Ahead of this year’s training camp, New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel explained that he was looking at his team’s performances in three categories. There is the good, the bad, and, as he called
it, the s—t that gets you beat.
Against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, there was a lot more good than bad. Otherwise, Vrabel’s team would not have been able to celebrate a 23-20 upset of the unbeaten 8.5-point favorites on the road. Still, if the coach wants to look at the Patriots like that, who are we to disagree? So, let’s break down the Week 5 game in exactly that manner.
The good: Defensive resilience
We could mention Drake Maye here. Or Stefon Diggs. Or Andy Borregales.
However, while they were all instrumental in the Patriots’ win over the Bills, the defense also deserves a major shoutout for its performance against arguably the most well-rounded offense in the NFL. Buffalo entered Week 5 having ranked second in scoring (33.3 points/game) and yards (404.0), and first in giveaways (1) and expected points added both per dropback (0.357) and per run (0.091).
While Josh Allen and company performing below expectation played a part in it, the Patriots defense also contributed to the Bills not matching their season averages in any of those categories. When all was said and done, the Bills scored just 22 points on a 363-yard outing, turned the ball over three times, and finished with an EPA per dropback of 0.21 and an EPA per run of only -0.36.
The tone was set from early on. Joshua Farmer recovered a fumble to end the Bills’ first possession, Robert Spillane and Jaylinn Hawkins teamed up to end their third in the same fashion. In addition, Marcus Jones registered an interception at the New England 19-yard line, while Christian Gonzalez broke up a third down pass that forced the Bills to go for the tie rather than a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
New England was not perfect by any means, and the Bills found themselves in scoring position more often than their final points tally would indicate. However, either through fault of their own or the Patriots rising up to the occasion, they only managed two touchdowns and two field goals on the day.
The Patriots defense had to run head-first into a blizzard on Sunday night. It weathered they storm.
The bad: Antonio Gibson’s injury
Even though he had been on the field for only 52 offensive snaps and 21 on special teams this season before going down with a knee injury in the second quarter on Sunday, Antonio Gibson was a valuable member of the Patriots offense. He was their next man up at running back behind Rhamondre Stevenson, and again entered the top lineup versus Buffalo after yet another lost fumble by the starter (his third on the year).
However, his future looks uncertain after what looked like a serious knee injury. Gibson gingerly walked off the field and after a brief stint in the blue medical tent left for the locker room; he was ruled out almost instantaneously, which is never a good sign.
Considering Stevenson’s ongoing problems holding onto the ball, and rookie TreVeyon Henderson still being quite raw around the edges, losing the veteran for any extended period of time would be a concern. And that’s not even touching on his contributions in the return game: Gibson is ranked fifth in the NFL among qualifying kickoff returners with an average of 28.5 yards per runback, and the only player so far to run a kickoff back for a touchdown.
If the injury is indeed as significant as it appeared to be, he will be missed.
The s—t that gets you beat: Mental errors
When we’re speaking of mental errors here, we are speaking primarily of one thing: unnecessary penalties, of which there were several against the Bills. The total tally looked like this: 10 penalties, of which eight were enforced for a loss of 93 yards (compared to Buffalo’s 15-11-90 line).
The volume was one thing, another was the nature and timing of some of those penalties particularly in the fourth quarter. After going up 20-10, the Patriots gave Josh Allen and the Bills offense 30 free yards on back-to-back plays when backup defensive tackles Cory Durden and Joshua Farmer were flagged for roughing the passer and unnecessary roughness, respectively; that drive might have ended in a Bills touchdown anyway, but New England sure made life easier for its opponent.
The same was true later in the period, when Vederian Lowe was flagged for a false start on 3rd-and-1. Instead of an opportunity to drain some clock, New England moved back five yards and after a scramble resulting in a loss of 2 yards was forced to punt.
In the end, those miscues did not end up costing the team. However, they put additional pressure on the Patriots and are something that needs to be cleaned up — especially given that all three of the culprits are role players who only take the field for limited snaps each game.
