After a demoralizing loss a week ago, the Dallas Cowboys will look to bounce back on Sunday as they face off against the Indianapolis Colts.
While the Colts do have a 2-6 record, they do some things well that may cause issues for Dallas. With that thought in mind, here are three causes for concern in Indianapolis.
1) Colts Rushing Attack
In what has been a disastrous season, one thing the Indianapolis Colts have done consistently well is run the ball. Led by All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor, who may be entering his last
game as a Colt, Indy has been one of the league’s better running teams.
The Colts have recorded 100 or more rushing yards in six of their last eight contests, including three games over 125. Indy is fourth in the league in offensive rush EPA (-0.002) and ninth in rush success rate(43.1%).
Before last week’s disaster performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Taylor was on an absolute tear. From Weeks 4 through 7, the star runner recorded 329 rushing yards on 74 carries and four touchdowns. Those numbers come out to a full-season pace of 1,398 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns.
If the Cowboys want to beat the Colts, they’ll need to contain Taylor and Indy’s run game. Dallas’ defense has been the third-worst run defense in terms of rush EPA (-0.020) while also allowing the second-most rushing Y/A (5.0).
If the Cowboys play as poorly against the run as they have all season long and let Taylor and the Colts’ running game get rolling, it’s going to be a long day for their defense.
2) Indianapolis Third-Down Defense
This season, we’ve seen just how important it is for a defense to be strong on third down. While Dallas has been by far the league’s worst defensive unit on the most important down in football, the Colts have been one of the best. Indy has held opponents to a 32.6% third-down conversion rate this season, the seventh-best in the league.
In five of Indy’s last six games, their defense has held opponents to a third-down conversion rate of 36% or lower, including three games at 30% or better.
3rd Down Conv.
HOU 4/11
WAS 2/15
PIT 4/11
TEN 3/10
MIN 3/11
The Cowboys offense will face a big challenge this week in extending drives and moving the ball downfield. Last week, Dallas converted six of 16 third-down attempts against the Arizona Cardinals. They’ll need to execute better offensively this week to get that conversion percentage higher against a stingy Colts defense.
3) The Anthony Richardson Factor
This season has been a disaster for Colts starting quarterback Daniel Jones. The veteran signal-caller has thrown just five touchdown passes to nine interceptions, turning the ball over at least once in seven of the Colts’ eight games. Jones has looked even worse as the season has worn on, recording five interceptions and a 59.2 Passer Rating over Indy’s last three games.
Given his performance over that span, it’s no surprise the Colts are 0-3 in those matchups. The Colts are 2-6 and, after trading away two of their best players, with a third likely to follow, have no chance of competing for a playoff spot. They have nothing to lose, and if Jones struggles early this week, there’s a good chance Indy could pull the trigger and bring in backup quarterback Anthony Richardson.
While Richardson’s NFL career has been fairly disastrous to date, he is extremely physically talented and could bring a different element to the table if the Colts put him in the game. We saw Dallas’ defense meltdown last week when the Cardinals made a mid-game quarterback change; it’s fair to worry that history will repeat itself if Indy follows suit on Sunday.
