The Michigan Wolverines will take on Howard in the Round of 64 on Thursday in Buffalo, New York, officially kicking off the 2026 NCAA Tournament. They opened as the clear favorites to make it to Indianapolis out of the Midwest region (-130 on FanDuel), and they are now the co-favorites to win the National Championship Game (+360) along with Arizona, both right ahead of Duke (+370).
There are a few strong teams Michigan will potentially have to get past in the Midwest Region, but as it currently stands,
the Wolverines probably have the easiest path to the Final Four compared to the other No. 1 seeds.
Here is how we think the Midwest Region will shake out.
Round of 64
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Howard (Buffalo, Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS)
Only twice has a 16-seed taken down a 1-seed, and Thursday shouldn’t present a chance to make it three times. Michigan will make it to the Round of 32 with ease.
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis (Buffalo, Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS)
Saint Louis is a really intriguing pick over Georgia. The Billikins run an extremely effective offense, sitting third in effective field goal percentage in the country at 59.7 percent. However, winning in March is about pace and making few mistakes, and Georgia came into March as the No. 3 scoring offense in the country and No. 10 in pace. The Bulldogs should be able to win, led by star guard Jeremiah Wilkinson, who averages 17.0 PPG.
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron (Tampa, Friday, 12:40 p.m. ET, TruTV)
Akron is another interesting pick to upset a 5-seed, only losing once this calendar year. The Zips make 11 threes per game, and they have a nine-man rotation, showcasing strong depth. However, they are also the shortest team in the tourney. Ultimately, if Texas Tech guard Christian Anderson is healthy (18.9 PPG, 7.6 APG) and Donovan Atwell continues to be one of the best shooters in America, Texas Tech takes this one.
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra (Tampa, Friday, 3:15 p.m. ET, TruTV)
Alabama star guard Aden Holloway was arrested days before the tournament on a felony drug charge. While the loss of him will affect the Tide down the road, Alabama will still have the best player on the floor in Labaron Philon Jr. (21.7 PPG). Hofstra does present some size, led by 7-footer Sila Sunday, but the Tide’s high-scoring offense will be tough to stop. Alabama wins this one.
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (OH) or SMU (Philadelphia, Friday, 4:25 p.m. ET, TBS)
Miami (OH) took the hearts of college basketball fans this season, going a perfect 31-0 in the regular season before losing in the MAC quarterfinals to UMass. Nonetheless, Tennessee is a tough draw. The Volunteers play with a high defensive intensity, are the nation’s top offensive rebounding team and are led by former Maryland guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie (18 PPG, 5.5 APG). Take Tennessee to defeat the Red Hawks.
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Wright State (Philadelphia, Friday, 1:50 p.m. ET, TBS)
Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the country and has Ugonna Onyenso inside, who set the ACC Tournament record with 21 blocks across three games. Wright State has had strong success when the offense has clicked this season, going 16-0 when scoring 80 or more points. But against Virginia, its offense will surely be slowed down, leading to a victory for the Cavaliers.
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara (St. Louis, Friday, 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
Santa Clara is big and has positional size at almost every position. The Broncos are extremely efficient from three (seven players with more than 30 makes) and they have some strong wins, defeating Saint Mary’s twice. Kentucky is a tough matchup, but six losses in its last 10 games are a major cause for concern. Santa Clara gets the upset.
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State (St. Louis, Friday, 2:50 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Cyclones are among the nation’s best defensive teams, scoring almost 20 points per game off turnovers. Milan Moncilovic leads the nation in three-point percentage (49.6) and averages 17.1 PPG. Tennessee State did finish the season strong, making it to the tournament for the first time since 1994, but Iowa State should handle the Tigers with ease.
Round of 32
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 8 Georgia
Michigan is the better team in every category and should take down Georgia. The Wolverines have more size, a better star player in Yaxel Lendeborg and will be more disciplined. Take Michigan to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
This is where the loss of Aden Holloway will hurt the Crimson Tide. Texas Tech is obviously not as good of a team without JT Toppin, who tore his ACL in mid February, but Anderson has been playing at another level and has led the Red Raiders to big wins over Arizona and Iowa State. Take Texas Tech to win.
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 6 Tennessee
Virginia can protect the paint and the three-point line, matching Tennessee on the offensive glass. The Volunteers got back Nate Ament, who returned for the SEC Tournament, but turnover issues and foul trouble could lead them to struggle against Virginia. We’ll take Virginia to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
Santa Clara has talent, but Iowa State is built for March. In addition to Milan Moncilovic, the Cyclones have Joshua Jefferson, one of the most versatile and talented point forwards in the game (16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 4.9 APG). Iowa State will move on.
Sweet 16
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
Just like the loss of Holloway hurt Alabama in the second round, the loss of Toppin for Texas Tech will end the Red Raiders’ run against Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen. The Wolverines have struggled to shoot beyond the arc in recent weeks, but their defense is still one of the best in the country and the presence of Aday Mara will prevent Anderson from getting to the rim consistently. Take Michigan.
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Virginia
Iowa State is one of the few teams in the country that can match Virginia on offense and defense. Virginia’s last two losses to Duke can be a blueprint for the Cyclones, balancing strong three-point shooting with suffocating perimeter defense. If Iowa State can force turnovers and hit threes, the Cyclones will head to the Elite Eight.
Elite Eight
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Not having L.J. Cason will be a struggle for Michigan to match Iowa State, but the Wolverines’ offense still has another gear in them to push past Iowa State and make it to Indianapolis. Not to mention, Michigan shoots 65 percent at the rim while its opponents shoot just 50 percent. Teams that shoot the three at a high clip have given the Wolverines fits this season, but as was the case against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan still has found ways to win. The Midwest is Dusty May’s region to lose. Take the Wolverines to advance to the Final Four.
