demanded for some of their top talents, and the level those sides consistently perform at in the Premier League.
But, like Mike Tyson once said: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
Sunderland and their model have received plenty of bloody noses. One of the key factors in Tony Mowbray’s departure from Sunderland was the friction caused by bringing in inexperienced players. Whilst signings such as Bradley Dack were likely brought in to keep the peace, none of Eliezer Mayenda, Nazariy Rusyn, Luís Hemir Semedo or Mason Burstow were ready to replace the departing Loch Ness Drogba.
In came Michael Beale and, whilst he was fighting a losing battle from the beginning of his tenure, he certainly suffered from similar issues to those Mowbray was battling with. Lessons had clearly been learned by the time Régis Le Bris arrived, with Alan Browne, Wilson Isidor and Chris Mepham balancing out the inexperience within the squad, either through age or exposure to senior football.
Sunderland aren’t alone in this either. Last winter, Brighton fans booed their side off the pitch following a draw against Everton, leaving them with only one win in their previous 11 matches. With the arrivals of Jordan Henderson and Danny Welbeck, even Chelsea are seemingly recognising the flaws in signing a hundred teenagers every transfer window.
Whilst this is a more sustainable method of progression than getting Cristiano Ronaldo to clean your boots, clubs are clearly catching on to the need for balance in the age profile of their squads. Reinildo, Granit Xhaka and Thomas Meunier have all been brought in north of the age of 30, indicating Sunderland are aware of that need too.
What annoys me about Chelsea’s recruitment is that, on the surface of it, there appear to be only two options: buy incredibly young or incredibly old. Financially, you can understand this. Players close to their peak age command higher fees and, whilst you can spend £100 million on one midfielder, you can also make five £20 million gambles on younger talent that could demand that higher fee in a few years’ time.
But whilst numbers rarely lie, they don’t always tell the whole story.
The two former Mackems joining Chelsea will provide leadership and experience to what is a bloated squad with what appears to be a disruptive dressing room. We all saw the leadership Xhaka displayed as captain, and think how much players such as Chris Rigg and Noah Sadiki can learn from him.
Ultimately, you need a balanced squad profile. A mix of young, talented players who are hungry to prove themselves, reliable players at peak age, and older heads who can motivate, lead and help with a younger player’s development.
Remarkably, one of the most commonly referenced squad-building frameworks was first coined by Lee Johnson. Yes, that one.
The ‘4-8-8-4’ rule splits a squad into four brackets, and the ideal proportion of players in each:
Breakthrough Players (4): Players aged 16-20 – promising talents.
Pre-Peak (8): Players aged 21-25 who are approaching their prime and will soon provide either competitive or financial value.
Peak (8): Players aged 25-30 who consistently perform and provide the physical and performance base of the team.
Twilight (4): Players aged 31 and over. Experienced senior leaders and winners who help shape dressing-room culture and assist player development.
Say what you want about Johnson, but it makes sense and provides a valuable framework through which to profile our squad – and one that I’ll be using.
For this initial look at our squad, I’m discounting players I don’t think are likely to feature at all next season (for example, Aji Alese, Alan Browne and Jenson Seelt), as well as players still in the Academy, such as Timur Tutierov and Tom Proctor.
What you can see is that, whilst we generally think of our squad as a young one, the majority of it is actually built around players who are about to enter their prime. I would also argue that many of our pre-peak players are still towards the younger end of that age bracket.
The balance of older heads is another positive and, given that all of them have defensive responsibilities, it’s encouraging that our most experienced players occupy positions where mistakes are often punished most severely.
Where the squad appears to be lacking is in players currently in their peak years. This isn’t hugely surprising given our recruitment strategy over the last few seasons, but it is something that may need monitoring if we want to continue competing. I’m not suggesting an overhaul of the recruitment model, but the odd signing aged 26 or older would benefit us.
Whilst Dan Ashworth’s tenure under INEOS at Old Trafford was short-lived, last season highlighted how much Newcastle lacked his joined-up thinking at the top of their recruitment department. During his brief spell at Manchester United, Ashworth stated that the squad’s average age needed reducing by 1.5 years.
At the time, United ranked as the ninth-oldest squad in the league with an average age of 26.1. Of the players I’ve shown above, the average age is 25.5 years – not quite where Ashworth would have wanted it, but certainly moving in that direction.
Simply looking at the age of our squad isn’t enough. Whilst leadership in the dressing room is important, experience is also needed on the pitch. Likewise, whilst young prospects can shine in training, only competitive minutes truly help them develop. In reality, we need to assess both the age profile of the squad and the minutes those players receive.
For reference, our overall squad last season was the second-youngest in the Premier League behind Chelsea. However, the average age of our starting XI ranked as the fourth-youngest in the division.
For this exercise, I’ve excluded Ta Bi, Angulo, Patterson and Adingra, who all departed in January. What I think it demonstrates is just how important some of the younger members of our squad already are. Whilst you’d expect Robin Roefs to accumulate plenty of minutes, only Enzo Le Fée played more than Noah Sadiki. Considering Sadiki also missed matches due to AFCON, that speaks not only to his quality, but also to his importance to the team.
As shown earlier, we have relatively few players currently in their peak years, but those we do have are all key contributors, underlining just how valuable that age bracket is. Again, it suggests that one or two additions in that range could really strengthen the side.
With Mukiele, Ballard and Alderete making up three-quarters of those peak-age players, you could also argue there is scope to take a gamble on a young centre-back who can learn from, and provide rotational cover for, that trio. In fact, our defence does lean towards the older side, so if there is a promising academy option, they could really benefit from exposure to that experience.
The Academy of Light has produced some excellent talents over the years. Pre-season showed that, with Timur Tutierov, Trey Ogunsuyi and Finn Geragusian, we have some exciting attacking prospects who could feature in red and white in the future.
Whilst the Europa League provides more opportunities for those players to gain exposure to senior football, you could argue that a Danny Welbeck-esque veteran striker could provide valuable guidance to those lads, while also benefiting Brian Brobbey and Wilson Isidor.
Ultimately, Ghisolfi & Co. have a plan. They certainly know more than I do and, in signing Thomas Meunier, I’m sure they know he brings more to the table than simply value for money.
I’d like to see a few more players brought in around the 26-28 age bracket, allowing our younger squad members some respite from the pressure and physical demands of playing week in, week out in the Premier League.
A player’s development is very rarely linear. For every Lamine Yamal or Cole Palmer who takes off like a rocket, there is an Alejandro Garnacho who bursts onto the scene before falling out of favour.
We’re very likely to see dips in form from some of our younger players, but we’re also likely to see purple patches.
There’s a lot to be said for a known quantity, both in profile and consistency of performance. Whilst the youthful recruitment model has been hugely successful for Sunderland so far, sometimes age before beauty makes perfect sense.
