The Green Bay Packers (4-2) bring a three-game win streak into Detroit (3-2), with the Lions coming off their bye. The Lions have one of the NFL’s best offenses and one of its worst defenses. They score 32.8 points per game and allow 29.6, and the Over has hit in all five of their games. This is the best offense Green Bay has seen this season. Detroit’s league-leading pass rush also attacks the Packers’ biggest weakness, a line that has allowed the fourth-most pressures in the NFL.
2025 recap
Detroit went 9-8,
finished last in the NFC North after losing the head-to-head tiebreaker to Minnesota, and missed the playoffs. The offense stayed productive without Ben Johnson, ranking 5th in scoring and 8th in EPA/play, with Jared Goff throwing for 4,564 yards and 34 TDs. Play-calling was unstable: OC John Morton and Dan Campbell shared it, and Campbell took it over from Week 10 on. The defense, in Kelvin Sheppard’s first year as coordinator, allowed 413 points (24.3 per game).
Key losses
- OC John Morton is out.
- RB David Montgomery was traded to Houston for C Juice Scruggs and draft picks.
- OT Taylor Decker was released.
- C Graham Glasgow was released.
- CB Terrion Arnold was released in July.
- WR Kalif Raymond signed with Chicago.
- QB Teddy Bridgewater retired.
Key additions
- OC Drew Petzing, formerly Arizona’s OC, is calling plays.
- C Cade Mays signed for 3 years, $25M and has replaced Juice Scruggs as the starter.
- RB Isiah Pacheco signed for 1 year, $1.8M.
- WR Greg Dortch signed for 1 year, $1.4M.
- OT Larry Borom signed for 1 year, $2M.
- CB Roger McCreary, DE D.J. Wonnum, S Chuck Clark and LB Damone Clark also signed.
- LB Devin White signed but is now on IR.
- OT Blake Miller was a 1st-round pick (No. 17).
- Edge Derrick Moore was a 2nd-round pick.
- LB Jimmy Rolder was a 4th-round pick.
- CB Keith Abney II and WR Kendrick Law were 5th-round picks.
- Kelvin Sheppard remains defensive coordinator.
Efficiency, 2026 through Week 6
Lions offense
- EPA/play: 0.16 (3rd)
- EPA/dropback: 0.28 (2nd)
- EPA/rush: -0.02 (~8th)
- Success rate: 50.3% (2nd)
- Points per game: 32.8 (2nd)
Lions defense
- EPA/play allowed: 0.12 (32nd)
- EPA/dropback allowed: 0.20 (~28th)
- EPA/rush allowed: -0.02 (~22nd)
- Success rate allowed: 47.1% (~28th)
- Points allowed per game: 29.6 (30th)
- Passing yards and passing TDs allowed: both 32nd
- Sacks: 20 (1st)
Packers offense
- EPA/play: -0.06 (17th)
- EPA/dropback: 0.07 (~11th)
- EPA/rush: -0.30 (32nd)
- Success rate: 39.3%
Packers defense
- EPA/play allowed: -0.11 (5th)
- EPA/dropback allowed: -0.16 (tied 3rd)
- EPA/rush allowed: -0.04 (~21st)
- Success rate allowed: 43.0%
First five games
- W 31-30 (OT) vs. NO: won in overtime, but scored only 3 points on their next nine first-quarter drives after an early TD.
- L 31-41 at BUF: lost a shootout.
- W 31-24 vs. NYJ: back on track at home.
- L 26-32 at CAR: another loss on the road.
- W 45-21 at ARI: Goff went 19-of-30 for 279 yards with 3 TDs and ran for another. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 151 yards and 2 TDs, and Jameson Williams caught 2 TDs. The defense forced three-and-outs on Arizona’s first five drives.
- Week 6: bye.
Keys for Green Bay
- Protect Love. Detroit leads the league with 20 sacks and ranks 2nd in quick pressures and in pressure with a four-man rush. The Packers have allowed 97 pressures (4th most) and the fastest pressures in the league. Quick game and max protection matter more here than anywhere this season.
- Attack a bad secondary. Detroit is 32nd in passing yards and passing TDs allowed. Kerby Joseph is out, and Brian Branch is returning from an Achilles injury on a limited snap count. Matthew Golden (104 yards vs. Dallas) and Christian Watson should get chances downfield.
- Set the edge against Gibbs. Detroit runs outside zone on 45.6% of its runs, and Gibbs has 504 rushing yards. Green Bay’s run defense has given up 100-plus yards three times, including 242 to Atlanta.
- Start fast. Detroit has scored only 10 first-quarter points all season. An early lead takes away the Lions’ comeback script.
- Hold up in the secondary. Goff ranks 2nd in EPA per dropback, and Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are all threats. The Packers’ pass defense (3rd in EPA per dropback, fewest explosive passes allowed) is its strength, but it hasn’t faced an offense like this one.
- Stay clean. The Packers have the most penalty yards on deep plays in the league. In a game projected for 53.5 points, giving away possessions or field position decides it.
Injuries to watch: For Green Bay, Micah Parsons (PUP), Edgerrin Cooper (IR) and Javon Hargrave are out. Jordan Love (back), Watson and Golden were limited in practice but are expected to play. For Detroit, Kerby Joseph is out, and Rock Ya-Sin is questionable.
