It was a banner week for extensions at the corner of Clark and Addison last week, with news that Nico Hoerner was extended through the 2032 season breaking just days after news of the Pete Crow Armstrong extension. Both of these deals extended two Cubs icons for six more years, but that’s really where the similarities end. While PCA’s deal is a bet that the defensive prodigy in centerfield will continue to improve his plate discipline and value through his age-29 season, the Nico Hoerner extension is a bet on a player
with a lower overall ceiling and a much more reliable floor that could make Hoerner a Cub for life.
I have to take a minute to reflect on how amazing it feels to be able to type the words “Cub for Life.” It’s been a minute since I even believed this was a possibility the Cubs would consider with their players, let alone a possibility that could become a reality. Part of the heartbreak with the Blue Friday trade deadline in 2021 was the realization that none of the heroes from the 2016 World Series team would end their careers with the Cubs aside from David Ross, who retired after Game Seven and World Series MVP Ben Zobrist, who saw his career fizzle out amidst personal issues that pulled him away from the field during a 2019 season that ended with a whimper for the Cubs.
Speaking of 2019, that was the year Nico Hoerner debuted for the Cubs. He had just finished his second season in the minors, putting together a solid campaign in Double-A when late season injuries led to him being called up during a playoff race to start at shortstop. He was certainly young for the level with zero Triple-A at bats, but the poise was evident immediately. Hoerner demonstrated his value both defensively and with a plus contact tool almost immediately. That value led to two extensions, the first was a three-year $35 million deal that bought out the end of Hoerner’s arbitration years and tacked on the 2026 season. The second is a six year $141 million that will see him in blue pinstripes until at least 2032.
The defense is elite. Since moving to second base full time in 2023, Nico Hoerner is third in MLB in total outs above average. You can see the top ten players by that metric below:
That defense has allowed the Cubs to roster a pitch-to-contact staff that generates fewer whiffs because balls hit on the ground up the middle or to the right of second have a high probability of being outs with Nico at the keystone.
His hit tool is also elite and has improved over time. You can clearly see this in looking at Nico’s wOBA by year according to FanGraphs:
As a reminder, wOBA is a fancy on-base metric that gives hitters more value for extra base hits than singles or walks. It’s notable that Hoerner has been at or above league average every season since 2021, particularly since this metric punishes him a bit for his lack of power. What it’s taking away from Nico in power it’s rewarding him for in consistent extra base power. It’s a hit tool that honestly reminds me of a 2020’s version of Mark Grace, a player who posted low strikeout rates with doubles power for for the better part of 16 seasons. I use the “2020’s version” caveat because Nico strikes out almost twice as much as Grace and is consistently about 30-50 points lighter in terms of his ability to get on base. The similarities generally derive from both players’ ability to make contact with extra base power that is light on home runs.
Obviously the 2026 spike is something for fans to hope on, but deserves small sample size caveat the size of Texas. Hoerner probably hasn’t added 60 points of wOBA this season, but he is likely to provide slightly above league average on-base and power ability. Combined with an elite glove, it’s worth every penny of the $141 million six-year contract he agreed to with the Cubs.
