Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight strikers Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy will duel this weekend (Sat., Jan. 31, 2026) inside Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia for UFC 325.
It’s unfortunately
quite difficult to get a full read on where Fiziev belongs in 2026. The Muay Thai ace rose up the ranks from 2019-2022, but the last three years have been shaky. He lost a pair of competitive fights with Justin Gaethje and suffered an early knee injury in his main event versus Mateusz Gamrot, a trio of losses that cost him all momentum.
He’s rebounded versus Ignacio Bahamondes, but can 32-year-old Fiziev still contend?
Ruffy, conversely, enters this matchup following his first UFC loss, a one-sided drubbing at the hands of Benoit Saint Denis. Prior to that defeat, Ruffy was on a rocket ship to the top, but his actually resume is a bit thin given this is only his fifth UFC fight. Like Fiziev, this bout should tell us a lot about where he stands at 155 pounds and whether he should be considered as a contender or action fighter.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Fiziev vs. Ruffy Betting Odds
- Rafael Fiziev victory: -102
- Rafael Fiziev via TKO/KO/DQ: +480
- Rafael Fiziev via submission: +2000
- Rafael Fiziev via decision: +210
- Mauricio Ruffy victory: -125
- Mauricio Ruffy via TKO/KO/DQ: +320
- Mauricio Ruffy via submission: +2000
- Mauricio Ruffy via decision: +230
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Fiziev Wins
Fiziev has been practicing Muay Thai for most of his life and competed there quite a bit before transitioning to MMA. He’s carried his striking style into the cage quite well, making use of explosive combinations and powerful kicks to stay ahead of his opposition.
Eight of his 13 victories come via knockout.
Despite this being a collision of strikers, there’s a clear difference in styles here. Fiziev is Muay Thai through and through, whereas Ruffy is that almost uniquely MMA mix of karate and boxing. Both stances/styles offer different strengths and weaknesses, and whichever man dictates the type of exchange will find more consistent success.
In the case of Fiziev, he wants to deny a boxing match and punish his foe with kicks. The karate-style stance means that the lead leg is especially vulnerable to calf kicks, and being turned so side-on allows for round kicks towards the open side of the body to land with devastating impact as well. Fiziev has to box and counter just enough to keep Ruffy honest, but breaking his foe down with kicks is his actual path to a clear-cut victory.
How Ruffy Wins
Ruffy is a tremendously slick striker with serious power. He puts together combinations beautifully and has exceptional timing on his counter punches, which can easily shut off the lights. All but one of his 12 professional victories come via knockout, and he really does look like a young Conor McGregor at times with his movement and overall fluidity.
The section above is primarily about the weaknesses and limitations to the karate-influenced stance and style, so let’s flip the equation and talk about how to defeat classic Muay Thai. Fiziev is much more stationary and grounded. He wants to explore forward with counters or kicks, and these reactions can be baited and punished with an active feint game.
Think back to when TJ Dillashaw fought Renan Barao and confounded the (at the time) dominant champion with false starts and angles. Barao ended up stuck in the mud and swinging at a man who wasn’t there — that’s what can happen when a Muay Thai stance gets flustered. If Ruffy is taking angles, staying mobile, and dulling the senses with feints, he should be able to enter the pocket on his terms and create powerful connections.
Fiziev vs. Ruffy Prediction
This is a great matchup, exciting precisely because it could go either way. Both men are very talented strikers with distinct advantages, so it’s very much a question of who brings the proper strategy and implements it successfully. What’s especially fun is that even if one man is doing the better work and finding success, the losing man could still change his fortune in a single punch!
The pick ‘em odds make quite a bit of sense this time around.
Taking a step further back and viewing the matchup, I see two men who rely heavily on their speed and athleticism to win fights. They’re accustomed to those advantages and rely upon them, but they’ll be somewhat cancelled out here. With the playing field fairly level, which man’s game is set up to win individual exchanges and minutes of the fight?
