Week 10 featured six underdogs pulling off upsets – Miami, New York (AFC), Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Houston, and Philadelphia spoiled a lot of predictions. Week 11 has huge ramifications has it has a staggering
9 divisional games out of the 15 game slate. Division crowns won’t be won this week but a win can certainly get a team one week closer to locking it up. Here are my Week 11 predictions…
Week 10 picks: 8-6, Cumulative picks: 90-57-1 (.611)
Week 11 Matchups & Predictions
(Thursday) New York Jets @ New England Patriots, 8:15 PM EST
The Jets are winners of two straight. The Patriots have won 7 in a row. One of these streaks will end and I’m pretty confident the home team will prevail.
Pick: Patriots win 26-13
Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins (Madrid, Spain) 9:30 AM EST
The Commanders season ended when Jayden Daniels got hurt. Meanwhile, the Dolphins win games that they have no business winning. I guess Miami is the better team in this game with all the injuries Washington has endured.
Pick: Dolphins win 27-20
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons, 1:00 PM EST
The Falcons desperately need a win after losing four straight. I think the Panthers could give them issues. But I’m betting on Bijan Robinson at home delivering a win for the Falcons who currently are set to give their 9th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to the Rams.
Pick: Falcons win 27-23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills, 1:00 PM EST
The Bills win this game and here is why. 1) It’s in Buffalo and Tampa Bay will be away from the sunshine and warm weather. 2) The Buccaneers don’t need this game nearly as bad as Buffalo does. Buffalo is holding onto the 6th overall seed in the AFC playoff race. But a loss would allow the Kansas City Chiefs to slither their way back into the picture.
Pick: Bills win 30-23
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans, 1:00 PM EST
I’ll take Demeco Ryans and his strong defense vs. Cam Ward and the 32nd ranked offense.
Pick: Texans win 23-10
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings, 1:00 PM EST
Brian Flores dialed up a great game plan two weeks ago to upset the Lions. I think he does a similar job here against the Bears. The Vikings need this win to keep pace in the NFC standings. Meanwhile, the Bears have had a soft schedule as of late playing the Giants, Bengals, Saints, Commanders, and Raiders within the 6 weeks.
Pick: Vikings win 26-20
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants, 1:00 PM EST
Since their undefeated talk after Week 2, the Packers are just 3-3-1. Jordan Love has not taken the next step in his career. He relies too much on throwing off script (trying to be Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers) rather than throwing to the intended space at the intended time.
With that being said, Green Bay has to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt. They’ll eeek out a win at MetLife Stadium.
Pick: Packers win 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 1:00 PM EST
The Steelers continue to be up and down. The Bengals got the better of them the first time. There’s no way they let that happen again for a home game. Not to mention, the Ravens are lurking with Lamar Jackson healthy now. Steelers need this win.
Pick: Steelers win 27-21
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 PM EST
The Jaguars offense looked promising to start the year but they have cooled considerably since then. Trevor Lawrence is underperforming at the quarterback position and his wide receivers are not helping his cause either. Meanwhile, the Chargers need a win to keep pace in a crowded AFC wild card race.
Pick: Chargers win 28-20
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 PM EST
Both the 49ers and Cardinals suffered beatdowns in Week 10. San Francisco has the better coach, so I’m going to lean with Shanahan to get a win to stay in the NFC wild card race.
Pick: 49ers win 31-23
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 PM EST
All eyes will be on Seahawks-Rams this week. The winner will take sole possession of first place in the NFC West, and will also be the No. 2 seed in the NFC standings. Both teams are explosive on offense and both defenses are considered top 5 in the league.
Rams offense: 27.9 (3rd)
Seahawks offense: 30.6 (3rd)
Rams defense: 17.0 (2nd)
Seahawks defense: 19.1 (5th)
For what it’s worth, in his 3 meetings against MacDonald, McVay has put up 31, 26, and 25 points against MacDonald’s starting defenses. The 31 points was when MacDonald was a defensive coordinator for Baltimore in 2023. The 25 points in 2024 was when the Rams elected to rest their offensive starters and played the game with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
This Seattle defense is better than any other defense MacDonald has had. But a key component here is what the Buccaneers did in Week 5 and the Texans in Week 7. McVay’s offense is better than anything Seattle has seen yet. Seattle played TB and SF earlier in the year. Tampa Bay is only 11th in PPG and San Francisco is 11th in yards per game.
Pick: Rams win 27-24
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns, 4:25 PM EST
With Lamar Jackson back and healthy, this seems like a no brainer.
Pick: Ravens win 31-17
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos, 4:25 PM EST
Kansas City cannot afford to slip up anymore to keep their AFC Conference record tiebreakers. It will be a challenge to win at Mile High but Mahomes and Co. get a crucial win.
Pick: Chiefs win 20-17
(Sunday Night Football) Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 PM EST
Another pivotal NFC game between the current NFC North and NFC East divisional leaders. This will be an interesting litmus test for Jared Goff against Vic Fangio. It should be a physical test with the defenses. It’ll likely come down to which quarterback plays better.
Pick: Lions win 23-20
(Monday Night Football) Dallas Cowboys @ Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 PM
Week 11 ends with a disappointing matchup. It’s highly unlikely for the Cowboys to chase down the Eagles in the NFC East but they remain the second best team in the division.
Pick: Cowboys win 37-30 Teams on Bye: Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints
What are your locks for this week? Which upset do you like most? Include all your game picks in the comments below.
