With big weeks by both Ohio State and UCLA, the Big Ten’s NCAA Tournament outlook is a lot cleaner. The conference will have five teams somewhere along the top four seed lines, led by No. 1 seed Michigan, with at least nine teams in the overall field. That number could grow to 11 if any of the bottom-half teams in the conference make a Cinderella run to win the conference tournament, and Indiana forces the committee to make a tougher decision with a deep run of its own, but the Big Ten will definitely
send nine teams to the Big Dance, with a 10th team as the potential cherry on top.
Michigan – No. 1 Seed (No. 2 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 1 Seed (No. 2 overall)
Despite coming into the week with the Big Ten regular season title already wrapped up, the Wolverines were able to gut out two victories to end the season 19-1 in conference play. Michigan fought through a sloppy game (18 turnovers in 65 possessions) to beat Iowa 71-68 on the road in its first game of the season without L.J. Cason available. The Wolverines played a lot cleaner on offense at home against Michigan State, turning it over just 10 times and completing a sweep of the season series against the Spartans with a 90-80 win, powered by Yaxel Lendeborg’s 27-point outing. Michigan will have a triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, playing in the quarterfinals on Friday, although the Wolverines have a No. 1 seed locked up regardless of who they play and what the result is.
Michigan State – No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
Michigan State had one of its better offensive weeks of the season, but couldn’t use the high-octane offense to secure an undefeated week. The Spartans defended their home court against Rutgers with a 91-87 win on Senior Night. But in a road game with arch-rival Michigan, Michigan State couldn’t quite keep up with the Wolverines, falling 90-80. However, due to the other teams around Michigan State taking worse losses throughout the week, the Spartans moved up in the projected bracket once again. Michigan State will try to keep its No. 2 seed this week at the Big Ten Tournament, as it feels like a potential matchup with Nebraska in the semifinals would decide who gets a No. 2 seed and who doesn’t, depending on how far Iowa State advances in the Big 12 Tournament.
Illinois – No. 2 Seed (No. 8 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 Seed (No. 8 overall)
The Fighting Illini had two games against teams at the bottom of the Big Ten standings, and took full advantage of the opportunity to take some momentum into the postseason. Illinois demolished Oregon 80-54 at home before winning a tighter matchup against Maryland 78-72 on the road. The Fighting Illini aren’t guaranteed to end up on the two-seed line on Selection Sunday, and it would likely take a run to the finals to completely secure that spot. However, Illinois doesn’t have any scenarios where it would fall below a No. 3 seed, which should give it a relatively easy first-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament, no matter what happens in the Big Ten Tournament.
Nebraska – No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 9 overall)
The Cornhuskers finished their trip out west, but couldn’t cap it off with a victory, falling 72-52 to UCLA on the road. Nebraska then played a hard-fought rivalry game against Iowa at home, dominating the overtime period to claim an 84-75 victory. The Cornhuskers locked up their highest finish ever in conference play with the win against Iowa, and could work their way into position for a No. 2 seed if they can win at least two games in the Big Ten Tournament, especially if one of those wins is against Michigan State. Regardless, Nebraska won’t be falling below a No. 3 seed and will be in a great position to earn the first NCAA Tournament victory in school history.
Purdue – No. 3 Seed (No. 12 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 11 overall)
Purdue continued to look less and less like the preseason AP No. 1 team in the country this week. The Boilermakers fought through an incredibly sloppy performance against Northwestern to claim a 70-66 win on the road, but fell at home 97-93 to Wisconsin, ending the season with five home losses for the first time since 2019-20 (when Purdue was just 16-15 overall). So, what does a bracketologist do with a resume like Purdue’s? Realistically, the Boilermakers have solid enough metrics that the lackluster play at the end of the season still isn’t enough to move them down to a No. 4 seed, but an exit from the Big Ten Tournament without a win could definitely change that. The ugly eye test recently would probably say that Purdue isn’t playing like a top-12 team in the country right now, but looking at the resume from start to finish, it’s hard to find more than ten significantly better resumes.
Wisconsin – No. 6 Seed (No. 22 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 Seed (No. 26 overall)
Wisconsin hammered Maryland 78-45 and beat Purdue 97-93 on the road, spoiling Senior Day in West Lafayette. How about the Badgers? In a year where seemingly no one has the metrics, a healthy roster, or enough quality wins to move up to the No. 6 seed line, Wisconsin has sprinted through that open door by claiming marquee wins throughout the season, capped off by the win at Mackey Arena over the weekend. The Badgers have beaten six of the top-eight teams in the conference standings at least once this season. The exceptions? Nebraska, which played Wisconsin back in December before the Badgers improved a ton, and Wisconsin itself (unfortunately, you can’t beat all of the top eight if you’re in the top eight yourself). Despite some losses here and there, especially in the early part of the season, the Badgers have too many good wins to fall below a No. 6 seed.
