This will probably end up being a series of posts because there is more than one way to rate your general manager’s drafting. In this edition, we are looking only at the Texans drafts. Nick Caserio has five drafts in the books, so it seems like a perfect opportunity to look back. We will look at these drafts through two prisms. The first will be cold and hard numbers. That’s the way I like best. It removes our own emotions from the situation. Obviously, we will also look at the number of starters
and contributors each draft has produced as well.
Let’s start with the data. Pro Football Reference has a state they call WAV (Weighted Career Approximate Value). In this stat, they give every player a certain amount of points for being regular contributors, starters, Pro Bowl performers, and of course later Hall of Fame performers. A ten year starter that attended several Pro Bowls might be worth as much as 100 points. An occasional contributor for that same decade might be worth closer to 20 or 25.
There are two rules we need to consider when looking at the average scores. First, skill position players tend to have higher scores than non-skill position players. So, on defense your edge rushers and key defensive backs might rate higher than an interior defensive lineman or linebacker. On offense, the quarterbacks have the most opportunities for points, followed by running backs and wide receivers. Secondly, you obviously accrue points for each season you play, so the seasons further in the rearview mirror will naturally have more points than the recent ones. We will apply a multiplier (more accurately a divider) to normalize the data. So, below you get the rank order in average WAV per player per year in order.
2023 Draft
AVG WAV: 13.67
Weighted AVG: 4.56
Key Contributors: C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson, Tank Dell, Henry To’o’ot’o
To prove the point, Anderson has only four more WAV than Stroud even though he has been a Pro Bowler for two years and was a finalist for defensive player of the year. Stroud did have the one Pro Bowl and Dell and To’o’ot’o have been starters for at least a portion of their careers. When you get four starters out of a draft you have done extremely well.
2022 Draft
AVG WAV: 13.63
Weighted AVG: 3.41
Key Contributors: Derek Stingley, Jalen Pitre, Christian Harris, Dameon Pierce
This one might forever be known as the what if draft. Harris and Pierce got off to impressive starts, but they fell off a cliff and are no longer Texans. Stingley and Pitre were Pro Bowl players last season and Stingley was the season before as well. Stingley is not quite as valuable as Anderson defensively, but you could argue he has been just as good at his position as Anderson is at his.
2021 Draft
AVG WAV: 15.80
Weighted AVG: 3.16
Key Contributors: Davis Mills, Nico Collins, Roy Lopez
This one probably surprises some people and that makes sense because they did not have first or second round selections. However, when you have only five players in the draft, the average gets bumped when one of them strikes gold. Collins was the gold from this draft as he has similar career ratings as Stroud and Anderson. Mills was obviously a starter for two seasons, so he rates fairly well. Lopez has continued to play in the league after leaving Houston, so his 22 WAV is a reflection of his longevity more than his actual brilliance.
2024 Draft
AVG WAV: 5.15
Weighted AVG: 2.93
key Contributors: Kamari Lassiter, Blake Fisher, Calen Bullock
Calling Fisher a key contributor demonstrates the lack of depth from this particular class. Cade Stover and Jawhar Jordan have also made some contributions over the last two seasons, so it isn’t a complete waste land. However, you did get two very solid starters in Lassiter and Bullock. Lassiter was a Pro Bowl level performer last season and if he plays that way again he will be going to that event this year.
2025 Draft
AVG WAV: 2.22
Weighted AVG: 2.22
Key Contributors: Aireontae Ersery, Jayden Higgins, Woody Marks, Jaylin Noel
Thus, we get to the crux of the argument. Was the 2025 draft really the worst draft or is it just that much more difficult to break into the rotation for these young players? This is why we do the weighted averages. They had only one season. Ersery looks like a multiple year starter in the making and Higgins has a chance to break out as a number two type of wide receiver. That alone would make this draft a solid one, but when you throw in Marks you have something there. He might not technically be a starter this season, but he will get heavy use. Noel might be in the same boat.
We could also break down these drafts based on the number of starters and contributors they produced. For our purposes, contributors will be defined as players that play somewhere between a third to half of their team’s snaps on offense or defense. I don’t mean to denigrate special teams, but we have to draw the line somewhere. Once we look at the drafts that way we can begin to get a handle on what to expect from this particular draft
2021 Draft: 1 starter, 2 contributors
2022 Draft: 2 starters, 2 contributors
2023 Draft: 4 starters, 3 contributors
2024 Draft: 2 starters, 3 contributors
2025 Draft: 3 starters, 2 contributors
I am labeling Marks as a starter for now because he operated like one last season. If we look at the numerical averages we see 12 starters in five drafts and 12 contributors in those same drafts. That is an average of two starters and two contributors. Based on past history, that is what we can expect from this next draft. Obviously, it will be harder because all of those 12 starters are still here while most of the contributors are still here. There are fewer spots to fill, so maybe an expectation of three starters AND contributors is more appropriate.
Some people are overly optimistic and some overly pessimistic. I tend to fall towards the latter group while other writers here are much more optimistic. Some think EVERY single draftee will be a heavy contributor. That just isn’t realistic based on the available information, but as we can see, the 2023 draft almost produced that, so I suppose there is always hope.
