There are no words that can be said to cushion the blow of losing to a divisional opponent by 30 points. There are no words that can shield Atlanta Falcons fans from the embarrassment of losing to a floundering
Carolina Panthers team without scoring a single point (the only other time that happened was a 38-0 thrashing from Cam Newton in 2015). But some worthwhile lessons were learned about this team that otherwise would not have been if Sunday had turned out differently. So, let’s go ahead and get into them:
1) Welcome to the NFL, Michael Penix
Up until Sunday, there had been moments where Michael Penix, Jr. had looked like he had less than a full season under his belt, but he had a knack for avoiding negative plays and keeping the offense moving like it needed to be. In fact, through the first two weeks, Penix, Jr. had the eighth-best success rate of any QB in the NFL, stuck between reigning MVP Josh Allen and San Francisco QB Mac Jones, who led the 49ers to a victory over the New Orleans Saints while throwing for over 275 yards and three touchdowns.
But Sunday, Penix got his true ‘Welcome to the NFL’ moment. Ejiro Evero dared Penix to attack the middle of the field, but the young gunslinger continued to work outside the numbers, leading to both of his interceptions on the day.
Teams have also forced Penix to keep his attempts closer to the line of scrimmage. Penix’s 5.1% Deep Pass Percentage is fourth-lowest, in front of only Drake Maye, Cam Ward, and Mac Jones. Two quarterbacks without vertical threats in the passing game, and a backup quarterback brought in to settle the tide until Brock Purdy returns.
Maybe against an aggressive scheme like Dan Quinn’s, Penix may have a chance to get back on track, but Penix has to prove that he can make a team pay for being too aggressive. He has to let it be known that every blade of grass is open for business. Missing open receivers over the middle of the field (yes, there were some of them) is something that has to be developed if this offense is to take the necessary steps it needs to be competitive.
But I don’t think there is much to worry about with Penix. Sunday looked rough, but I’m much more interested to see how he bounces back this week.
2) Is this defense good?
Through three weeks, the Atlanta Falcons’ defense is:
- 2nd in yards allowed
- 3rd in yards allowed per play
- 13th in points allowed
- 1st in passing yards allowed
- 10th in rushing yards allowed
- 5th in EPA/play allowed
- 8th in QB Pressure%
- T-10th in Sacks
So, take this with a grain of salt, as the quarterbacks the Falcons have faced are Baker Mayfield in week one against a new defense without Chris Godwin, a floundering J.J. McCarthy, and Bryce Young.
But the flashes seen from this defense are really tantalizing. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Mike Hughes was targeted 8 times on Sunday, allowing only three receptions for 13 yards and a QB rating of 45.8 when targeted. Dee Alford was targeted three times, allowing only one reception for nine yards and a 42.8 rating.
The rookies Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman were picked on a bit underneath, as Bowman allowed four receptions on all four of his targets on the day. Watts allowed two receptions on his three targets, including a key fourth-down pick play where Watts got caught up on a pick play between Tetairoa McMillan and Hunter Renfrow to keep Carolina’s opening drive alive. The drive ultimately ended in a touchdown.
Overall, though, the Falcons forced Young to get the ball out quickly, and that, at times, disrupted the flow of the Panthers’ offense. Out of his 24 attempts, 13 of Young’s attempts were out of his hand in under 2.5 seconds, leading to -0.24 EPA/dropback, the eighth-worst mark on Sunday. Atlanta blitzed him on 69.2% of those dropbacks.
3) N0t-so-Special Teams
What else is there that needs to be said about the special teams?
Outside of the muffed punt, the Atlanta Falcons’ drives started on:
- Their own 27-yard line
- Their own 26-yard line
- Their own 10-yard line
- Their own 20-yard line
- Their own 21-yard line
- Their own 14-yard line
- Their own 10-yard line
- Their own 20-yard line
- Their own 10-yard line
- Their own 22-yard line
Outside of a gift from the Panthers, the Falcons, on average, started at their own 18-yard line.
The offense was abysmal, let’s make that clear. But, they did not get much help from their special teams to get anything jump-started. Multiple missed opportunities in the kick-return department, tackling your own returner in punt return, even Bradley Pinion had a rough punt on the day. Overall, the special teams unit was a net negative for the field-position battle.
Then, of course, there’s John Parker Romo, who solidified the shutout for the Falcons with two missed field goals from 55 and 49 yards out. So, the quest for a new kicker continues as Ben Sauls comes in on Atlanta’s practice squad to compete with Parker Romo.
What a mess.
4) This offense has no identity
Well, I guess that’s not entirely true.
Until Penix and the receiving core can get it together, Zac Robinson will continue to spam the Bijan Robinson button until the mechanism breaks.
Robinson is tied with Rams WR Puka Nacua for the longest active streak of 100+ yards from scrimmage, with four stretching back to last year’s week 18 game against Carolina.
Outside of that, the Falcons’ offense, which ranks 27th in EPA/play, is missing an identity outside of its superstar running back. Or so I hope.
If the identity is that we’re living in this pistol package for the sake of mirroring the run and pass game, it hasn’t been a fruitful endeavor.
The Falcons are 13th in EPA/rush and 10th in rushing success rate, according to Next Gen Stats. Having a backfield of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, with the multitude of talent in the passing game, and only mustering 14 points a game through three weeks is abysmal.
Zac Robinson has to figure it out sooner rather than later.
5) Sunday is as must-win as must-win can get
The reason this article is being published so late in the week is that I wanted to see the reaction to the Ike Hilliard firing that occurred after the debacle on Sunday. Needless to say, it was a disappointing affair from those in charge.
Something as simple as being on the same page about how to approach the media about a firing seems to be too much for this regime to handle.
But, hey, winning cures everything, right?
So, as long as the Falcons take care of business against the Washington Commanders on Sunday, everything should be okay, right?
There’s no way that Atlanta allows a Marcus Mariota-led team to come into Mercedes-Benz Stadium and drop the Falcons to 0-3 in the NFC, right? Or even if Jayden Daniels plays, there’s no way the Commanders make it five straight wins against the Falcons in five straight years, right?
There’s just no way…right?