UCLA – No. 8 Seed (No. 29 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 10 Seed (No. 40 overall, Last Four Byes)
The Bruins closed out the season in style, winning two games by 20+ points in Los Angeles (even though one of those games was a road game). UCLA defeated Nebraska 72-52 at home to move from the “Last Four Byes” group into single-digit seed territory, and backed up that victory with an 89-68 win against USC on the road. The Bruins are starting to look like the elite team they were supposed to be heading into the season, and were able to jump almost three entire seed lines with the two huge wins this week. There’s a chance that UCLA could get to a No. 7 seed with a few wins at the Big Ten Tournament, although the most important thing to note is that there is no longer any talk of the Bruins being on the bubble at the end of the season.
Ohio State – No. 9 Seed (No. 33 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 43 overall, Last Four In)
Ohio State had the most important stretch of play in its entire season this week. The Buckeyes were squarely on the bubble, and on the right side of it after beating Purdue to end last week, but the schedule wasn’t a typical Big Ten week of Quad 1 games. Ohio State had two landmines on its schedule, where losses could put it on the outside looking in, while wins wouldn’t do much for its resume. The Buckeyes maximized their opportunities with two commanding victories, starting with a 94-62 win against Penn State on the road and ending with a 91-78 win against Indiana at home. Both wins were just Quad 2 victories, but given the margin of victory in both games and pretty much every other bubble team losing this weekend, the Buckeyes have moved from a shaky position to a very solid position.
Iowa – No. 9 Seed (No. 36 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 8 Seed (No. 31 overall)
The Hawkeyes fell twice against two of the top teams in the conference, losing 71-68 to Michigan at home and falling 84-75 to Nebraska in overtime on the road. Iowa has officially fallen back to the patented Big Ten pseudo-bubble team. The Hawkeyes are 10-10 in conference play, which has historically been the benchmark for an NCAA Tournament bid (as long as it is paired with a decent performance in non-conference play). They have one big upset (against Nebraska) and a few other solid wins (Ohio State, Indiana, UCLA) against potential NCAA Tournament teams, while having good enough predictive metrics that they can’t fall all the way onto the true bubble, but could easily end up with a double-digit seed.
Indiana – No. 11 Seed (No. 46 overall, Last Team In)
Previous seeding: First Four Out
Indiana absolutely destroyed Minnesota 77-47 at home to snap its four-game losing streak. The Hoosiers were still squarely on the bubble and had a chance to make a massive leap within that group against Ohio State, but fell 91-78 on the road. The Hoosiers missed an opportunity this weekend, but still will have an opportunity to play their way into solid NCAA Tournament positioning with a few quality wins in the Big Ten Tournament. However, Indiana will also need help from a lot of teams in other conferences to feel safe, and without at least beating Purdue – Indiana’s opponent in the third round if they win their first game – the Hoosiers will be sweating all of Selection Sunday, hoping to hear their name called, even if they’re currently just barely on the right side of the bubble.
USC – In Consideration
Previous seeding: Next Four Out
The Trojans fell 91-72 to Washington and 89-68 to UCLA. USC’s seven-game losing streak is the longest in the conference by far. The Trojans will rematch with Washington on Wednesday in the Big Ten Tournament. This late in the season, it’s impossible to have a chance to move from this far out of the projected field into a comfortable at-large bid. Given how bad USC has played recently, it’s possible that the Trojans would get the benefit of the doubt with a run to the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament, but in all likelihood, USC could only get in as a bid stealer.
Washington – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Washington had an up-and-down week, claiming a 91-72 blowout victory against USC before falling 85-79 in a dramatic finish on the road against Oregon. The Huskies will face USC in the Big Ten Tournament, needing to win it all to make the big dance.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Golden Gophers fell 77-47 to Indiana in an ugly road loss, but turned around the week with a hard-fought 67-66 victory against Northwestern. The victory gave Minnesota a bit of momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament, where it will take on Rutgers in its first game.
Northwestern – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Wildcats fell in crushing fashion twice this week. Northwestern had Purdue on the ropes on Senior Night for the ‘Cats, leading by as many as 11 points, including a nine-point halftime lead, but lost 70-66. The Wildcats had the final possession of the game on the road against Minnesota, but couldn’t get a shot to go, losing 67-66. Northwestern will play Penn State in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament.
Oregon – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Oregon fell 80-54 to Illinois on the road, but the Ducks did claim a bounce-back win against Washington 85-79. Oregon has been playing better at the end of the season, and although the Ducks couldn’t get it done against Illinois, they could be an interesting team to watch in the Big Ten Tournament.
Penn State – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Nittany Lions couldn’t follow up their big win against Iowa with any more upsets this week. Penn State lost 94-62 in its final home game of the season against Ohio State, then fell 74-62 to Rutgers in the season finale. The Nittany Lions will play Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament.
Maryland – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Maryland had a tale of two completely different games this week. The Terrapins fell 78-45 on the road against Wisconsin with a dismal offensive performance, but Maryland played Illinois a lot closer, even though it lost 78-72. The ‘Terps will play Oregon in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Rutgers lost 91-87 to Michigan State on the road in the middle of the week. While the final score of that game was deceivingly close, there was no deception over the weekend when the Scarlet Knights beat Penn State 74-62. Rutgers has won two of its last three games and carries a tiny bit of momentum into a Big Ten Tournament matchup against Minnesota.
